FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES AT THE URFL READY TO ROLL!

I've set up a few leagues to get started in 2013. The ones available right now are pretty early drafts so require a bit of planning, but can satisfy that urge for July. I'll be putting up more and higher dollar leagues in the coming weeks as needed.

Notice all the leagues are named after undrafted NFL stars.

To join a league, email me boss@ursheep.com, or use the JOIN US button to send a message through here. I'll contact you ASAP with your league assignment confirmation. We'll worry about franchise fees after your league is full. Franchise fees will be made via Leaguesafe.com and winnings paid out the same way BEFORE the NFL Super Bowl.

Be sure the read the rules in the URFL LEAGUES tab above, the actual available leagues are listed in a table just below them. You also might want to read some of my early posts about why I started this website. I have dozens of references of people who have played in the past and in fact I've been running a couple of private leagues, not listed here, for the past 11 years.

If you find higher payouts anywhere, you let me know, so I can play there instead. As is, after almost 15 years online, I know my payouts are higher than anyone's.

Any questions feel free to email me.

Let's kick it off!

Angelo
boss@ursheep.com

Fantasy Football Player Rankings: UR's June Top 120

Since it is all the rage to make NFL Top player lists this time of year, it only seems fair that there be a list made that ranks players for fantasy football point production purposes. While I have done this ranking already by position (see the "Preseason Rankings" tab, above), and will amend that page as necessary, this list may be considered my order of selection were I to draft today. Don't confuse this player ranking with an evaluation of talent, or of a player's value to his team. I also will not amend this list, but put up one similar, and updated, in July.

The rule assumptions are for a PPR league such as I run. See the URFL Leagues page (tab above) for more info on that, as well as scoring and lineup details.

1. Adrian Peterson - Has to be #1 right now.
2. Doug Martin - Almost getting too popular now. Sophomore slump?
3. Arian Foster - If he's healthy he stays here.
4. Ray Rice - Still the man on passing downs.
5. Alfred Morris - Like him, hard to take him here though in PPR.
6. CJ Spiller - Don't forget about FredJax, but dude can move.
7. Calvin Johnson - Seems safer to me than RBs to follow.
8. Jamaal Charles - Reid will use him often. Will he survive?
9. Trent Richardson - I'll let you have him, but belongs here.
10. Dez Bryant - Special abilities and I want him.
11. Brandon Marshall - Scored more PPR points than Megatron 2012.
12. Marshawn Lynch - Michael, Harvin,  and rock hands drop him.
13. Steven Jackson - Stays only if he gets 3rd down work.
14. Stevan Ridley - Assuming he'll be ready and get 2012 numbers.
15. Andre Johnson - Only Hopkins drops him a tad.
16. Matt Forte - Can score in bunches in PPR.
17. Chris Johnson - Assuming he'll be the 3rd down back.
18. AJ Green - Something bugs me about him. Seems thin...
19. Maurice Jones-Drew - Assuming he returns to his old job.
20. Demaryius Thomas - Beware of all those target-hogs in DEN...
21. Julio Jones - Should be higher but is a big play guy.
22. LeSean McCoy - New coach, Bryce Brown, call me skeptical.
23. Randall Cobb - A steal here, but lots of target competition.
24. Drew Brees - Sorry can't wait any longer on Brees.
25. Aaron Rodgers - Almost a sure 15 + points every week.
26. Peyton Manning - Probably should be higher
27. Roddy White - Like a Timex.
28. Percy Harvin - It's all where you take the chance...
29. Vincent Jackson - Underrated WR. PPR hurts him here.
30. DeMarco Murray - Would like to see him play 16 games.
31. LeVeon Bell - Assuming he becomes the PIT workhorse.
32. Jimmy Graham - Good but not worth his ADP. TE is deep.
33. Rob Gronkowski - If he shows up Game 1 he passes Graham.
34. Tom Brady - Seems to be dinking and dunking a lot.
35. Cam Newton - Must run in TDs to retain this value.
36. Darren Sproles - Gets PPR points when he plays. Always.
37. David Wilson - Allegedly will be the workhorse. We'll see.
38. Darren McFadden - Will be given another chance.
39. Larry Fitzgerald - Could be in decline mode...
40. Jordy Nelson - A slight risk, but big possible rewards.
41. Eric Decker - A steal here to me, and could be #1 in DEN.
42. BenJarvus Green-Ellis - If he caught passes would be higher.
43. Russell Wilson - A winner and stats from 2012 will rise.
44. Colin Kaepernick - Running ability a plus.
45. Matt Ryan - Virtual tie with Kaepernick.
46. Tony Gonzalez - Safest TE pick to me.
47. Jason Witten - 80 balls, maybe a few TDs too.
48. Reggie Bush - They'll feed him. LeShoure and Bell?
49. Lamar Miller - Give him a shot here. Beware of Gilly!
50. Danny Amendola - a PPR asset anywhere he goes.
51. Tony Romo - Free to fling + little run game = POINTS.
52. Robert Griffin - Steal him as your QB2 and tick somebody off.
53. Andrew Luck - Same here. Could be a steal here.
54. Aaron Hernandez - If no Gronk, he goes up.
55. Danario Alexander - Big plays, not much PPR.
56. Cecil Shorts - Like Steve Smith Jr. Needs to fight somebody.
57. Stevie Johnson - 80 balls easy even if you threw to him.
58. Eddie Lacey - Taking a gamble here. He can play.
59. Montee Ball - Many mouths to feed in the Munchie State.
60. Chris Ivory - Assuming he starts and makes it through camp.
61. Ryan Matthews - If you need a guy why not. It's a new day.
62. Wes Welker - Older, and see Bronco player comments above.
63. Anquin Boldin - Could get Crabtree's stats.
64. Steve Smith - Lack of TDs is a concern.
65. Matthew Stafford - May have topped out in 2011.
66. Torrey Smith - Safe starter. Could make a leap.
67. Rashard Mendenhall - If you need a RB. Think handcuff.
68. Zac Stacy - Just a good solid runner will get time.
69. Pierre Garcon - Well they do call it FOOT ball.
70. Dwayne Bowe - Good WR, needs the ball in his hands.
71. Mike Wallace - First of two big money grabs. Will play.
72. Greg Jennings - Second of two money grabs. Will play.
73. Lance Moore - Quietly a solid WR.
74. James Jones - Can he repeat 2012 success?
75. Mark Ingram - Can he catch anything with Sproles there?
76. Ahmad Bradshaw - He will surface and he will play some games.
77. Victor Cruz - The only Giant WR I want in 2013 is Randle
78. TY Hilton - With more balls coming his way watch out.
79. Mike Williams - Now a fine WR, better QB play and he's a WR2.
80. DeSean Jackson - If he had head on straight had WR1 talent.
81. DeAndre Hopkins - I like him this year. Schaub up to it?
82. Miles Austin - 'Boys will throw it a bunch. Check his health.
83. Antonio Brown - Solid, won't win you any games by himself.
84. Tavon Austin - Worth a shot at this point. But that offense..
85. Hakeem Nicks - I'll let you take him 40 picks early.
86. Joe Flacco - If his confidence stays up sky's the limit.
87. Eli Manning - Best QB left if you still need one.
88. Kenny Britt - Still top TD option in TEN. Playmaker.
89. Denarius Moore - See Britt comment, but for OAK.
90. Josh Gordon - Suspension + CLE offense = downgrade.
91. Jeremy Maclin - Maclin to me means mediocity.
92. DeAngelo Williams - Pundits asking for wrong guy's release..
93. Ben Roethlisberger - Biggest wildcard at QB in 2013.
94. Greg Olsen - Begin TE run here. Look at his numbers.
95. Kyle Rudolph - Long as Ponder is QB, Rudy is an option.
96. Vernon Davis - Always drafted too high. Inconsistency.
97. Bryce Brown - Freak RB, needs discipline then look out.
98. Andre Brown - Utilization is in question right now.
99. Andy Dalton - Pivotal season for a fiery competitor.
100. Carson Palmer - A comeback season and Luck 2012 stats.
101. Shane Vereen - You just never know.
102. Mikel LeShoure - Must stay healthy but will play.
103. Aaron Dobson - Probably Lloyd 2012 numbers. He can catch.
104. Owen Daniels - Solid when healthy. Scahub looks his way.
105. Sidney Rice - Technically still #1 WR in SEA.
106. Cordarelle Patterson - The new Harvin in Minnesota.
107. Giovanni Bernard - Change of pace only?
108. Stepfan Taylor - Will win this job eventually.
109. Rueben Randle - You'll let me have him here.
110. Fred Jackson - Reliable vet still knows the game well.
111. Antonio Gates - Too much value to pass at this point.
112. Heath Miller - Recovery questions only have him this low.
113. Jeremy Kerley - Best WR option in green NY.
114. Vick Ballard - Talk about Bradshaw drops him right now.
115. Greg Little - Has all the tools, worry about the worker.
116. Dennis Pitta - Expect Dickson to dig in to his production.
117. Brandon Myers - Giants like the TE near the red zone.
118. Malcolm Floyd - Again, look at his numbers with Rivers.
119. Jordan Cameron - New TEs will come forward in 2013.
120. Rob Housler - Has a golden opportunity to make a huge leap.
(tie)Chris Givens - Tough to build with new toys added.

PPR Fantasy Football Leagues and DROPS

Point-per reception leagues are extremely popular variations of standard fantasy football leagues. These PPR leagues most often score one point per each reception made. It is a fun and exciting variant on the traditional game, and has a long tradition of its own.

Drafting for PPR leagues is a bit different because of this one extra point per catch. Determing at what point TDs and yardage is worth more than dink-and-dunk grabs is one reason for the intrigue. It takes a bit more thought, as well as knowledge of stats, NFL team gameplans, and so on, to succeed in a PPR league. Too much emphasis on chasing receptions inevitably leads to letting other talent go by, but at the same time if you ignore the PPR, you're going to be angry when the 6 receptions for 40 yards stat line beats your TD and 30 yards. PPR is, in a way, a whole different beast.

If you're familiar with PPR leagues, I've already said too much, so let me get to the point. That is, to the MINUS one point. I believe that in PPR leagues any dropped pass should be a negative (-1). If a player is going to be rewarded for a catch, most of which are routine grabs, he should as well be penalized for failing to snag catchable passes. A drop should cost you.

Most fantasy league hosts do not yet offer a minus one. When it becomes an option I will utilize it for some leagues. It's now June, so I'll start setting up more leagues soon. Email me or use the button above to reserve your spots. I'll also take requests for buddy leagues if you have some people you want to play with in the same league.

Fantasy Football 2013: Team Power

In fantasy football you don't always take the best players.

Deciding which NFL players to draft for a fantasy football team is the first prerequisite for success. Many enthusiasts of the fantasy ball like to think this-or-that strategy is best, and follow it like a map to secret treasure, often guarding the strategy as they would such a map. Even some writers in this genre will hold back a trick or two, and deviate from their list they have rewritten 37 times since June, come draft time.

Few approaches to drafting are more popular than the theory which says you should select for your fantasy team those real-world NFL players who are the most talented. Rather than carry this out to a treatise laden with history and probabilities for proof, let me just say that no matter how talented any player is, that player must get chances for him to help your fantasy team. It is therefore opportunity, and not talent, that should be the first guide for your draft day selections.

This in mind, it may be beneficial to grade overall team abilities and strengths. Some teams pass well, and they usually boast three or even four pass catchers who are draftable in fantasy, because all of them get ample opportunities. Even the second string WR, however, on a run-first team, is a risky proposition. The same is true in the converse: the Packers running backs as a group have not been very successful since the team began passing most of the time, for example, and the same is true of the Saints. Here then is a list of each team with two grades. The first grade is overall offense rating. This is derived from speed of the offense, offensive efficiency, and amount of time it spends on the field, opening up opportunities for its fantasy players. The second grade is the passing offense, and the third is for the rushing offense. When choosing your players during your drafts this year, and you are undecided between two players when your choice comes, your best bet is to pick the one whose offense gives the most chances to players at his position.

The grades are based on projected starting rosters. Exceptions are noted below each division.

New England Patriots: Offense A; Rushing B Passing A 
Miami Dolphins: Offense C-; Rushing C Passing D 
New York Jets: Offense C; Rushing C Passing C 
Buffalo Bills: Offense C; Rushing B Passing C-
-Notes: Dolphins hope WR moves pay off but will they with Tannehill under center and the slow pace of that offense...Geno Smith can help raise both Jets grades by himself, if he is up to the task...I like Spiller and Jackson in Buffalo but they lose points as I'm not sure if Manuel is an upgrade over Fitzpatrick.

Houston Texans: Offense B+; Rushing A Passing B
Indianapolis Colts: Offense B; Rushing C Passing A
Tennessee Titans: Offense C; Rushing B Passing C
Jacksonville Jaguars: Offense D; Rushing B Passing D
-Notes: Assuming Colts offense stays the same...if Fitzpatrick wins the job in Tennessee the passing grade goes up one letter, same thing if Henne wins it in JAX.

Baltimore Ravens: Offense B; Rushing A Passing C 
Pittsburgh Steelers: Offense B; Rushing B Passing B
Cincinnati Bengals: Offense B; Rushing C Passing B+
Cleveland Browns: Offense C; Rushing B+ Passing C
-Notes: Assuming Bell wins the RB job in PIT, and Weeden improvement in CLE.

Denver Broncos: Offense A-; Rushing B+ Passing A  
Kansas City Chiefs: Offense C; Rushing B+ Passing C 
San Diego Chargers: Offense C-; Rushing D Passing B
Oakland Raiders: Offense D; Rushing D Passing D
-Notes: If Wilson wins the QB job in OAK, up the passing grade one letter.

Dallas Cowboys: Offense B; Rushing C Passing A
Washington Redskins: Offense B+; Rushing A Passing B 
New York Giants: Offense B; Rushing C Passing B+
Philadelphia Eagles: Offense C-; Rushing B- Passing D
-Notes: Assuming Griffin plays all year and Wilson starts in NY. If Brown gets more carries for the Giants, raise the grade 1/2 a letter...also assuming Vick wins the job in Philly...if Barkley takes over rather than Foles (eventually), raise the passing grade one letter...not sure yet about the tempo in Philly.

New Orleans Saints: Offense B+; Rushing C+ Passing A 
Atlanta Falcons: Offense B; Rushing B- Passing A-
Tampa Bay Bucs: Offense B; Rushing A Passing B-
Carolina Panthers: Offense D; Rushing C- Passing C-
-Notes: Counting Cam Newton in both categories, which is part of the low grades...it's not a matter of talent there, rather line play and execution, also SLOW SLOW SLOW.

Green Bay Packers: Offense B+; Rushing C Passing A
Minnesota Vikings: Offense B-; Rushing A Passing D
Detroit Lions: Offense B; Rushing B Passing A-
Chicago Bears: Offense C; Rushing B Passing D
Notes: Love Brandon Marshall but he can't save Cutler and the passing game himself for this grade. Being gratuitous with DET RB grade because I like their depth and pace of play.

San Francisco 49ers: Offense B; Rushing B Passing B
Seattle Seahawks: Offense A-; Rushing A- Passing A-
St. Louis Rams: Offense C; Rushing C Passing C
Arizona Cardinals: Offense C; Passing B+ Rushing C
-Notes: If Stepfan Taylor gets the feature back role in ARI, raise their rushing grade to a B+...raise the Rams RB grade to a B if its Zac Stacy there.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC South

AFC South

Houston Texans: A strong team got even stronger through a pretty good draft. As a team, though, you have to question what it will take to make the next step, a leap forward many have predicted the last three years. They need to go from contender to Super Bowl. This draft was so good you could make the argument that they now have all the pieces and this is the year. Doubts still linger, though. Can Matt Schaub win the big ones, under pressure? Is the back end of that defense shored up enough to prevent late comebacks by Texan opponents? Can they find somebody to take at least some pressure off of Andre Johnson?

DeAndre Hopkins, the team's first pick, has the attitude and second gear (both during a play and through a game) to be a difference maker, and is a perfect downfield threat as Andre Johnson now  becomes more of a possession receiver, albeit a dandy one. With Owen Daniels in the middle this offense is now locked and loaded. Can Schaub deliver the football, and is Kubiak aggressive enough to speed up the tempo? DJ Swearinger, I swear (as does he), will be an impact player at the NFL level. Both these first picks reflect aggressive attitudes, which is exactly what this team needs, more JJ Wattishness. But again, will the head coach unleash the fury that this team could be? This may be his last chance so he should come out swinging. Third selection Brennan Williams will help the OL. Sam Montogomery was a steal at pick #95, if he can stay focused that Texans DL could be monstrously disruptive. Trevardo Williams ensures depth on the edge. I liked this draft except for the Round 6 picks, as I believe there was better value to be had from a talent perspective, which is what you're looking for in late round fliers. Grade: A-

Fantasy Implications: Hopkins should win the Houston #2 WR job. Historically, that status has not been a very lucrative fantasy goldmine, however, it is arguable that the Texans have never had anyone of the caliber of The Cannibal at WR #2. This, coupled with the attention still given Johnson, makes Hopkins someone very draftable, but proceed with caution. Remember he still has to beat out last year's draftees. In the best case scenario for Hopkins, he becomes the next Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Coming into this draft, up-and-coming Colts had a few problem spots to address, especially on the interior of the offensive line. They also needed an upgrade over departed Dwight Freeney, to put some more pressure on the passer and help out in run situations. The secondary is also a work in progress. It should be noted that the Colts had been active in free agency in the months prior to the draft, signing journeymen center Samson Satele, guard Donald Thomas, and tackle Gosder Cherilus, among others, to try and fortify that line for Andrew Luck. On defense, the offseason brought Aubrayo Franklin, Vontae Davis, and LaRon Landry. To say that the Colts defense will have a different look in 2013 is an understatement. All of these defenders, and probably all the linemen too, will start for the team. In a way, the Colts used free agency as a draft, especially considering the players they picked up.

As for the draft itself, they got a raw but possible difference maker at DE by picking Bjorn Woerner. Scouts were all over the place on this kid, but he is relatively new to the game, yet is aware of many of its nuances. It also helps that he has played with some of the best players in the country, and against some of the best in all the land. He will start right away, soon getting more playing time than Ricky Jean-Francois, and definitely part of any rotation. They simply need him to play, don't be surprised if they move him, or someone else around, to keep him on the field all three downs. Hugh Thornton plays with heart and motor but was a bit of a reach with the team's 3rd Round pick. Khaled Holmes, selected in Round 4, is a much better pick, but both these linemen are versatile and should settle in somewhere in short order. Montori Hughes was an excellent value pick in Round 5. Yes, the team went directly for needs, ignoring more talented players at other spots, and apparently confident that Davis and  Landry have fixed the leaky secondary. But they were solid picks in any case, showing an attempt to fortify the toughest spots to fill. If you don't value DBs very highly....Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Andrew Luck's value goes up. He was awful good last year. Considering he had no time to throw the ball on too many occasions, usually due to unacceptable pressure directly up the middle (the hole still left behind by Jeff Saturday), if these draft picks, and free agents, can help seal those seams just a second longer, Luck becomes one of the top five fantasy QBs in 2013, regardless of how many games the Colts win or lose, bet on it. Other than that, Kerwynn Williams has some talent, but he is raw and still learning the position, it will take a lot for him to unseat Donald Brown as Vick Ballard's backup. Williams might make Delone Carter and Deji Karim expendable, though.

Tennessee Titans: Another team with many positions of need is the Tennessee Titans. It is true, as many have already said, that problems up front on the line, lack of pressure on the QB, bad tackling, the lack of leadership on both sides of the ball, and many similar problems exist on this team, and it will indeed take more than this draft to deal with all of them and make the Titans a contender. Yet, I like the fact that this team is taking its lumps while building from the inside-out, that is, by trying to strengthen the trenches first. In fact this is the Titans' really main deficiency. Their offense is decent even with Locker or Fitzpatrick behind center, and their skill position players are pretty darned good. The defense needs a linebacker or two and some DB help, but all in all it caused quite a few turnovers last year, and had its moments.

The Tennessee draft, with the exception of the choice of WR Justin Hunter in Round 2, tried to directly address the team's starting lineup needs. Hunter was a luxury pick, perhaps Kenny Britt insurance. I like the potential, but not with other more pressing needs. Chance Warmack will start in short time and try and help give Fitzpatrick more than 2.4 seconds to throw. He was a solid pick at #10, slightly higher than he should have been selected, but the Titans needed him, and Munchak, perhaps justifiably, will always defer to linemen in a push. Bidi Wreh-Wilson will get playing time also, there is no telling yet how much. He, too, was selected slightly higher that he should have been, again because of need, but also because of the run on DBs. Their second Round 3 pick, and their picks in Rounds 4 and 5, are where the Titans flexed their draft acumen. Zaviar Gooden will make a veteran expendable at LB, as will Brian Schwenke on the OL. Lavar Edwards, a DE/LB tweener, is a poor man's Dion Jordan, a steal in the 5th Round, and a starter by season's end. Grade: B, would be a solid A had they grabbed a pass rusher instead of Hunter.

Fantasy Implications: Hunter, who will be at least a WR #3 on this team.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will be new-look in more ways than one in 2013. One thing is for certain. The draft has come and gone and still the starting QB job will come down Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, as the Jags didn't even point in the general direction of a signal caller. Interesting facts about Blaine Gabbert have recently come to light, such as which mostly say that his sub-par play so far has been more due to the inefficiency of his offensive line than his accuracy and decision-making. But time to throw is not all about the line. Little sidesteps and movements while in the pocket, which actually open up the pocket and give the blockers time, were absent from Gabbert's game. When he got thrown off his reads, his movements and decisions were routinely the wrong ones. His peripheral vision is Kevin Kolb-like, and very minimal. He locks in on his intended receivers, leading not only to incompletions and interceptions, but also to clues picked up on by all the defenders. This, in turn, makes it difficult to sustain a block. All this to say the Jags will struggle again under Gabbert, and I am not even sure his teammates are on board. I fully expect to see Henne play before the halfway point of the season, for the simple reason that he has better pocket presence and awareness.

So, the big story being the Jaguars NOT choosing a QB, what did they do with their eight picks? Luke Joeckel is a good pick no matter what, they almost had to take him. John Cyprien could turn out to be the top DB in this entire draft class, unheralded a bit being from a smaller school, but a machine in the defensive backfield and a playmaker as well, He might need a bit of help with learning coverage schemes, but he has the heart and the tools to pay big dividends for the Jaguars quickly. Dwayne Gratz will also contribute immediately, will struggle a bit, but will play anyway. Ace Sanders will probably play special teams or return kicks, but the WR chosen one pick later, Denard Robinson, could be opposite Cecil Shorts sooner than later, and was probably a better selection. Obviously Jacksonville didn't need two WRs, but rightfully they snagged an available Robinson. I like Josh Evans, too, and consider him a steal in Round 6. Grade: A, and probably wise to wait until 2014 to bring in a rookie QB.

Fantasy Implications: Sanders and Robinson could be factors, especially Robinson. He has Percy Harvin-like versatility. Considering Justin Blackmon's problems, Massaquoi's ineffectiveness, and Shipley's slowing down and aging, by necessity alone either one or the other could contribute quickly. Just remember who is throwing the ball. The fortunes of the Jaguars WRs will rise as soon as Henne gets the starting job.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC North

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens wasted no time in replenishing their depleted defense. With the luxury of an adequately stocked offense, this team used their selections expertly to maximize their draft and take players who can help immediately. Matt Elam, with the possible exception of Kenny Vaccaro, was the best safety in the draft, and Arthur Brown, grabbed in Round 2, will start immediately at linebacker. Brandon Williams, who has gone from cleaning Port-O-Lets to nose tackle in the NFL, can be considered a steal at Pick #94 in the third round and, with Brown, can help ease the pain of losing Kruger. Even tackles Ricky Wagner and Ryan Jensen could be impact assets.

Ozzie Newsome knows talent and it's difficult to question someone with his track record. I liked this draft, with some caveats. Is second-year man and brother of QB Bruce, Gino Gradkowski, the answer at center, after the retirement of Matt Birk? Apparently the Ravens think so, choosing to avoid the position in the draft. Certainly one of the tackles they took would better have been an interior lineman or center? Also, Aaron Mellette is the only WR they selected. He is a Boldin-type player, without deep speed but with good hands and ability to separate with his body, and it is very possible the best GM in football has unearthed another small-school gem. However, given the departure of Anquin Boldin this puts a ton of faith on Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss. I also think the Ravens could have traded out of Round 1 completely, and that Elam, while he should be a star, could have been had more towards the middle of Round 2, and the team might have gained a pick in the process. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: The Ravens D should be different, but just as good, if not better, than they were in 2012. They still merit a top-10 defense/special teams pick, top 5 if Jacoby Jones continues to return kicks, not a given considering their WR situation. In my opinion, and looking at the roster, the Ravens will play quite a bit of two-TE sets in 2013, utilizing Pitta and sometimes Dickson as receivers. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (4th Round compensatory pick) could see the field in an H-back type role, and in passing situations, but is no fantasy factor and might not do anything other than work special teams. I have a strange feeling Baltimore drafted Mellette to replace Boldin, keep him on the radar. He has all the ability to beat out underachieving Tandon Doss for the #3 WR role, and could in fact be a better every down complement to Torrey Smith; Jacoby Jones is more suited as WR #3 and kick returner.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are on the rise, and things have been looking up mostly due to this team's strategy of taking the "best available player," usually regardless of position or need. Their 2013 draft was no different, but this time I think they should probably have deviated from their recent strategy. Don't get me wrong, most of their selections were good ones. Giovani Bernard was one of the best backs (#5) on my board, and addresses a need. With a little coaching up by the best, Margus Hunt (6'8", 280) is a monster of a man that will pay JJ Watt-like dividends in short order. Shawn Williams can, and should earn at least a nickel role in the Bengals' secondary. Sean Porter is under-rated and will start immediately, he needs to play with more of an edge, but is a textbook LB; even Reid Fragel, drafted in Round 7, will stick and see playing time. 

The draft, on the whole, was awesome, enviable for many teams. My one problem is with choosing Tyler Eifert with Pick #21. Unless you envision surely you have the next Rob Gronkowski (hopefully, with better durability...) at TE available to you, you should NEVER draft a TE, in the NFL, in Round 1. The justification is this: since 1990, 23 TEs have been chosen in either Round 1 or Round 2 of the NFL draft; of these, Reggie Johnson, Derek Brown, Irv Smith, Lonnie Johnson, Cameron Cleeland, Rickey Dudley, Bubba Franks, and Reggie Kelly certainly did not live up to their draft positions. For Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, Kyle Rudolph, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen, the jury is still out. In 23 years, then, less than half of the TEs selected in Rounds 1 and 2 of an NFL draft could be said to have had any success worthy of their draft position. Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, and Tony Gonzalez were the only real hits. You could argue for the likes of the remaining guys - perhaps Eric Green, Kyle Brady, Jeremy Shockey, or Todd Heap - being successful, but remember they came at the expense of high draft picks, where you want a high success rate. Also note there is no mention of Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez, or Gronkowski, all of whom were later round selections. With all the hype, Eifert was destined to be a Round 1 pick. I just wouldn't have been the team to do it. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: Bernard has the talent to win a starting job away from Green-Ellis, but the law firm should still retain his short yardage and goal line duties in 2013, even given this best-case scenario for Giovani. Eifert will probably see the field in double TE sets and is worth a flier as a TE2, but no better, as long as Gresham is still around. It is possible he wrests the job away from Gresham, but not likely. An injury to Gresham, however, could open the door to Eifert's potential. He will be on the field in any case, how much is the question.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The black and gold always draft well, and this year was no exception, it is the key reason why Pittsburgh only rarely finds themselves out of contention come December. With more needs than usual, due not in the least to the losses of Mike Wallace and James Harrison, as well as declining play from Troy Polamalu, the Steelers had their work cut out for them, and came through with a very nice draft. 

With the selection of LeVeon Bell in Round 2 they grabbed the co-best RB on my board (with Monte Ball), and one with more breakaway ability. Jarvis Jones is an NFL-ready linebacker that fits into the types of things Pittsburgh has its LBs do. Markus Wheaton will attempt to replace Mike Wallace, and has the speed to do so. Shamarko Thomas is short but stout and a gamer that will start sooner than later. Even Landry Jones was a great pickup at QB, given their situation  with Big Ben. Overall a nice draft, I would have liked to see some more pizazz in the later rounds, and maybe some more trading of picks. Still, the top four picks are instant starters and fulfill needs. Jones could stick as Big Ben's successor. Terry Hawthorne has what it takes if he can refine his coverage skills. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: Markus Wheaton and LeVeon Bell will be well-known fantasy names by the end of this season. Bell only has to beat out the likes of Isaac Redman, and possibly Jonathan Dwyer, to win the starting Steelers RB job, historically and actually a lucrative fantasy goldmine. Helping his cause is the fact that head coach Mike Tomlin is no fan of the "backfield by committee" approach to running the football. Still, tread with a bit of caution, but be advised if you wait too long in your fantasy draft Bell will be gone, some time shortly after Chris Johnson goes. He bears watching very closely this preseason. Wheaton has just as large an opportunity. It's no secret that this young man was drafted to fill Wallace's shoes, and he will need to be successful soon. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown do not scare anyone by themselves, they need that vertical threat and, barring any trade for a WR, Wheaton is now it. 

Cleveland Browns: With only five picks in the 2013 draft the Browns had to make them count. Heading in the right direction, the Browns' only real question mark, on paper, was at the QB position (Rams and Dolphins being in a similar state), but like Miami QB was not addressed through this draft at all. I actually prefer Weeden to Campbell, and to Tannehill, for that matter, and while the team declares the position open, the draft indicates it will be Weeden taking the snaps in Cleveland. 

Barkevious Mingo is expected to be the next Jason Pierre-Paul, so say the pundits, but his college track record is nothing special. To me, he is too risky to take with the 6th overall selection, especially in a draft that was rich with big defensive linemen. Regardless, he will get time on the edge, especially on passing downs. Leon McFadden is Round 3 was excellent value, and he should earn a starting job and succeed in the NFL. In fact, I predict his presence will help make Cleveland's one of the better defenses in 2013. Don't be surprised if it is late-rounder Armonty Bryant who provides the real power off the edge, he's not as fast as Mingo, but is heavier and is an excellent value grab late. All in all an average draft. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: I like the defense in 2013, and they will be a top-15 squad if the offense helps out more than it did last year. Other than that, no fantasy possibilities came through this draft.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC West

AFC West

Denver Broncos: The immediate contributions by the Broncos' first two picks will define this draft. Sylvester Williams was a good grab that should help ease the pain of realizing Elvis has left the building. They also, in my opinion, took the co-best RB (1A with LeVeon Bell) available in this draft by selecting Monte Ball. The fact that these picks were made late in both Rounds 1 and 2 makes them even better choices.

With the exception of Quanterus Smith, who might surprise everyone and be on the field as much as Sly Williams in 2013, the rest of the Broncos' draft is no better than average. They could have had Kayvon Webster in the 5th round, for example. Zac Dysert is an intriguing pickup, he is fully able to win the backup job to Manning, just don't expect Peyton to be a willing mentor. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: Dysert, no matter what he does, will never see the field as long as Manning is upright. But keep an eye on him. The position to watch here is at RB, where Monte Ball has the skills to be a good full-time runner for this team. He is a natural workhorse back not unlike Knowshon Moreno was, only with better durability. That same Moreno, as well as (currently) Willis McGahee, and Ronnie Hillman, are all that stand in the way of Ball and a full-time job. I don't think the Broncos drafted Ball in Round 2 to play special teams, return kicks, or sit and learn. I believe they will play him, the question is, who else will get carries besides Ball? If I had to gamble now, I say they keep all four backs, unless they can trade one of the other three for a pick. Hillman is undraftable in fantasy in 2013 regardless of what happens, he is thought of by the team as at best a change-of-pace guy. Moreno is a good back, always has been, but has struggled to adjust to coming off the field in the pros; he is used to playing every down, and needs to get warmed up to be most effective, in fact I believe this going from full-time to part-time has contributed to his injury problems, and you see how much better he played when given the opportunity to be a three-down back last season. McGahee might have some left in the tank, but that remains to be seen, he was wearing down before last year's injuries and he could also be released. If I ran the team I trade or release McGahee OR Hillman, ride Moreno and groom Ball for the role. Definitely keep an eye on how this shakes out. Tavarres King is a decent WR, but there would have to be an injury for him to see much game time. He could return kicks, though.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs could have used their top position to acquire a few strategic pieces in the draft. This team's roster is talented and much better than last year's record would indicate. Drafting left tackle Eric Fisher number one overall is a case in point. They already had (and as of today still have) a good starting left tackle in Branden Albert, yet the team drafted as number one overall a starting left tackle anyway. Apparently owner and staff felt there were no positions of greater need, that's how talented is the roster.

In fact, over-estimating the talent of the players on this roster may have played a part in the Chiefs' very pedestrian draft. Kelce at TE is ignoring greater needs but is a decent pick in Round 3, Knile Davis is overrated at RB and probably could have been had two rounds later, Sanders Commings and Nico Johnson could find reserve spots, but nothing stands out as addressing needs. In fact, undrafted QB Tyler Bray could turn out to be the only gem, other than Fisher, in the long run. Moeaki and Fasano make the Travis Kelce selection even more of a head scratcher, it's quite possible they release Moeaki, unless Andy Reid intends to incorporate some two-TE offense. The Chiefs should have taken a WR early, in the spot they chose Kelce. Bowe and Avery are fine at WR, but behind them there is only unproven and so far unsuccessful depth, and nobody that scares you downfield. It was a position of greater need. A solid backup for Dontari Poe, a speedy edge rusher, all would have been better choices for this team. They got a great lineman, one they really didn't need, and that's about it. Grade: D

Fantasy Implications: Kelce is it. We know what Fasano and Moeaki can do. Kelce comes highly regarded, often compared to Rob Gronkowski in both playing style and off-field antics, and does show some skills. I bet he sees the field a lot and relegates Moeaki to strictly blocking duties. He's worth a late round grab as a TE2, even in a TE1 slot if he shows in preseason that he can take the job. Alex Smith and Reid both like throwing to the TE.

San Diego Chargers: Going into this draft the Bolts knew they had lots of holes to fill. The OL was a mess, LB and DB slots also needed upgrades, Matthews isn't getting the job done at RB and has aging Ronnie Brown behind him, Rivers is showing signs of decline, and there is still nobody at TE to give Gates' old legs a rest. The team took DJ Fluker with their first pick, essentially the best available tackle, with plenty of beef and motor but some character concerns. They took another chance on character by grabbing Te'o in Round 2, then snagged a good WR in Keenan Allen in Round 3. Their picks in Rounds 5 and 6, though, really make this draft better.

The Chargers should have traded up and landed one of the big two if they wanted a tackle. They also should be more aggressive in the free agent talks with available linemen. Non-aggressive would be a good way to describe this team's approach to this draft in general. Fluker will start right away, with all the goods and bads in place, and Te'o will play all three downs in San Diego because he is needed all three downs. Keenan Allen will compete with Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown for receptions after Danario Alexander and Gates get theirs. In the Williamses, though, Tourek and Steve, the Chargers found solid underrated value and both those players will not only make the 2013 San Diego squad, but also win starting roles. Steve Williams is small but reminds you of Brent Grimes with his tenacity and ball skills, and Tourek could very well be this year's Jason Pierre-Paul. Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Brad Sorensen, their last pick, could stick as Rivers' backup, but is no fantasy factor otherwise. Keenan Allen is the only other possibility. My guess is the team uses him to return kicks at first, then he eventually wins the 3rd receiver job.

Oakland Raiders: Arguably no team had more holes to fill coming into this draft than Da Raidas. Years of overpaying mediocre talent has taken its toll on this team. While the late Al Davis usually is cited as the cause, it must be remembered that Davis gave his coaches and GMs much respect and control over the team. He was in this way no more intrusive than Jerry Jones, or even Mr. Khan. It is, rather, the absence of talented leadership by players on the field that has promoted a losing, even giving-up attitude in Oakland the past few years. It seems this team has no leaders. Going into the draft, that should have been their priority. DJ Hayden, their first selection, could fill that role.  Menelik Watson is a nice pickup for the OL, but they did not do enough to grab value with their many late picks.

Watson will start on the line, and Hayden will start as well. Tyler Wilson could be the second Wilson to unseat a projected-to-start Matt Flynn, and Sio Moore should find his way into a starting LB role in this defense. But there are big question marks around all the other Raiders 2013 draft picks. They took two TEs in Kasa and Rivera, but they are both average propects on par with several current NFL free agents. They should have traded up to grab Kelce or Escobar if they wanted a TE, although they let a decent one go in Brandon Myers. Grade: C-

Fantasy Implications: Well it does get interesting from this perspective. As I have said, Tyler Wilson could show enough to sit Matt Flynn yet again and become the new staring Raiders QB. Latavius Murray is a RB selection to keep in your back pocket. He has a special skill set and has all the tools to win the lucrative backup job to Darren McFadden and, considering his competition, should do so easily. Keep an eye on the TE duo, too. David Ausberry should lose his starting job to one of them.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC East

The NFL draft's completion means the new season is underway. Here at the URFL, it means we will begin setting up our 2013 fantasy football leagues in just a few weeks. For fantasy franchise owners, the post-draft is a good time to look at the impact drafted players will have on their real world teams and, consequently, their fantasy point-producing possibilities. In this post I take a look at the AFC East team drafts, give each of them a grade, and then assess any projected fantasy impact.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots: The Pats did not get to pick until the 20th selection in Round 2, choosing to trade down and stockpile later picks. Apparently coach Belicheck and his staff found the talent just as good deeper into the draft. Still, you have to question this whole draft, not Coach's ability to spot talent, but rather when he chose to take the players he did. Most, if not all of them, could have been had later than when they were selected, and in this writer's opinion, missing out on any of them would not have been so devastating at all.

Had they retained their first round pick, New England could have had Ogletree, Carradine, Hankins, or Short. Instead they selected Jamie Collins in Round 2, a smart player who could start right away, but who was not anywhere near the value of those other defenders. Dobson is an OK receiver but, again, could have been had probably two rounds later, and Patterson would have been there for them in Round 1, too, had they chosen to go that route. Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon are wildcards and actually help this draft's grade because they could compete for jobs immediately, despite being lesser-known players. On those two we have to trust the Coach, but for now we can only grade what we see. GRADE: C-

Fantasy Implications: Dobson and Boyce have a chance at an opportunity and the situation is worth keeping an eye on, but other than that, don't expect any new fantasy producers up near Boston, at least via this draft.

2. Miami Dolphins: Under heavy fire and gasping for air, in Miami it is GM Ireland that everyone talks about, and the talk has not been good. Coach Philbin, it seems, has not yet been allocated any responsibility for any moves prior to last season. This year, though, Philbin will have to at least begin to bear some brunt of the responsibility. This draft, for instance, must include his impetus somewhere along the line. Regardless, the 'Phins were aggressive in this draft, trading up to grab Dion Jordan, then making a solid hit with Jamar Taylor in the 2nd. Clearly their "need" was playmaking defensive players, and they got two of the best in this draft.

Had Miami stayed put they would have certainly missed out on Jordan, but could have had Star Lotulelei, Sharif Floyd, Bjorn Woerner, Datone Jones, or even Ogletree. Remember Menelik Watson was taken by the Raiders with the pick they got from Miami, so theoretically they could have had any of those impact defenders, plus a slightly better lineman than Dallas Thomas. But it's hard to criticize this draft. Jordan was picked to play and he will start. Knowing Miami, Taylor will start right away also, and my bet would be Thomas starts some games, if not all of them. Will Davis is even money to win a job, at least as an extra nickel back. Even Gillislee, I predict, will get playing time. So, from that perspective, this draft is a success. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: You should watch the defense early in camp and in preseason because, for all the hooplah, they could be either better or worse than last year. Caleb Sturgis, the first kicker chosen in the draft, and one of three Gators taken by Miami in the late rounds, will be given every chance to win the job from the Carpenter, and my guess is he succeeds; those missed kicks by Carpenter last year stung. I am also supposing that Gillislee wins the backup role to Lamar Miller, and will supplant him if Miller struggles. One thing is for sure, Miami's backfield just got quicker. Forgetting for a minute about the questions at left tackle, one must first ask whether Tannehill is the answer. In many ways this team will go in 2013 as goes Tannehill.

3. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo does the bluff not only on football pundits but also on Ryan Nassib. We can only scantly imagine how he felt as Goddell went to the podium and said "...the Buffalo Bills select quarterback...EJ Manuel." All I'm hearing is a drain sound...Anyway, Buffalo's draft has to begin and end with Manuel. There are many questions we could ask here. Yes, the trade down was beneficial, but let's remember which slot they held, that same slot with which the Rams took Austin.

Could Manuel have been available in Round 2? I say, yes he could have been. Robert Woods is a fine receiver, and will help the Bills, but a fast slot man to complement Stevie would have been even better. Alonso is a high-motor guy I like to succeed in the NFL, he will start for the Bills, and speedster Marquise Goodwin could put TJ Graham's job in jeopardy as the third receiver. All in all Buffalo grabbed some nice players, but Manuel that early is a head scratcher, he probably could have been had in Round 3. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: A whole bunch. Kolb might best Manuel in accuracy but that's about it. I fully expect Manuel to win this QB job outright in camp, and the Bills will be dramatically improved because of the move. He will be ranked as a draftable QB somewhere around Jay Cutler range, and I will have him ahead of Cutler, Freeman, Locker, Tannehill, and many other known commodities. As for the other receivers, what they do in this west-cost offense will depend on the maturation of Manuel. If indeed he picks up the system quickly, as everyone seems to think he can do, all four of the receivers - Woods, Goodwin, Stevie, and Graham - must be put on the fantasy radar. If I had to choose today, I would draft Stevie, then Woods, and maybe take a late flier on Goodwin. Also expect rookie Dustin Hopkins, Manuel's fellow Nole, to win the Bills' kicking job.

4. New York Jets: The Jets made little noise in the draft, choosing to address needs with their picks, and also lucking out by grabbing their new starting QB - in Round 3. Brian Winters is a so-so lineman who will make the team but probably not the starting lineup, but the lineman to watch here is 5th rounder Oday Aboushi. He is big, very smart, and still learning the fine points of his craft. I think you will see the coaches take to him and make him into a starter by midseason.

Sheldon Richardson has the talent to be considered the steal of the draft at pick #13. While I think Dee Milliner was drafted too high, I think the Richardson pick does a flip-flop to correct the error. Really, it's LBs the Jets need, and they didn't so much as sniff one. Still, something had to be sacrificed. If I did their draft, I would have taken Ogletree, follwing it up with Richardson and then a DB like Trufant or Amerson. Yet, they added at least three starters, likely four, and let's not forget a Geno Smith, projected to go in Round 1 in a "QB light" draft, scooped up in Round 3. If Milliner succeeds, this draft is an A+. If he struggles, as I expect, A- anyway.

Fantasy Implications: Geno Smith has his faults, but he will be given the job as soon as Sanchez becomes, well, Sanchez-like. I would not bet the farm that Smith is the opening week starter, at least not yet, but he should see the field before the midway point of the season. If he wins the job he becomes very draftable in fantasy. Other than that, no new playmakers came to the Jets via the draft, but Chris Ivory, acquired via trade, suddenly complicates the backfield situation even more. Keep an eye out there.

Next time, the AFC West.

NFL Mock Draft 2013

URFL

2013 MOCK NFL DRAFT

Green=Undervalued

Red=Overvalued
Updated April 27, 2013 

Team	Actual Selection	URFL Predictions	URFL Recommends
Kansas City	Fisher	Eric "King" Fisher	Joeckel
Jacksonville	Joeckel	Geno "The Gun" Smith	Barkley
Oakland	Hayden	Star Loutulelei	Loutulelei
Philadelphia	L. Johnson	Luke "Doctor" Joeckel	Jordan
Detroit	Ansah	Dion "Nike" Jordan	Hayden
Cleveland	Mingo	Sharrif "Rock The Casbah" Floyd	Floyd
Arizona	Cooper	"Running" Lane Johnson	Fisher
Buffalo	Manuel	Barkevious "Kiko" Mingo	G. Smith
NY Jets	Milliner	Tavon "Kilometers" Austin	Austin
Tennessee	Warmack	Sheldon Richardson	Ogletree
San Diego	Fluker	Chance "Wehrmacht" Warmack	L. Johnson
Miami	Jordan	Dee "B" Milliner	Woerner
NY Jets	Richardson	Matt "Barks" Barkley	Milliner
Carolina	Loutulelei	Sylvester "Tweety" Williams	Vaccaro
New Orleans	Vaccaro	Kenny "Vac" Vaccaro	Trufant
St. Louis	Austin	Cordarelle "Corduroy" Patterson	Patterson
Pittsburgh	J. Jones	Ziggy "'s The" Ansah	Hankins
Dallas	Frederick	Jonathan "Super" Cooper	Cooper
NY Giants	Pugh	Alec "Guinness" Ogletree	Rhodes
Chicago	Long	DJ "No" Fluker	Warmack
Cincinnati	Eifert	Eddie "The Cat" Lacey	Ball
St. Louis	Ogletree	DJ Hayden	J. Jones
Minnesota	Floyd	Bjoern "To Be Wild" Woerner	Richardson
Indianapolis	Woerner	Cornelius "Tank" Carradine	Ansah
Minnesota	Rhodes	Xavier "Dusty" Rhodes	Hopkins
Green Bay	D. Jones	Jarvis "Redwine" Jones	Elam
Houston	Hopkins	Datone "Beach" Jones	Mingo
Denver	S. Williams	Johnathan "Double H" Hankins	Fluker
Minnesota	Patterson	John "Zip" Cyprien	J. Williams
Atlanta	Trufant	Jamar "Rip" Taylor	D. Jones
San Francisco	Reid	Jesse "The Body" Williams	Lacey
Baltimore	Elam	Matt "The Eliminator" Elam	Minter
END ROUND ONE	END ROUND ONE	END ROUND ONE	END ROUND ONE
Jacksonville	Cyprien	Menelik Watson	Carradine
San Francisco	Carradine	DeAndre "The Cannibal" Hopkins	Woods
Philadelphia	Ertz	Kevin "Munderland" Minter	D. Jones
Detroit	Slay	Desmond "The Bishop" Trufant	Cyprien
Cincinnati	Bernard	Damontre "Dinty" Moore	J. Taylor
Arizona	Minter	Jonathan "Take It To The" Banks	Banks
NY Jets	G. Smith	Bidi Wreh-Wilson	L. Jones
Tennessee	Hunter	Tyler "Extra" Eifert	S. Williams
Buffalo	Woods	Ryan "Nasty" Nassib	D. Moore
Miami	J. Taylor	Margus "Gus" Hunt	Okafor
Tampa Bay	Banks	Jamar "The Jam" Taylor	Watson
San Diego	Te'o	Eric "The" Reid	Hunt
Buffalo	Alonso	Jonathan Franklin	Hayden
Dallas	Escobar	Giovanni "The Saint" Bernard	Bernard
Pittsburgh	L. Bell	"Bad Bad" Arthur Brown	Reid
NY Giants	Hankins	Alex Okafor "U"	Wreh-Wilson
Chicago	Bostic	Manti Te'O	Alonso
New England	J. Collins	Kawann "Silent" Short	A. Brown
Washington	Amerson	David "Waldo" Amerson	Amerson
Oakland	Watson	"Time For" Montee Ball	K. Long
Green Bay	Lacy	Quinton "The General" Patton	Eifert
Seattle	Michael	Kiko Alonso	Short
Houston	Swearinger	Justin Hunter	Armstead
Denver	Ball	Kyle "Nasty" Long	Patton
New England	Dobson	Terron "The Terror" Armstead	T. Williams
Atlanta	Alford	Justin "Stinky" Pugh	Pugh
San Francisco	McDonald	Trevardo "Trev" Williams	Te'O
Baltimore	A. Brown	Travis "The Anchor" Frederick OR Sidney "Sam" Montgomery	Montgomery
END ROUND TWO	END ROUND TWO	END ROUND TWO	END ROUND TWO

2013 NFL Draft Team Needs: NFC

Following up on last post, here is a list of all 16 NFC teams, along with a few snippets about what they should be looking for in this upcoming April NFL draft.

UPDATED April 18, 2013 in ITALICS

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Call me crazy but if I'm Dallas I take the best running back on the board. DeMarco may have what it takes, but as of yet he hasn't carried the ball on the field enough to show it. That move, if successful, would also free up DeM as trade bait in 2014. Yes, this team has needs elsewhere, especially at DB and on the OL, but a playmaker in the backfield would elevate the Cowboys' attack up with the best in the league. They could simply outscore most opponents. I expect them to go DB-LB-OL with their first three picks, but they should go RB-OL-DB.
UPDATE: There's been plenty of talk about Dallas trading out of the #18 slot, I have them taking Datone Jones as the best player available. The option would be Jonathan Cooper. In round 2 or 3, they should look hard at RBs, like maybe LeVeon Bell.

Washington Redskins: A gamebreaking WR from the slot, like Tavon Austin, would benefit this team, as well as make Fred Davis expendable. More protection on the offensive line is a necessity, and when DeAngelo Hall is your primary pass defender you have, well, problems. The 'Skins should build around their formidable linebacker corps and use this draft to improve the necessities. I would recommend they go WR-DB-OL in this draft, they will probably go DB-OL-WR.
UPDATE: DBs and OLs should still be the areas of focus for the Skinz. They finally get to play in round 2, at which time a DB like David Amerson or DJ Hayden would be a good first pick. 

New York Giants: Giants seemed to fall apart last year, not just by electing to play one and a half wide receivers on offense, but also by quite the bit of inconsistency on defense. They would have been better off running with Reuben Randle from the beginning. Coach Coughlin's commitment to his veterans has this one down side. Now by trading Hixon, and the uncertainty on the Cruz holdout, the Giants almost have to take a WR early, again. This means holes at LB and in the secondary might not all get filled. I expect them to make a few free agent signings, and to draft RB-DL-DB, they should go LB-WR-DB.
UPDATE: Jarvis Jones is a great fit and could still be available for the Giants with the #19 pick. Then they could follow that up with Kawann Short in the second round.

Philadelphia Eagles: The entire core of this team is in flux, except at RB and perhaps at WR. If they do the smart thing and avoid drafting those positions, the Iggs can have an entirely different look under Chip Kelly in 2013. They need help at LB and in the secondary the most, and then there is that offensive line situation, which run blocks very well, but has a hard time protecting the passer. Undoubtedly, Kelly will want to make his presence felt on offense, and will do something there, too. They will draft OL-DL-WR but should probably be going OL-DB-LB.
UPDATE: Talk persists that Chip is not happy with the QBs he has and will draft one, perhaps with his first round pick. I say that would be nuts. Take Eric Fisher first, or whichever tackle is still on the board first, then take Nassib as a project. Right now I think they will wait a couple of rounds before taking a stab at a QB. 

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Falcons came close to the Super Bowl last year and on paper seem to have come out of free agency a bit weaker than before it. Bad move releasing Clabo, one of the league's better linemen, especially considering his manageable salary, as well as unwise dropping John Abraham, who could still be effective in a rotation; he WAS their pass rush in 2013, getting 10 sacks in limited play, while the rest of the team combined got 17... but they did sign Steven Jackson, which is a slight upgrade over the Michael Turner-Jacquizz Rodgers combo, but not much better. They will draft OL-DL-LB, they would be better off going DL-RB-LB.
UPDATE: Nearly the entire league has the Falcons grabbing a tackle with their first pick, and I originally had them tabbed for DJ Fluker. Fluker has since risen on the board considerably, and probably won't be available for Atlanta at #30. Jonathan Cooper may end up being their man, I have a strange feeling they will trade up. 

Carolina Panthers: Arguably, the two-headed beast (with an appendage) at RB is dragging this whole team down. Using RBs the way they have been has vastly reduced the value of both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, so much so that the Panthers might as well stay the course and draft for more pressing needs. Steve Smith has needed a complement since Muhsin Muhammad, and neither Brandon LaFell nor Dominick Hixon has the breakaway ability to exploit single-coverage matchups enough. They also need some pressure from the DL. If Beason comes back to his old self they should be OK at LB. I would also grab a DB. They will draft DL-OL-LB, they should draft DL-DL-WR, and grab the best coverage DB they can find on the open market (besides Nakamura).
UPDATE: Sheldon Richardson would be a solid selection with the 14th pick. He fits their scheme nicely and is basically a pop-and-play talent with very limited downside and risk. Remember, the Panthers have no second round pick.

Tampa Bay Bucs: Despite what some say, I like the way this team is going. Like the coaching, the team cohesion, and choice of talent under the new regime. Were I the GM, I wouldn't address the offense at all through the draft, except maybe some late stabs at QB and OL. Freeman seems to have improved a bit under Sullivan, a development which may also be due to Schiano's short leash and/or motivational skills. Still, Freeman will need to do better in clutch situations, and make better decisions with the ball, to realize his full potential. Look for them to draft TE-QB-DB, they should draft DL-LB-DB.
UPDATE: Talks for acquiring the services of Revis from the Jets have, as of this writing, broken down. Something still might get done, but as I have alluded to before, my suggestion would be for the Bucs to continue building the team their way and let someone else ransom the farm for Revis. Either way, they will be looking at DBs often and early, I still say they fool eveyone and take Ziggy Ansah, then follow that up with Jamar Taylor in Round 2.

New Orleans Saints: Payton's Place is back on the air which means more fast-paced, high-scoring offense. To keep it that way, expect them to send Colston a complement (and perhaps, a message) this year by spending a high choice on a WR. Yes, despite several defensive deficiencies and inadequate depth in key spots, this machine is built for speed. Other than that, expect them to wisely concentrate on upgrading the defense. Plus, don't underestimate what the cadence at  the line by Brees and the speed and variety of play calling does to cover up deficiencies on the offensive line. They'll go WR-DB-DL, they should go DL-OL-LB and hope somebody releases a starting-caliber DB. Can't fix it all in one year without it.
UPDATE: New Orleans has been pretty quiet in these days leading up to the draft. Dion Jordan should be their first pick at #15.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: This franchise will find it difficult to win much with Cutler as QB. The problem appears more locker-room than performance related, and I question sometimes the effort of his surrounding cast as much as I do Cutler's. My guess would be Cutler would have more success elsewhere. Assuming they roll with last year's starters on offense, and that the addition of Bennett at TE is more than a stop-gap measure, they will be able to use the draft to fulfill needs. I do like the signings of Anderson and DJ Williams to fill the holes at LB, and that move allows them to go for somebody big to help out Paea at the nose. On paper now they look better than last year already. They will draft RB-OL-LB, they would be better off going DL-OL-RB. You know who makes a lot of sense here? Geno Smith.
UPDATE: Almost sure Geno won't be around, but it would be interesting. Assuming the teams picking before the Bears address their most pressing needs, there is a very real possibility Chicago could luck into Chance Warmack, and that's my pick for them at #20.

Detroit Lions: Oh Detroit, where every step forward is one step back. Seemingly set at the skill slots, let's see which direction they go in the draft. The OL and DL are also already very good, if not great. The problem is primarily in the secondary and at LB, as neither could execute when required to finish ball games. Schwartz would be a better coordinator or sideline motivator than head coach, he is too excitable, too many ups and downs, and this is reflected by his players' performances on the field. They'll likely draft RB-DB-WR, the order should be DB-DB-DB. Yep.
UPDATE: Almost certainly either Dee Milliner or Xavier Rhodes will be the Lions' pick at #5. Then they could pick up Cyprien in the 2nd Round.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers have more or less been exposed as a two-trick pony. They throw the ball well, and rush the passer well with a certain three players. Stop the pass, play the pass, and when on offense, control those three men, and you can beat the Packers. It is imperative that this team draft or find its missing players soon, because the rest of the division is leveling the table. Top of that list is RB. I expect them to finally get it, kind of, and go RB-DB-DL, they should go RB-DL-DB. There also appears to be a problem with the coaching and/or conditioning of this team's defense, which has enough talent to be better than they are statistically. More beef or speed on the DL may be all that's missing.
UPDATE: Matt Elam makes sense for the Packers. I also like Hankins here, but DB is more of a priority for the Pack.

Minnesota Vikings: I like the style of this team, not the least because of the demeanor and sideline presence of Leslie Frazier. He reminds so much of Tom Landry I wonder what he would look like in a suit and wearing Tom's hat. His consistent patience, deference and allocation of responsibilities, and dedication to doing what his team does best paid off last year. Still, they have needs all over the field. I would also not count on Greg Jennings being the player someone of his new salary would be expected to be, but it is possible, especially if Frazier does as he has promised and moves Jennings around like he did Harvin. I would draft DL-OL-DB, the Vikings will probably go OL-DB-LB.
UPDATE: Vikings still wheeling and dealing and have decided to let the top-rated DB in the league, Antoine Winfield, go to Seattle. An already weak secondary just got weaker. Desmond Trufant and Robert Woods in the 1st Round, then Margus Hunt in the 2nd, and Minnesota should be A-OK. 

NFC West

St. Louis Rams: Jeff Fisher is a good coach that needs to make the personnel decisions in order to reach his coaching potential. He needs to have a majority of "his guys" in order to field his best team. When I think of Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler comes to mind, someone with all the tools and pedigree, who just can't seem to inspire those around him just a tad, or kick up his game when required. I would throw everyone for a loop and grab a QB early. Sure, this team has needs on the OL, even after signing Jake Long. They also should bring in a RB to at least push Daryl Richardson and Pead. I like the defense. Expect them to go RB-OL-DB, they should go QB-LB-DL and make that defense superb. Hopefully Jared Cook is the TE answer Lance Kendricks so far hasn't been.
UPDATE: With good QB play this team can make the playoffs in 2013 regardless of what it does in the draft. Since there is no QB better than Bradford in the immediate future for the Rams, they should draft Tavon Austin to help him out and play the Amendola role. Take a shot at Giovanni Bernard in the 2nd.

San Francisco 49ers: This team is strong, can go in virtually any direction, and is the most difficult team to figure out in this 2013 draft. I will hazard a guess that they go for a stand-up defensive end, or another rush-linebacker type first. They'll probably end up drafting DL-DB-OL, when they should draft RB-DB-OL. No, Frank Gore's successor is not yet on the roster.
UPDATE: Kevin Minter is my pick for them here. They also have the luxury of time to nurture the pedigree of Kyle Long if they grab him in Round 2. 

Arizona Cardinals: The desert birds look to rise like the fiery phoenix under new coach Arians. Expect a mix of what you saw last year in Indy and what he did in his last season with Pittsburgh. Having Mendenhall and Ryan Williams is a risky proposition, and despite his having other holes to fill, I anticipate Arians and his staff not being hesitant about taking a RB early. After that, they could use another "umph" factor on D. Finally, line, line, line, you can't do anything if you can't keep the defense off your QB. Even a tough blocking TE who can catch is a possibility. Their choices will probably run OL-DL-RB, would be better off in the long run going OL-OL-DL and use up some of their remaining picks on a RB and a QB.
UPDATE: After signing Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton I will say that the Cardinals stand pat at QB until the very late rounds. Lane Johnson should be their first selection, then Sylvester Williams in the 2nd.

Seattle Seahawks: This team has improved itself since the end of 2012. Its defense, especially, will be much better, and expect more consistency on offense if Russell Wilson continues to progress at the rate at which he so far has; it's arguable that he has more leadership qualities than any QB drafted in 2012, and of those, in my opinion, there are several good QBs who will be around for some time. Addressing most of their immediate needs through free agency and trades, expect Seattle to go for the best player available, with concentration on the OL. They will draft OL-DB-TE, they should draft OL-LB-TE.
UPDATE: The signing of Winfield will make it even more difficult for opponents to score through the air against Seattle. They have few needs except on the OL and perhaps at LB. I say they nab Tyler Eifert in the 2nd.

2013 NFL Draft Team Needs: AFC

These days, pro football talent advances so fast that those who evaluate talent apparently cannot keep up. Just like the many television, internet, and print "draft experts" who might hit on a big pick guess this time, but wind up missing on the next one (which conveniently never again gets mentioned), there are too many general managers, talent scouts, directors of personnel, and so on, who are also pretty hit and miss. Quite a large percentage, in fact, are more miss than hit, and who knows how many possible Kurt Warners or Alfred Morrises never even got an invite to an NFL camp, let alone drafted, because of bad evaluators. Who grades the graders?

There are really two ways of going about building a football team. One is by doing what everyone else does. Copy their organization, their system, their scheme like a handy template, then change and customize as needed. I call this The Parrot Approach. Chances of success using this method are, well, pretty much the same as everyone else who uses it. It is what you would call a safe approach, one many organizations adopt. Just look at the personnel on any team and see how even the job titles of its employees, from management to coaching, are pretty much the same.  I am not sure, but would not bet against the same foods being on the lunch menus, either.

This first way of building a team utilizes scouting as its primary method of identifying new talent. The quality of scouts is also very hit or miss, there being as many in their job because of connections in the game (or with ownership) as because of knowledge of football and/or knowing how to spot a good player. Simply stated, too many are just bad at their job, so bad, in fact, that franchises (and networks...) should start paying based on success rate. What's happened with Gabe Carimi? Kevin Kolb? Who bucked the trend and said "draft Russell Wilson"? All the teams which build using this method can, and often do, use the same pool of scouts, who often "borrow" from each other in forming their rankings. Then, in their turn, staff, commentators, and pundits then parrot these recommendations. Despite their own individual needs, you would be astonished to learn how similar the Draft Day Big Boards are for each team.

Understand the thinking here. If you choose a dud, you can say, well, everyone would have chosen that dud. If you take a chance on a risky player, who doesn't pan out, your only defense is that you guessed wrong. For job security, most especially GMs and player personnel people in charge usually choose the safe path.

Now consider for a moment the recent moves of the Miami Dolphins, presided over by a basically clueless adherent to this first method of building a football team. His first mistake is thinking he is now set with Tannehill at QB. A smart manager would have moved him this year for whatever he could get, and the same with Brian Hartline. Ireland has brought in Mike Wallace, which requires both 1) a lot of cash and 2) a QB able to get him the ball 40 yards downfield. I should add, his success also requires a coaching staff willing to throw it 40 yards down the field a few times per quarter. Wallace isn't a guy to run slants. Next, Ireland decimated the heart and soul of what's left of this defense by cutting Dansby and Burnett. Sure, he brought in two new and flashy guys with dreadlocks, but will they improve the defense? This is a defense, let's not forget, that very recently had two all-pro caliber d-backs in Sean Smith and Vontae Davis. Who will replace them? What about team chemistry? I could go on.

There is a better way to build a team, and this second way is the way used by champions. These people construct their football team the way they want regardless of public and popular opinion. They take chances and risks, and rely on different scouting criteria, often employing their own scouts, or even having the coaching staff involved fully in the scouting process. When everyone else is looking for fast cornerbacks, the trend-setters are looking for big, strong guys. When other teams are looking to implement a "read-option," trend setters are looking at ways to keep their QB cleaner in the pocket. Bill Belicheck drafts and wants football players, regardless of their measurables; Don Shula wanted smart football players; John Madden wanted hard-nosed players, etc. Certainly, all teams want players with all these characteristics. The point is, measurables do not always identify good players. Furthermore, while you are looking for what everyone else is looking for, as you ride that bandwagon (say, oh, the -ahem- "Wildcat'), you might miss something even more valuable.

Having said all this, let's get down to (top) brass tacks. Here is a list of all 16 AFC teams, along with a few snippets about what they should be looking for in this upcoming April NFL draft. Next post we'll do the NFC.

April 17 Updates in ITALICS

AFC East

Miami Dolphins: This team needs multiple DBs as a priority. It also needs a big tackle, will probably sign a DE through free agency. Are Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas the answer at RB? I expect them to go DB-WR-OL with their first three picks. They should go DB-DB-DB then look at QB and RB.
UPDATE: The majority of the talk has Miami taking a lineman first and then the best players available for need. They should just sign Clabo and concentrate on the defensive backfield. At latest word, they are also expressing interest in Brandon Albert from the Chiefs, to conceivably replace Jake Long. Expect them NOW to OL-DB-LB, they should rather go DB-DB-RB and grab Montee Ball like a bandit with their second pick in the 2nd round.

New England Patriots: The line should hold up another year or two, TE and QB is set, but this club needs defensive help, particularly at LB and in the secondary. Tough play up front covered up deficiencies on the Patriots' defensive depths, a weakness that became exposed late in the season and cost them a shot at the Super Bowl. They did play hard for coach 'check. I would recommend they go DL-DB-LB, they will probably go RB-WR-DB.
UPDATE: I can't help but thinking the Pats still need a gamebreaking vertical threat. Not sure whether they will select one early or rely on a later-round small-school prospect. I do think they would jump all over one of the top 3 WRs if one drops to them at #29. Their needs are now DB-LB-WR (really thought they should have resigned Lloyd), I say they get lucky and draft WR-DB-LB. They will also take a LB early if a good one is on the board.

Buffalo Bills: Bills now need to draft a QB after apparently thinking 2.2 seconds is enough time for a QB to throw the ball. Problems on the line, especially in pass-blocking situations, must be addressed, if Fitzpatrick's replacement - whoever that may be - is expected to have any chance at success. They also badly need a complement to Stevie Johnson at WR, and plenty of defense. Expect them to draft QB-OL-DE, they should go OL-OL-QB.
UPDATE: Holes all over the defense should be addressed. After signing (gasp) Kevin Kolb, they will wait until 2014 for a QB. Look for them to take the best linemen on both sides of the ball, defense first. Barkevious Mingo, Sharif Floyd, or Star Lotulelei will and probably should be their first pick. I would also not be surprised if they trade down and grab someone like Kenny Vaccaro, and build from the outside-in.

New York Jets: Let's buck the trend and insist that if the Jets offense had tailored its offense around the skills of Tebow, as is the fashion for QBs like RGIII, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, even Tannehill, Tebow would have won more games than Sanchez. Regardless, the Jets seemed poised to cut Tebow loose and roll with Sanchez and "some competition" in the form of David Garrard and a draft choice. They will draft DB-QB-RB but should probably be going OL-QB-DB.
UPDATE: This other New York team remains in the same funky state as the Bills, and in fact may be worse in 2014 than the Bills. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in Steve Johnson and CJ Spiller. The Jets have WHO to make plays? The Jets have a better run-blocking OL than the Bills, but not by much, and when Revis goes, that vaunted Jets secondary becomes mediocre, at best, not much better (consequently) than Buffalo. You would think a defensive-minded coach builds starting with defense, but I say this draft the Jets will wake up and realize they must be able to score points, too. Their needs are now QB-WR-RB and that is how they should draft, then start snatching up a slew of UFAs, undrafteds, and FAs and choose the best to stock the defense and OL. I say they should select Matt Barkley, or their favorite QB, with the #9 pick. That, or I say, improve elsewhere and roll fully with Tebow. There's not a whole lot to lose here. Actually, the BEST QB in this draft class is either Matt Barkley or Landry Jones.

AFC South

Houston Texans: If not for a Herculean effort by two players this Texans' defense would have been only mediocre. Strong DL play all year covered up for massive weaknesses in the secondary and a depleted linebacking core. They think they need a complement to Andre Johnson, and will draft WR-LB-DB, they would be better off going LB-DB-TE. Improve the defense even more first.
UPDATE: I see no major changes since the first writing. They will take the WR they like best at #27, probably Keenan Allen. Keshawn Martin can be their guy, though, and the Texans might want to wait until Round 2, or even 3, for WR help. Just saying.

Indianapolis Colts: Inspired play all year long, and a fine first NFL season by Andrew Luck, carried the Colts to the playoffs. Still, glaring holes on defense were apparent. D-line is a priority for this team, then more pass protection for Luck. They will draft DB-DL-RB, they should draft DL-OL-LB.
UPDATE: Average as it is, I think the Colts should avoid addressing the line with their first pick and jump on the best difference-making defender they can get. Jesse Williams should still be available, and would be a bargain at #24. 

Tennessee Titans: Titans like Locker, expect to see Fitzpatrick in the starting lineup often. Set good enough for this year at the skill positions, the Titans can concentrate on improving their up-and-down defense, and a swiss-cheese offensive line not much better at run than pass blocking. They also need a replacement at TE. Look for them to draft TE-LB-WR, they should draft OL-DL-DB.
UPDATE: I still expect this draft to be all about beef for the Titans. In general, there has been quite a bit of shifting in the defensive line/rush linebacker talent evaluation, during these days just prior to the draft. They are this year's hot commodity, and my bet is several teams just want one of them. Star Lotulelei could even still be around for Tennessee at #10, especially if the Jets take a QB. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Chad Henne will always get our endorsement over Blaine Gabbert, but expect some more competition to be brought in at QB. This team has many needs, and could stand to draft two LBs as just a start. Expect them to concentrate on upgrading the WR position, and a RB to push Jones-Drew. They'll go WR-LB-RB, they should go LB-OL-DL.
UPDATE: No longer think they will draft a WR first, nor at all. I think they WILL go QB-OL-DL. If this team does not draft a QB at #2, then they are content with Henne as backup and potential starter for 2013. If they do select Geno Smith as I expect, it is doubtful the Jags hang onto Gabbert at all.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown and Plaxico Burress are all that remain of their WR corps, with Wallace down in Miami and Emmanuel Sanders on the trading block. I expect them to target a speed WR to accompany Brown early on, and a LB to replace James Harrison's roster position. They will draft WR-LB-RB, they would be better off going RB-DB-LB.
UPDATE: RB-LB-DB is what they should do, especially now that Sanders has been re-signed. Still, the giddiness at a chance to snag arguably the best long threat WR in this draft will mean the Steelers take Cordarelle Patterson as long as he's on the board at #17. Sooner or later that OL will need to be tended to as well, though. I also assume Heath Miller will be back and ready for Week One.

Cleveland Browns: Quietly the Browns have built off last season's success on defense and strengthened that side of the ball through trades and free agency. A top corner to join Joe Haden would be an optimum defense pick, then concentration on the offensive line. They will draft QB-WR-OL, the order should be OL-DB-QB.
UPDATE: My opinion is no longer that they will take a QB early. In fact, I think this organization is making very good moves, and will do so in this draft, selecting Xavier Rhodes, or possibly even Milliner, with the 6th selection, then trading up into the second round. I do expect a QB at some point, but even if they just take the reigns off Weeden, the Browns could surprise a few teams in 2013.

Baltimore Ravens: For being Super Bowl champs, the Ravens have some glaring holes to fill. Jacoby Jones is kind of a watered-down (but hyped-up) version of the same type of player that Torrey Smith is. Boldin's clutch catches will be missed and he will need to be replaced. Ray Lewis' projected replacement Ellerbe has been traded to Miami, and so now the Ravens need a middle linebacker as well. Ed Reed is also now gone, to Houston, a development which also makes safety a Ravens priority. I expect them to go LB-DB-WR, they should go LB-DB-DL.
UPDATE: The Ravens will find life on defense a new experience without Lewis and Reed. Though the team feels it has the talent to fill the void, the leadership roles lost are not insignificant. I have them selecting Manti Te'O with the final pick in the first round, but I am also now starting to come around to the opinion that he just might not fit into Raven football. DJ Hayden might be their man. Dumervil was a good signing and helps ease the pain.

Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals could use a speed partner for Green-Ellis, and Bernard Scott is not the answer. This is an important draft for the Bengals; the right moves will send them back to the playoffs and maybe further, but the wrong ones will set this team back. To me, they need another impact rusher, and a shut-down cornerback. If I ran the team, I would draft DL-DB-OL, the Bengals will probably go RB-DL-WR.
UPDATE: After flirting around with FA James Harrison, so far nothing has come of the tryst. Linebackers that can contribute immediately can be had with later picks this year as well. Their first selection should be a RB with speed, but Eddie Lacey could make Green-Ellis future trade bait. I'd build on that up-and-coming defense and take an impact pass rusher first.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: Broncos will be in the market for a DE on draft day whether they sign Dumervil again or not. They can also use a replacement for the formidable (and cut) DJ Williams at LB, and Champ Bailey is starting to show his age. However, that Manning blind side will be shored up by Elway.  Expect them to go OL-DL-DB, they should go LB-DB-OL, and think about a RB. If they draft a WR, somebody should be fired.
UPDATE: Dumervil's gone, and I like the Broncs to address that need right away, taking the most underrated DL man - and I mean MAN - in this whole draft, Big Hank Hankins. If they can keep him hungry and motivated, Hankins has the tools and demeanor to make Denver forget about Elvis.

San Diego Chargers: This team is in limbo, and will have a new look in 2013. They need help everywhere, except perhaps at QB, and even that is iffy. Rivers will need time and linemen. If they re-sign Alexander they will be set at the offensive skill positions. I expect the new regime to make some noise and go after skill anyway, drafting WR-RB-QB, when they should draft OL-DL-DB if they want to save their season.
UPDATE: Rumors have circulated, despite myself and many others feeling the Chargers would be best served drafting Chance "Wehrmacht" Warmack at #11 (shoring up at least some of the center of that line, and so increasing the chances Rivers survives 3 games in 2013), that San Diego will NOT take a guard with their first pick. Part of this is the relative abundance of "playable" guards in the NFL, but I stand by my suggestion for this team, as Warmack could play anywhere on the line and brings a nastiness to the inside run game that San Diego has lacked for over a decade. In the wake of these rumblings, I now think they will target a pass rusher first. Ziggy Ansah, Sharif Floyd, if one of them falls, could be Charger.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have pretty much filled all the holes made by their offseason losses through free agency, and enter this draft with the same needs with which they ended the season. They will feel desperate at QB and target one too soon, and go QB-WR-OL. The better course would be to concentrate on the interior lines on both sides of the ball, and draft OL-DL-DB.
UPDATE: The Matt Flynn signing makes me think they will give him an opportunity in 2013 to be the man, and just draft a QB late in case Flynn flops. I now think they will draft DL-OL-DB and take a 4th round flier on a QB, or wait until 2014 to get one. I have them grabbing Sharif Floyd with the #3 pick.

Kansas City Chiefs: This team has improved itself since the end of 2012. Its defense, especially, will be much better, and expect more consistency on offense under Andy Reid; it's arguable that he has more talent on this Chiefs team than he had with the Eagles. In the draft, look for them to target a big WR to help out Bowe, unless they trade for one. They will draft WR-OL-QB, they should draft OL-DL-LB.
UPDATE: We know KC could run the ball, but now it seems a foregone conclusion that they will trade Brandon Albert, possibly to Miami for the Fins' second 2nd-round selection. Albert was a big part of that Jamaal Charles success, which means the Chiefs will now almost certainly have to take Luke Joeckel with the first pick. Trading DOWN is a very real possibility, especially if KC rates the best tackle propects fairly evenly.