There are really two ways of going about building a football team. One is by doing what everyone else does. Copy their organization, their system, their scheme like a handy template, then change and customize as needed. I call this The Parrot Approach. Chances of success using this method are, well, pretty much the same as everyone else who uses it. It is what you would call a safe approach, one many organizations adopt. Just look at the personnel on any team and see how even the job titles of its employees, from management to coaching, are pretty much the same. I am not sure, but would not bet against the same foods being on the lunch menus, either.
This first way of building a team utilizes scouting as its primary method of identifying new talent. The quality of scouts is also very hit or miss, there being as many in their job because of connections in the game (or with ownership) as because of knowledge of football and/or knowing how to spot a good player. Simply stated, too many are just bad at their job, so bad, in fact, that franchises (and networks...) should start paying based on success rate. What's happened with Gabe Carimi? Kevin Kolb? Who bucked the trend and said "draft Russell Wilson"? All the teams which build using this method can, and often do, use the same pool of scouts, who often "borrow" from each other in forming their rankings. Then, in their turn, staff, commentators, and pundits then parrot these recommendations. Despite their own individual needs, you would be astonished to learn how similar the Draft Day Big Boards are for each team.
Understand the thinking here. If you choose a dud, you can say, well, everyone would have chosen that dud. If you take a chance on a risky player, who doesn't pan out, your only defense is that you guessed wrong. For job security, most especially GMs and player personnel people in charge usually choose the safe path.
Now consider for a moment the recent moves of the Miami Dolphins, presided over by a basically clueless adherent to this first method of building a football team. His first mistake is thinking he is now set with Tannehill at QB. A smart manager would have moved him this year for whatever he could get, and the same with Brian Hartline. Ireland has brought in Mike Wallace, which requires both 1) a lot of cash and 2) a QB able to get him the ball 40 yards downfield. I should add, his success also requires a coaching staff willing to throw it 40 yards down the field a few times per quarter. Wallace isn't a guy to run slants. Next, Ireland decimated the heart and soul of what's left of this defense by cutting Dansby and Burnett. Sure, he brought in two new and flashy guys with dreadlocks, but will they improve the defense? This is a defense, let's not forget, that very recently had two all-pro caliber d-backs in Sean Smith and Vontae Davis. Who will replace them? What about team chemistry? I could go on.
There is a better way to build a team, and this second way is the way used by champions. These people construct their football team the way they want regardless of public and popular opinion. They take chances and risks, and rely on different scouting criteria, often employing their own scouts, or even having the coaching staff involved fully in the scouting process. When everyone else is looking for fast cornerbacks, the trend-setters are looking for big, strong guys. When other teams are looking to implement a "read-option," trend setters are looking at ways to keep their QB cleaner in the pocket. Bill Belicheck drafts and wants football players, regardless of their measurables; Don Shula wanted smart football players; John Madden wanted hard-nosed players, etc. Certainly, all teams want players with all these characteristics. The point is, measurables do not always identify good players. Furthermore, while you are looking for what everyone else is looking for, as you ride that bandwagon (say, oh, the -ahem- "Wildcat'), you might miss something even more valuable.
Having said all this, let's get down to (top) brass tacks. Here is a list of all 16 AFC teams, along with a few snippets about what they should be looking for in this upcoming April NFL draft. Next post we'll do the NFC.
April 17 Updates in ITALICS
AFC East
Miami Dolphins: This team needs multiple DBs as a priority. It also needs a big tackle, will probably sign a DE through free agency. Are Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas the answer at RB? I expect them to go DB-WR-OL with their first three picks. They should go DB-DB-DB then look at QB and RB.UPDATE: The majority of the talk has Miami taking a lineman first and then the best players available for need. They should just sign Clabo and concentrate on the defensive backfield. At latest word, they are also expressing interest in Brandon Albert from the Chiefs, to conceivably replace Jake Long. Expect them NOW to OL-DB-LB, they should rather go DB-DB-RB and grab Montee Ball like a bandit with their second pick in the 2nd round.
New England Patriots: The line should hold up another year or two, TE and QB is set, but this club needs defensive help, particularly at LB and in the secondary. Tough play up front covered up deficiencies on the Patriots' defensive depths, a weakness that became exposed late in the season and cost them a shot at the Super Bowl. They did play hard for coach 'check. I would recommend they go DL-DB-LB, they will probably go RB-WR-DB.
UPDATE: I can't help but thinking the Pats still need a gamebreaking vertical threat. Not sure whether they will select one early or rely on a later-round small-school prospect. I do think they would jump all over one of the top 3 WRs if one drops to them at #29. Their needs are now DB-LB-WR (really thought they should have resigned Lloyd), I say they get lucky and draft WR-DB-LB. They will also take a LB early if a good one is on the board.
Buffalo Bills: Bills now need to draft a QB after apparently thinking 2.2 seconds is enough time for a QB to throw the ball. Problems on the line, especially in pass-blocking situations, must be addressed, if Fitzpatrick's replacement - whoever that may be - is expected to have any chance at success. They also badly need a complement to Stevie Johnson at WR, and plenty of defense. Expect them to draft QB-OL-DE, they should go OL-OL-QB.
UPDATE: Holes all over the defense should be addressed. After signing (gasp) Kevin Kolb, they will wait until 2014 for a QB. Look for them to take the best linemen on both sides of the ball, defense first. Barkevious Mingo, Sharif Floyd, or Star Lotulelei will and probably should be their first pick. I would also not be surprised if they trade down and grab someone like Kenny Vaccaro, and build from the outside-in.
New York Jets: Let's buck the trend and insist that if the Jets offense had tailored its offense around the skills of Tebow, as is the fashion for QBs like RGIII, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, even Tannehill, Tebow would have won more games than Sanchez. Regardless, the Jets seemed poised to cut Tebow loose and roll with Sanchez and "some competition" in the form of David Garrard and a draft choice. They will draft DB-QB-RB but should probably be going OL-QB-DB.
UPDATE: This other New York team remains in the same funky state as the Bills, and in fact may be worse in 2014 than the Bills. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in Steve Johnson and CJ Spiller. The Jets have WHO to make plays? The Jets have a better run-blocking OL than the Bills, but not by much, and when Revis goes, that vaunted Jets secondary becomes mediocre, at best, not much better (consequently) than Buffalo. You would think a defensive-minded coach builds starting with defense, but I say this draft the Jets will wake up and realize they must be able to score points, too. Their needs are now QB-WR-RB and that is how they should draft, then start snatching up a slew of UFAs, undrafteds, and FAs and choose the best to stock the defense and OL. I say they should select Matt Barkley, or their favorite QB, with the #9 pick. That, or I say, improve elsewhere and roll fully with Tebow. There's not a whole lot to lose here. Actually, the BEST QB in this draft class is either Matt Barkley or Landry Jones.
AFC South
Houston Texans: If not for a Herculean effort by two players this Texans' defense would have been only mediocre. Strong DL play all year covered up for massive weaknesses in the secondary and a depleted linebacking core. They think they need a complement to Andre Johnson, and will draft WR-LB-DB, they would be better off going LB-DB-TE. Improve the defense even more first.UPDATE: I see no major changes since the first writing. They will take the WR they like best at #27, probably Keenan Allen. Keshawn Martin can be their guy, though, and the Texans might want to wait until Round 2, or even 3, for WR help. Just saying.
Indianapolis Colts: Inspired play all year long, and a fine first NFL season by Andrew Luck, carried the Colts to the playoffs. Still, glaring holes on defense were apparent. D-line is a priority for this team, then more pass protection for Luck. They will draft DB-DL-RB, they should draft DL-OL-LB.
UPDATE: Average as it is, I think the Colts should avoid addressing the line with their first pick and jump on the best difference-making defender they can get. Jesse Williams should still be available, and would be a bargain at #24.
Tennessee Titans: Titans like Locker, expect to see Fitzpatrick in the starting lineup often. Set good enough for this year at the skill positions, the Titans can concentrate on improving their up-and-down defense, and a swiss-cheese offensive line not much better at run than pass blocking. They also need a replacement at TE. Look for them to draft TE-LB-WR, they should draft OL-DL-DB.
UPDATE: I still expect this draft to be all about beef for the Titans. In general, there has been quite a bit of shifting in the defensive line/rush linebacker talent evaluation, during these days just prior to the draft. They are this year's hot commodity, and my bet is several teams just want one of them. Star Lotulelei could even still be around for Tennessee at #10, especially if the Jets take a QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Chad Henne will always get our endorsement over Blaine Gabbert, but expect some more competition to be brought in at QB. This team has many needs, and could stand to draft two LBs as just a start. Expect them to concentrate on upgrading the WR position, and a RB to push Jones-Drew. They'll go WR-LB-RB, they should go LB-OL-DL.
UPDATE: No longer think they will draft a WR first, nor at all. I think they WILL go QB-OL-DL. If this team does not draft a QB at #2, then they are content with Henne as backup and potential starter for 2013. If they do select Geno Smith as I expect, it is doubtful the Jags hang onto Gabbert at all.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown and Plaxico Burress are all that remain of their WR corps, with Wallace down in Miami and Emmanuel Sanders on the trading block. I expect them to target a speed WR to accompany Brown early on, and a LB to replace James Harrison's roster position. They will draft WR-LB-RB, they would be better off going RB-DB-LB.UPDATE: RB-LB-DB is what they should do, especially now that Sanders has been re-signed. Still, the giddiness at a chance to snag arguably the best long threat WR in this draft will mean the Steelers take Cordarelle Patterson as long as he's on the board at #17. Sooner or later that OL will need to be tended to as well, though. I also assume Heath Miller will be back and ready for Week One.
Cleveland Browns: Quietly the Browns have built off last season's success on defense and strengthened that side of the ball through trades and free agency. A top corner to join Joe Haden would be an optimum defense pick, then concentration on the offensive line. They will draft QB-WR-OL, the order should be OL-DB-QB.
UPDATE: My opinion is no longer that they will take a QB early. In fact, I think this organization is making very good moves, and will do so in this draft, selecting Xavier Rhodes, or possibly even Milliner, with the 6th selection, then trading up into the second round. I do expect a QB at some point, but even if they just take the reigns off Weeden, the Browns could surprise a few teams in 2013.
Baltimore Ravens: For being Super Bowl champs, the Ravens have some glaring holes to fill. Jacoby Jones is kind of a watered-down (but hyped-up) version of the same type of player that Torrey Smith is. Boldin's clutch catches will be missed and he will need to be replaced. Ray Lewis' projected replacement Ellerbe has been traded to Miami, and so now the Ravens need a middle linebacker as well. Ed Reed is also now gone, to Houston, a development which also makes safety a Ravens priority. I expect them to go LB-DB-WR, they should go LB-DB-DL.
UPDATE: The Ravens will find life on defense a new experience without Lewis and Reed. Though the team feels it has the talent to fill the void, the leadership roles lost are not insignificant. I have them selecting Manti Te'O with the final pick in the first round, but I am also now starting to come around to the opinion that he just might not fit into Raven football. DJ Hayden might be their man. Dumervil was a good signing and helps ease the pain.
Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals could use a speed partner for Green-Ellis, and Bernard Scott is not the answer. This is an important draft for the Bengals; the right moves will send them back to the playoffs and maybe further, but the wrong ones will set this team back. To me, they need another impact rusher, and a shut-down cornerback. If I ran the team, I would draft DL-DB-OL, the Bengals will probably go RB-DL-WR.
UPDATE: After flirting around with FA James Harrison, so far nothing has come of the tryst. Linebackers that can contribute immediately can be had with later picks this year as well. Their first selection should be a RB with speed, but Eddie Lacey could make Green-Ellis future trade bait. I'd build on that up-and-coming defense and take an impact pass rusher first.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Broncos will be in the market for a DE on draft day whether they sign Dumervil again or not. They can also use a replacement for the formidable (and cut) DJ Williams at LB, and Champ Bailey is starting to show his age. However, that Manning blind side will be shored up by Elway. Expect them to go OL-DL-DB, they should go LB-DB-OL, and think about a RB. If they draft a WR, somebody should be fired.UPDATE: Dumervil's gone, and I like the Broncs to address that need right away, taking the most underrated DL man - and I mean MAN - in this whole draft, Big Hank Hankins. If they can keep him hungry and motivated, Hankins has the tools and demeanor to make Denver forget about Elvis.
San Diego Chargers: This team is in limbo, and will have a new look in 2013. They need help everywhere, except perhaps at QB, and even that is iffy. Rivers will need time and linemen. If they re-sign Alexander they will be set at the offensive skill positions. I expect the new regime to make some noise and go after skill anyway, drafting WR-RB-QB, when they should draft OL-DL-DB if they want to save their season.
UPDATE: Rumors have circulated, despite myself and many others feeling the Chargers would be best served drafting Chance "Wehrmacht" Warmack at #11 (shoring up at least some of the center of that line, and so increasing the chances Rivers survives 3 games in 2013), that San Diego will NOT take a guard with their first pick. Part of this is the relative abundance of "playable" guards in the NFL, but I stand by my suggestion for this team, as Warmack could play anywhere on the line and brings a nastiness to the inside run game that San Diego has lacked for over a decade. In the wake of these rumblings, I now think they will target a pass rusher first. Ziggy Ansah, Sharif Floyd, if one of them falls, could be Charger.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have pretty much filled all the holes made by their offseason losses through free agency, and enter this draft with the same needs with which they ended the season. They will feel desperate at QB and target one too soon, and go QB-WR-OL. The better course would be to concentrate on the interior lines on both sides of the ball, and draft OL-DL-DB.
UPDATE: The Matt Flynn signing makes me think they will give him an opportunity in 2013 to be the man, and just draft a QB late in case Flynn flops. I now think they will draft DL-OL-DB and take a 4th round flier on a QB, or wait until 2014 to get one. I have them grabbing Sharif Floyd with the #3 pick.
Kansas City Chiefs: This team has improved itself since the end of 2012. Its defense, especially, will be much better, and expect more consistency on offense under Andy Reid; it's arguable that he has more talent on this Chiefs team than he had with the Eagles. In the draft, look for them to target a big WR to help out Bowe, unless they trade for one. They will draft WR-OL-QB, they should draft OL-DL-LB.
UPDATE: We know KC could run the ball, but now it seems a foregone conclusion that they will trade Brandon Albert, possibly to Miami for the Fins' second 2nd-round selection. Albert was a big part of that Jamaal Charles success, which means the Chiefs will now almost certainly have to take Luke Joeckel with the first pick. Trading DOWN is a very real possibility, especially if KC rates the best tackle propects fairly evenly.
