NFL SUPER BOWL PREVIEW And NFL CHAMPIONSHIPS RECAP

Well once again, to my chagrin, I hit the 50/50 mark for guessing outcomes, this time with a split decision on my NFC and AFC Championship Games predictions. Looks like it's off to work again, as at this rate I'll never make a living gambling. Nevertheless, I trod on, this time to impress you yet again with a very real 50% chance of victory. Remember to cut me in on your winnings...

Before every Super Bowl we are asked the question whether the teams playing the games are the ones which "should" be there. For the next week and a half you're going to hear lots of times about teams "getting hot at the right time" and "catching breaks" or being "the healthiest they've been all season." What holds more true still is that football is a game of inches, that is the smallest accounted-for distance on a 100 yard football field. Between getting first downs and not, or getting in the end zone or not, or as we have seen many times this season, making the field goal or not (aka Mason "Bing" Crosby, or David "Ding" Akers") is a matter of inches, sometimes even an inch or less. A missed third-and-1, even by one inch, doesn't look like it can make much difference, but in the end it is the accumulation of these misses that cost a team the game. This is why what seems like parity is really a result of the changing nature of the game. Who will win any game now is only determined maybe 50% by the actual performances of the players on the field. The rest results from coaching decisions, personnel packages, lineup configurations, game plans, and other things players do not control. The game is even time-controlled by more than the clock, as time outs are adjusted in length, and official time outs called, to account for broadcasting requirements.

What can a fantasy football player glean from all this? Well, keep in mind that, probably for the worse but for better or worse, we are in the Age Of Specialization. Whereas in the past players put it all out on the field every play, some starters not even getting warmed up until the 2nd quarter and playing until they were too gassed to play any more, at which point the backups came in, today things are very different. Rotation of players to keep them "fresh" is becoming as commonplace as formations which change nearly every play, perhaps - as I have said before - giving more away about the play they plan to run instead of disguising it. The rotation of players can have the same effect. I can tell you this, nether I nor anyone I know who has played the game, one of these men having played on the pro level and several into college, would ever want to come out of a football game. Adrenaline doesn't come on and off like that, you can't get "into" the game like that. But it is a future we must anticipate, as sure to become more commonplace as the twelve men that now do the job of one head coach. We must change our strategy to reflect this state of affairs.

How will I personally do it? Well, until it becomes an every down thing for every skill position player, a fantasy player's first priority would seem to be finding out which of these NFL players are going to be on the field the most. Sure, "playing time" has always been a factor when drafting fantasy teams, and a big one at that. But from team to team now, during the transition to full-blown timeshares at every ball-carrying spot except QB, there will be dramatic differences in how teams will use their personnel. For every Calvin Johnson taking 90% of the snaps there will be several Josh Gordons seeing 50% of them. Determining who will be Calvins and who Joshes will be the fantasy player's top priority.

On the other hand, GIVEN that most NFL players utilized by fantasy gamers will be part-timers anyway, one cannot neglect the need to identify the most skilled players, that is, those who will make for the most difference when they are on the field. Discerning between, say, Donnie Avery and TY Hilton for 2013, may require one forget at this point the "playing time" effect and instead go for the "big play" possibility.

All in all, the luck factor becomes more and more real as fantasy rolls on. Given all the variables, soon it will become in fantasy as office pools have become, something anyone can play, using defaults or computer settings and/or recommendations, and still stand a chance to win. Sure, us students of the game might have a little advantage, but just reflect on your own past season's successes and failures, and look at the rosters of your teams. My guess is that, more often than not, it was NOT your best rosters that won you your championships, and that some of your best-drafted teams won diddly.

So maybe it's not all that bad. Considering the number of teams I've played, and the number of Championships I've brought home, maybe I'd be the kind to benefit from a little more emphasis on luck...and maybe you would be too.

THE SUPER BOWL

All this to give you my prediction for the Super Bowl. I said last week that whoever won the NFC Championship game would have a hard time beating the winner of the AFC game, and I am going to stay with that prediction. Baltimore will win for Ray Lewis, and though I am not a big fan of his character, and I have a lot of questions about how genuine some of the things he says and does are, he is a natural born motivator and he knows how to play the game of football. The 49ers came up big last week with their backs to the wall, but they didn't impress me much. The man here, though, is still Frank Gore, who commands a LOT of defensive attention when he is on the field, and he still plays like a kid. Where all the talk is about "win one for Frank" I have no idea, but I would not be surprised if San Francisco lost this game and Gore still got the MVP, crazy as that sounds. If Baltimore's defense forgets about Frank Gore in their scurry to prepare for Kaepernick, that would be a big mistake. Regardless, I say BALTIMORE 31 San Francisco 28.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round RECAP And CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW

Well the NFL Divisional playoffs didn't turn out quite as yours truly expected, as you can see by reading the predictions of the previous few posts, but I think enough points were nailed square on the head to merit another guess at the upcoming NFL Conference Championship games this Sunday. To recap, I incorrectly predicted Seattle to beat Atlanta and Denver to beat Baltimore. I guessed right choosing San Francisco over Green Bay and New England over Houston. In my defense of this sheepish mediocrity - really I think it is an affliction - Seattle had what it took to beat Atlanta and came within seconds of doing so. By the way, if you look at the tape of that game you will see some funny use of the clock by whoever was running it down in Hotlanta. For example, at least 3 seconds elapsed before Atlanta's final kickoff return(er) began running with the ball out of his end zone, and the start of the game clock. On one of Ryan's sideline passes on that final drive, for another example, the receiver was clearly stopped in bounds yet the referee stopped the clock as if the receiver (I think it was Jones) went out of bounds. Anyway, I'm just saying, this strategy almost backfired, as those extra 8 seconds or even more at the end of the game were almost enough to let Seattle have yet one more chance. Yet one more reason homefield is an advantage?

As for Baltimore beating Peyton and the Broncos, I DID say not to count out this resurgent Ravens defense, which did enough to win, and I emphasized the influence of Ray Lewis - who had 17 tackles - as well as mentioned Manning's terrible history against the Ravens. Also a good prediction on the Ravens' special teams production. But, as if called out by my preview of him for that game, Joe Flacco put in an amazing performance, yes it was one of those days I talked about, that when he is on he is really on. I guess I gave too much credit to Denver's defense, which I was sure could stifle what has most of the season been a predictable offense. Perhaps getting rid of their coordinator did some good. That and the motivational skills of Ray Lewis. This game was no surprise to me, I knew Baltimore could win, I just would never have imagined they could win a shootout... in Denver.

So close but yet so far. Let's try again, for Sunday:

I. AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 6:30 PM ET, CBS
These two are somewhat strangers to each other, and this week will mark only the third time the two have met in the postseason since 1996, always at New England. The Ravens handed the Patriots a last-seconds loss back in September in Baltimore, but only once before has Baltimore ever beaten New England, and that was in the 2009 playoffs at Gillette Stadium.

New England plays well at home, but Baltimore fields the type of team to handle both the cold and the crowds in frigid Foxboro. On offense the Ravens should be able to move the ball on New England as least as much as Houston did last weekend, and Baltimore's defense is back in the Big Play department but still giving up a lot of points.

I have two forces pulling on me in my attempt to forecast this game. History is on the side of New England, as is the home field advantage and Bill Belichick. I'd take Brady over Flacco at QB, Rice over Ridley at RB but just barely, call the WRs even, and normally give a big TE nod to the Pats, but that gap, with the news that Gronkowski will be out the rest of the season, closes a bit when it's just Hernandez against Pitta and Dickson. I expect to see more Woodhead than Vereen in this one, and maybe a 12 catch day for Welker running right at Ray Lewis' spot. But I also have that "looks like one for Ray Lewis" feel about it all now, and that complicates matters considerably. It is arguable that no team currently in the playoffs has the entire combination of offense, defense, and special teams necessary on paper to win it all EXCEPT the Ravens. They have the most experience together as a total team, as I think the Patriots' defense is work in progress with almost rotating doors at big positions, and that the 49ers are still adjusting to their new toy on offense. The Falcons defense, to me, while it has demonstrated talent at times (as I mentioned last week, you see what happened when John Abraham had to leave the last game) hasn't yet shown championship caliber cohesion. I would not want them defending my end zone with an opponent needing a quick six.

What to do? Predicted score: RAVENS 34 Patriots 31. And while everyone's going to be talking Ray Lewis, and perhaps rightfully so, I'm only gonna say one thing in support of my prediction: Ed Reed.

II. NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 3:00 PM ET, FOX
Another good game, this one for all the marbles in the NFC. The biggest question here is which Colin Kaepernick will we see? The one from last weekend, when he looked like the second coming of Red Grange, or the one of several weeks ago, when he displayed all the passing accuracy of a drunken Alex Smith? As I said last week in the keys to a 49ers win, Colin had to use his legs, and boy did he, he got more than the first downs I forecasted. And what about the resurgence of Michael Crabtree. Has he finally figured it out? I also said last week that if the Falcons could beat Seattle they would get close to making me a believer, and they have accomplished that. But not with any kind of flair. They won the game, but have erased few doubts about their ability to win The Big One. Perhaps it is best for them this way, maybe the teams playing against Atlanta feel no need to "rise up" against them, which would be a big mistake right now. Atlanta can win it all easily, but can they avoid the mental, coaching, penalty, defensive, and game plan mistakes that almost cost them their game last week?

If you will recall, Seattle flambayed the 49ers in San Francisco's final regular season road game. Yes Seattle's D shut down the 49ers offense, but Kaepernick wasn't all that impressive when he had to put the ball in the air, and like Matt Ryan last week, was seriously outplayed by Russell Wilson in that one. But then again, this is an Atlanta team that got pretty beaten by the Bucs, at home, not a few weeks ago.

When it comes down to it, I don't think either of these teams will be able to beat the winner of the AFC title game, but stranger things have happened. In this one, I don't think Kaepernick can do it alone, but Frank Gore will test again that Falcons defense that did a number on Lynch last week. QBs EVEN for this one, WR edge to Falcons, RB edge to Niners, TE edge to Falcons, defense edge to Niners, homefield to Falcons, kicker to Falcons....wow, looks like (Predicted Score...) ATLANTA 24 San Francisco 20.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Seattle At Atlanta

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: SEATTLE AT ATLANTA

I. Seattle: If you were to pick a hot team right now, heading into the divisional round of playoff games, that team would be Seattle.  Every season it is not usually the best team all season that wins the Super Bowl but the team that is the playing best at this time of year. Not predicted to do a whole lot before the season began, these Seahawks have surprised everyone and gone so far as to have already won a playoff game. Much of this turnaround has to do with perhaps the most unexpected surprise of the 2012 draft Russell Wilson, and a defense packed with studs in the secondary. As of right now it seems only inexperience can stop this team, that and a shown difficulty playing on the road.

QB: I have been high on Russell Wilson since watching him play his first exhibition game. Not blessed with the strongest arm or extraordinary stature to see over the line, Wilson gets by on guts, guile, quick feet and mind, and a strong desire to succeed. He is a born leader on the field and the game has not proven too fast for him as it has some more famous past rookie QBs. He has shown again the mistakes too many in NFL personnel departments make when evaluating players, that main mistake being relying too much on measurables and stature. This kid can play, and arguably has turned a mediocre team into a very good one. I am rooting for this cat for many reasons, he has a long bright future in the NFL. His being named the starting QB from jump street will go down as one of Pete Carroll's best moves as a coach, and he's made a few of them during his tenure in Seattle. He is a player's coach who knows talent when he sees it, and in Wilson he has found a gem for now and the future. Wilson provides more than enough at the position for the Seahawks to win at Atlanta this week. Expecting even more improvement next season, for fantasy purposes I have him ranked at QB #7 for 2013.

RB: Beast Mode a.k.a. Marshawn Lynch had an even better year than was expected of him, mostly due to his keeping his injuries, especially his chronic back problems, under control this season. He is a nasty running back, running hard and strong and hardly ever going down on the first hit or by arm tackles. Now that his off-field problems are behind him, apparently, his durability is the only issue which remains and which keeps him from being mentioned as one of the top backs in the league. But right now he is that, he provides a horse the Seahawks can ride this Sunday and on into the future. Backup Robert Turbin has also impressed in relief of Lynch this season, and has a future in the league. Fantasy-wise for 2013, because of his heavy workload I have Lynch ranked as my #2 RB for 2013, behind only Adrian Peterson and, yes, ahead of Arian Foster just barely. Barring injury I don't see this changing much during the offseason, but just in case I have also ranked Turbin, whose fringe value right now could elevate to a big payoff should anything happen to Lynch.

WR: Considering his WR talent what Wilson has done is even more impressive. It's not that Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin are bad receivers. In fact I think all three of them are underrated by pro scouts and in fantasy circles. It's just that all of them are fairly similar types, limited route-runners that cannot really stretch the field. While Seattle has used Tate and Rice in this role with limited success, they really don't have that big top-end burner, for example their opponent this week, Atlanta has two of them. In a way this plays to the strengths of Wilson, and perhaps the long bombs were missing rather because of  fears about Wilson's arm strength that this crew's ability to get open deep. Rice is a fluid runner with average hands who just gets dinged up too much, this history of bumps and bruises sidelining him has gone on since he Vikings days. When on and healthy he is a very good, if not quite top-tier receiver. He's not much of a blocker and will often give away decoy routes too early. Golden Tate has had his best season to date and has shown a knack for making big catches and difficult catches and probably - despite some conspicuous drops - has the best ball-concentration and hands of the three. He is also probably the quickest in space, and probably, in my opinion, should be playing the slot. Doug Baldwin, a decent receiver in his own right, had a rough year due to injuries and not being all that involved in the game plans. He probably should be moved outside. Bottom line is that there are several possibilities for Wilson on every pass play, none of them the focus enough for them to be keyed on by opponents. So while they aren't on par with the duo they'll face in Atlanta, at least not yet, they will present enough of a mystery to keep Atlanta's defense guessing on passing downs on Sunday. For fantasy football in 2013, I have Rice ranked the highest right now at WR #30, with Golden Tate at #46. I expect some movement during the offseason with these guys, probably both, should they retain their starting roles, will go up in value by kickoff 2013.

TE: This "you'll never know who he'll throw the ball to" mystery progresses on through the tight ends. Zach Miller has come on late and provides perhaps the primary TE target for Wilson, but it just might be Anthony McCoy who makes an unexpected grab. In fact the whole key to Seattle's passing game is the uncertainty about the targets. This could be due to Wilson's ability to go through his mental progressions, that is his mental quickness ability to find the open man and make the decision to let the ball go, or due to a good game plan that spreads the ball around. My guess is it's mostly Wilson with a little bit of gameplan, but then again teams don't usually give rookies many "just hit the open man" options, usually they call the play and have the QB throw to the spot or particular man. Regardless, this unit won't win the game for Seattle on Sunday, but it does provide a very real threat that can easily go under the radar. Especially if Wilson has to run and starts to improvise, both Miller and McCoy could prove to be valuable targets. For fantasy in 2013 this is a situation to monitor, because if one emerges and becomes involved in the offense, that one will have some value for fantasy football draft purposes. I have Miller only ranked at TE #29 right now, that will likely go up during the offseason, but if not, you are looking at value picks here.

Defense/Special Teams: Seattle's defense is now known as one of the best in the league right now and deservedly so. The numbers don't tell the whole story as this unit is blessed with a defensive backfield half of which most teams would pay through the nose for. These dudes are big, fast, hit hard, have attitudes, and haven't even been full strength most of the year. Pete Carroll can also pick DBs. Sherman, Chancellor, Browner, Earl Thomas - they carry this squad, as what's in front of them, with perhaps the exception of Red Bryant and maybe Bobby Wagner, are middling prospects adequate and nothing more. They are backed up by a brick wall, and that makes the linebackers and DL play even better. This week my guess is you will see just how good this defensive backfield of Seattle is: they will be tested, and come out with a passing grade. For fantasy purposes in 2013, they will be the third or fourth squad off the board, rightfully so.

K: Stephen Hauschka was the team's kicker most of the year and did a fine job, he is out for this week and so the the Seahawks have hired on Ryan Longwell for the playoff run. Longwell can still kick the ball, this offense does need a reliable kicker so this is a situation to watch on Sunday, one that could actually be a difference maker. Assuming Hauschka returns to his 2012 form, he should be taken highly in fantasy 2013 drafts.

II. Atlanta: The Rodney Dangerfields of this playoffs, if not the entire season, the Falcons' great regular season success has not translated into much respect in the minds of football commentators or oddsmakers, the latter calling them one of the longshots to win the Super Bowl. I've never been a big fan of Atlanta either, and I also don't quite believe they are as good as their record, but they have me right there on the edge of believerdom. They have what appears to be an accurate passer, a dynamic and perhaps the best pair of wideouts in the league, a thunder-and-lightning running game, and a slightly better than average defense. Their defensive line is very good when healthy but the rest of the defense is adequate at best. It seems that for all their improvement in the offensive side of the ball, the defensive side hasn't gained much. Anyway, to make me a believer they need to win this game on Sunday against the Seahawks. They do that and they just might be for real.

QB: Matt Ryan has it all as far as tools go. He is big, strong, stays healthy, smart, makes good reads, knows the offense, and wants to win. How badly can make all the difference. In many ways for me Ryan is like Matt Schaub in Houston, just going in the opposite direction. Ryan has the same type of questions surrounding him although he, like Schaub, apparently has all the necessary tools. Ryan's limitations, or apparent limitations, are also similar to Schaub's: you don't want to have to rely on his arm to get in the end zone with time running out (though he does seem to be improving in this area); he is basically immobile; and he can be rattled with even the slightest bit of pressure. Neither of them has yet to win "the Big Ones." But as long as Ryan continues to improve - and as long as he has those two big guns on his hips - he is a dangerous man, dangerous on Sunday and dangerous for fantasy purposes in 2013, where I have him ranked higher than ever right now at QB #8.

RB: Most people will talk about how Michael Turner's days are numbered, but his complement Jacquizz Rodgers is as likely to lose yardage as gain it and the rest of the depth behind him is a non-issue. Turner, if not as effective as he once was, still can move the chains, punch it in at the goal line, and keep you honest in the middle. He needs to get heated up, and it is no coincidence that as his carries have declined so has his performance. Turner is the Falcons' best option and will continue to be until this team brings in another bigtime RB. He might have some success on Sunday but don't bet on it as I don't think the mindset of this coaching staff has the patience to go without playing with their big toys. For fantasy purposes in 2013 you can take a chance on Rodgers if you want, myself I'd sooner grab Turner at a bargain price, around RB #20 range.

WR: Here are the big dogs and the primary reason these Falcons had the best record in the NFL in 2012. It is nearly impossible to single-cover either Roddy White or Julio Jones and teams' struggles in trying to do so has allowed Atlanta to have opportunities open up elsewhere, whether for running plays or Tony G. over the middle. They are big weapons these two, White with the better hands and quicks but Jones with the big-league upfield speed and body control. They will challenge and be challenged by the Seattle secondary often this weekend and the battle should be a joy to watch. Both should be taken very highly in 2013 fantasy drafts, I have Jones at WR #8 and White at WR #15, all in all, and again going against the grain, I'd sooner wait and nab White a bit later.

TE: While the Atlanta WRs will be busy battling that formidable Seattle secondary, I expect Tony Gonzalez to become a focal point in this game early and often. Of all the players on the Falcons he is the most responsible for this team's success, and I mean that sincerely. He plays each PLAY, not game, as if it is his last, and he is just as content out there blocking as receiving, where he still draws double coverage as a matter of routine. His hands have natural stickum on them, and he times his jumps to perfection. He is a prototype TE, always has been, and a sure first-ballot Hall Of Famer. He will need to come up huge this weekend for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks, and if he plays in 2013 he will be a top-3 TE in nearly all fantasy drafts.

Defense/Special Teams: The weakness for these Falcons is its defense and minor losses can hurt it considerably. If a questionable John Abraham is limited or does not play on Sunday, for example, this unit could be in more trouble than should reslt from a defense's loss of one starter. Teams have shown this season that you can move the ball on these Falcons, especially when they are starter down, and this might in fact be one reason why Atlanta is not garnering the respect it seems to deserve, that depth issue. Seattle doesn't have a potent offense but they do have an unpredictable and efficient one, and so Atlanta's D will need one of its best games of the year to make it to the NFL's Championship round. For fantasy football in 2013 this unit only has value because of Atlanta's offensive efficiency and nobody should reach to take them, if take them at all.

K: Matt Bryant has been one of the best kickers in the league the past couple of years, but looks like he's on a rapid decline. Battling injuries and missing kicks he would ordinarily make, it is all I can do to call his tryst against Ryan Longwell this week a push. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards until the preseason is about over.

PREDICTED SCORE: Homefield edge to Falcons, QBs even, RB edge to Seattle, defense edge to Seattle, TE edge to Falcons, WR edge to Falcons. looks like Falcons, but I say never mind that SEATTLE 31 Atlanta 30, in a barnburner. Expect some big INTs for Seattle secondary, and some characteristic Falcons coaching staff mistakes, to ice the unexpected win. Seattle loses in all the stats categories, but wins the game. You might be looking at a destiny forged - by the goddess Nike? - for these 2012 Seattle Seahawks.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Green Bay At San Francisco

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO

I. Green Bay: I think the big question about this Packers team is how good is it compared to the past couple of years. While the defense played better last week, and better at home overall, I think this unit has slipped a bit and is pretty ripe for the taking on the road. The good news for the defense is that their opponent this week, the 49ers, are in sort of a transition on offense, and so are not large point producers. The Packers offense can score with anyone and on anyone, I do have some questions about the center of that offensive line, but it still keeps Rodgers relatively clean, and in fact sometimes gives him all day to to throw the ball. Much of the reason for that is the plethora of wide receiving threats that have to be accounted for, reducing blitzes and the possibility of bringing extra men after Rodgers.

QB: Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, his stats and winning percentage are undeniable. He is not afraid to wing it and can handle a two-minute drill as well as anyone. He shows good pocket presence, a strong desire to win, and possesses extreme confidence on the field. He has free reign to audible, and passes near the goal line. He stays healthy and has many receiving options to work with, and is always for fantasy purposes the first or second QB taken, and that should remain the same in 2013. As for this season, he started off slowly, has had to live life without Greg Jennings all regular season, and Jordy Nelson for significant portions of it, but still he has managed to steer this team into the playoffs, and keep himself at the top of the statistical categories. Despite all that, I think his numbers are a bit inflated because of those short goal line TDs and Packers' penchant for the pass, especially in the red zone. In saying he can score on anyone, this week he'll have one of his more difficult tests of that theory.

RB: Well what can you say about DuJuan Harris, Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and John Kuhn, other than that if you get to start an entire NFL team's backfield in your fantasy league they're not bad? It appears right now that the team is going to ride Harris, my guess is he'll start this weekend, and possibly in 2013. Grant is purely a stop-gap measure, although don't be surprised if Green is traded or released this offseason, especially if Green Bay goes for a RB via the draft or trade this spring. Kuhn is the designated short-yardage guy and fan favorite, to me he's a luxury to have around for the Packers, a token to use here and there, for show even. The running game on paper looks like a liability going into the Bay, perhaps the Packers might do well to surprise everyone and run it up the guts - or try to - against the Niners on Saturday, because my guess here is the 49ers are preparing for a Rodgers bombardment. Actually, so am I. Fantasy-wise, only Harris appears to be draftable in 2013 right now, but this is certainly a situation to monitor in the coming months, as whoever does emerge as the primary ball carrier will have decent value.

WR: It doesn't get much better at wideout than what the Packers have in stock right now. In fact, one could say there's a little too much seasoning in this receiving pot and that there is too much pressure on Rodgers and the coordinators to keep everyone involved. Jordy Nelson is back I hear, but this season he has tailed off from a remarkable 2011. Injuries and his running mate James Jones have been responsible, speaking of who, is really the main target in crucial situations now, a spot once held by a healthy Nelson. The emergence of Randall Cobb as more than just a kick returner has demanded he see the field often, perhaps more than he has so far. Greg Jennings is back and ready to go, that is, probably go elsewhere in 2013. Regardless, the Pack have the horses to move this wagon for sure, and an accurate gunslinger to fire the ball to them. Even old Donald Driver might get in some playoff catches. They are a load for any team and will be for even that stingy San Francisco defense this weekend. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I have Cobb and Nelson ranked #17 and #18, Jennings at #25 anticipating a new team, and James Jones currently unranked, until I see where he ends up.

TE: I don't know that Jermichael Finley helps so much as just adds another possibility for defenses to have to account for. He is just as liable to drop an easy catch as catch a difficult one, but he's conspicuous and almost always draws people in his direction. He has talent, one wonders how much the nagging injuries he's tried to play through has hindered his overall progress at his position. Tom Crabtree is an average talent who just might be earning more time if Finley doesn't get near his ceiling soon, or perhaps look for the Packers to tend to this position in the draft. My guess is they give Finley another year or two. He could sneak one in this week could Finley, especially if San Fran goes with a lot of blitzing to try and get to Rodgers. Down and out, 52-flat, 10 yards. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I see him as a #20ish TE as of right now.

Defense/Special Teams: In actuality a win against a one-dimensional Vikings offense at home shouldn't qualify your "defense being back" but this is precisely the talk in punditville across the land. Don't you believe it one second. The defense that cometh with the Iceman is a middling unit even when healthy, and especially on the road. They are vulnerable deep and against the run, and my bet is that is what the 49ers try to do. Still, because of their great offense this unit is almost always fresh and still does carry a penchant for the big play. Same with their return unit as long as Cobb is bringing them back. Fantasy-wise they will most certainly be drafted too early, by someone.

Kicker: The team has done the admirable thing and stayed with Mason "Bing" Crosby, but what they are calling a "slump" I'm calling "he'll be gone in 2013." It is entirely possibly that Crosby's woes hurt this team in its playoff run, not a good thing at a time when all points are to be cherished. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards yet.

II. San Francisco: For all their recent struggles on both sides of the ball, this team is still loaded with talent, especially with a defense that can still pack a wallop. If anyone is capable of stifling Green Bay it's still these 49ers, at least in the NFC. They will have their work cut out for them this weekend. Overall I see this team as average on offense, all things considered. Maybe it is true that in the long run the team is better off with Colin Kaepernick at QB, myself I am not sure the Colin-itis will last as long as some believe. If the Niners are to win on Saturday, they are going to have to do it with big plays on defense.

QB: Kaepernick has some talent but also some obvious weak points. He's not a needle-threader, his passes almost always reach the receiver in the wrong spot, and despite 2 years of learning he still has trouble reading coverages. His ball security is not all that great. But the kid is big and strong and can move, you can tell he loves to play, and his arm is plenty strong enough. On this day coming, though. I don't think Michael Crabtree will be left free to roam, and he better be looking elsewhere, that or be prepared to keep a few drives alive with his legs. I am not sure about his long-term potential. My best guess is he stays on and starts next season for the 49ers too. Accounting for some improvement and the nature of his offense, I have him at QB #17 right now for 2013.

RB: Everybody knows about Frank Gore, and he is another player who annually has his retirement papers written for him by the media-drones, but who nevertheless comes back and plays at a high level. He will see plenty of totes this weekend, you can bet the house, and I expect a combination of Gore and LaMichael James for flavor as the Niners try and eat up clock time in this one. Gore is explosive, can hit you inside or outside, and doesn't drop many passes. James hasn't shown me much yet. There is enough here, though, to have some success running the ball on the Packers. For 2013 fantasy I have Gore ranked #18, I expect that number to rise as he cements another starting season.

WR: Michael Crabtree has elevated his game recently, whether because of chemistry building with Kaepernick or because he finally put his head on straight. Beset with problems and injuries since his highly-acclaimed drafting two years ago, he does have the physical talent, when 100% healthy, to be an AJ Green type of player. His problems rather are all mental, he is a way too cocky for what he has accomplished at the pro level, and needs someone to step up next to him. On that note, Randy Moss is being sent as a decoy most plays, but when he's not he's been open, just has had hardly any balls come in his direction. Still, he may do something of a surprise Saturday, but not he, nor anyone else on the current 49ers roster, is that 2nd WR answer. Weakness here almost necessitates a ground game for San Francisco in this divisional round of the NFL playoffs. For fantasy purposes next year, I still can't see Crabtree higher than WR #40, but this number will likely change as the 2013 season approaches.

TE: What has happened to Vernon Davis? Yes he was Alex Smith's favorite safety valve, but still there were many plays designed for him in the past. Lately it has been the slightly quicker, better-handed Delanie Walker making the plays from the line. I look for Walker to get a score in this one, it's too bad the team hasn't figured out a way to get both these guys in at the same time. This can reinforce the opinion that Harbaugh does his best as a coaching motivator, and that his innovations on offense leave a lot to be desired. For 2013 fantasy, I'd probably take a shot at Davis at around TE #12 or so, but it is just as likely Walker passes him up by kickoff 2013. Keep a watch there.

Defense/Special Teams: As I've already mentioned, if the 49ers expect to win they are going to have to do it on Saturday with defense. Their biggest task to date this season is on the horizon, and I think they will step up and make this more difficult for the Packers than most expect. They will be a top drafted unit in 2013 fantasy leagues.

K: David Akers is in a slump and may have hit that proverbial brick wall. Going from being one of the best, most accurate kickers in the NFL, to a shaky proposition almost along the lines of Mason Crosby, can only be attributed to recent injuries and all that mileage. I say he goes good a couple times in this one, but I am sure the team will bring in some competition for him in 2013.

PREDICTED SCORE: I'd like to see the Packers lose, I don't know why but I would, I just am not sure that this present 49ers defense can stop Rodgers for four quarters. I think it will be another very good and close game. QB edge to Packers, RB edge to Niners; WR edge to Packers, TE edge to Niners; Defense edge to Niners, kicking edge to Niners. In an upset, SAN FRANCISCO 30, GREEN BAY 24.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Houston At New England

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: HOUSTON AT NEW ENGLAND

I. Houston: It's funny that a team that was doing so well has suddenly become a big longshot to even make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The Texans defense is its strongpoint this season, and despite some late-season struggles they still bring some heavy equipment to the field, the primary one being Mr. JJ Watt. It is a luxury for a defense to have guys (or more specifically, A guy) on the D-Line that require a blocking crew of at least two men every play. That Watt also moves around all over the place makes him like a blitzing linebacker in the frame of a defensive end. He is also relentless, and I personally am of the opinion this Texans (or "Texas" as some commentators like Al Michaels call them) team would be no better than 8-8 without him; Watt gets plenty of attention, and when opposing teams have been controlling him they have had some success moving the ball. All in all, this is probably the 4th best defense in this divisional round and no better, and that will make it difficult for them to stop the playoff-seasoned Patriots. On offense, Houston doesn't really scare anyone, and sometimes one has to wonder about the play-calling going on there. It seems as if the team is either in a) Arian Foster mode, or b) Andre Johnson mode, never a nice mix bouncing between their two offensive stars. Think how many times Johnson has had big days when the team bailed on the run, or how many times Johnson was forgotten when Foster was getting major touches. I think the defense is good enough to slow down New England, and I know these Texans can score on New England, if they call the right plays. If they fall behind early big and abandon the run game, I really do think they will have a better chance, by beating that Patriots secondary with Johnson.

QB: Well, I've never been a big Matt Schaub fan, and when you ask me why I find it difficult to explain. I mean you have to give him his due: since he has been a starter (HOU 2007), he is one of the most consistent QBs year to year in the NFL; he's thrown for over 4,000 yards 3 of the last 5 years, and more than 20 TDs 3 of the last 4 years, and the numbers would be better over the last 6 years if not for his missing time in 2011, 2007, and 2008. He is the profile of efficiency. I guess what it is, for me, is that Schaub doesn't seem to have that "just give me the ball and let me win it" attitude. I think as a leader he is too team-oriented almost to a fault. Sometimes you have to lead be example, this is desire as much as playing hard on the field. In short I think the knock on Schaub is he is efficient because he doesn't take enough chances, for fear probably of letting down his team if he fails. I am not saying this is true, I am saying this is what it appears. He seems personable and a nice guy and all, but can you see him saying in the huddle "come on guys, suck it up we need this one"? How about audibling at the line like the Mannings, or even Andrew Luck? He doesn't seem clutch, and is not a guy I want when I need a score with 2 minutes on the clock. But he provides enough efficiency to beat the Patriots secondary on Sunday. Fantasy football-wise, he is a middling prospect, someone always under consideration by those who wait to draft a QB.

RB: Arian Foster is well known in NFL and fantasy football circles alike as one of the best RBs in the league. I agree with that assessment, but much of that is because of the really thin line of superstar runners in the game today. Nevertheless, Foster run smoothly, almost effortlessly, and his true comparison is Eric Dickerson, as Foster runs upright at times, and sometimes even with those Dickerson-like long, high strides; he doesn't so much "hit" a hole as "step through" that hole. One school of thought would say Houston should come out on Sunday and run Foster until New England stops him. Then again, it is this history on offense of one dimension-or the other, rather than a mix of both, that's caused them a lot of grief and, I think, ballgames.
Fantasy-wise, Foster will be a top 5 RB again. Backup Ben Tate is a good RB, seems to have dropped off a bit this season, but holds fantasy value as long as he is getting 2nd team reps.

WR: Every year there is some talk of Andre Johnson's demise, but, not unlike Anquin Boldin in Baltimore, Johnson always manages to produce, and big, when the team utilizes him in the game plan. What I mean to say is the only thing that keeps some players from being the best is the "spread the ball around" mentality big in the NFL these days. If you spread the ball around to people less effective than the one you should be getting the ball to, is it really an advantage to your team? I understand the variety necessary to keep coverages loose, but you have to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. In a sense every man in the NFL is a playmaker, or he wouldn't be there. But coaches know who should be buttering their bread, I think sometimes they try to be too fancy. Anyway, next year in fantasy football Johnson will be a top 5 wide receiver again, it would help him stay there if the team drafted a steady compliment to him. Devier Posey, LeStar Jean, these are guys who do what Johnson does, and not nearly as well. Kevin Walter is what they need more of, or at least, somebody who can do the type of things he is good at, like picking up 4 yards when you need it and moving the chains. For this game I am sure Johnson will be double covered in every passing situation, let's see if the Texans realize this and go to him on running downs. Fantasy-wise for 2013, no Houston receiver other than Johnson is draftable unless a clear-cut #2 emerges in the offseason. If you are gonna place a bet, put it on a draft pick (would be 3rd in 3 years for them) or Posey, who has some flash.

TE: Here is where I think the Texans have their best chance of outwitting the Patriots Sunday. If they can use Daniels and Casey at the same time they can loosen up coverage on the outside for the wideouts and disguise some run plays that much better. They would also have 2 very capable pass-catchers on the field for Schaub to use as outlets when the crowd gets loud in Foxboro. I know we live in an age when everything is specialized and there is a personnel package also in football for every situation. One would think you'd have better success at fooling your opponent if you rarely tip your hand and run the same players and formations all the time, but again, what do I know? Fantasy-wise, for 2013, Daniels will be a middle-of-the-road prospect if he's healthy and can hold off whichever rookie they bring in, I have him now as TE #17.

Defense/Special Teams: As stated, Houston's defense is over-rated as a whole at this point in the season. As goes Watt goes the defense. The special teams is nothing special and will not be a difference maker on Sunday. With some offseason help this team will cement its top 10 status in fantasy drafts in 2013.

Kicker: Shayne Graham is a top-tier kicker and has been playing like a fantasy superstar the last few weeks, not coincidentally because of the Texans' recent failings in the red zone. Still, I wonder if he can kick one to win it with 2 seconds left in a frigid Foxboro. There's no such track record. For fantasy in 2013, you could do much worse at kicker.

II. New England: The Patriots sit yet again as the favorites to win another Super Bowl and, after a week of rest, are coming to play at home to a sold-out crowd. Their defense has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy players in 2012, but is really a mediocre unit when it comes preventing yardage and scores. They have their moments, surely enough to at least slow the opposition down enough so Brady can outscore them. They have also come up big when needed several times this season. The offense needs no mention and consistently puts up points on just about everyone. Don't expect that to change on Sunday.

QB: Why some people don't like Tom Brady (I've even heard "I hate Brady" more than I care to remember) I really can't say, except the obvious: people are jealous of his money, his success, his gorgeous famous wife, and all that, but maybe it's just because he whips these folks' favorite teams all the time. He is a winner, a clutch player, a fiery competitor who hates losing, a leader by example, and a guy you want on your team when you need some fast points. He does have a tendency to seek the man rather than the open route, something all the greats do, and like every QB except perhaps a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, can get rattled in the pocket and be forced into mistakes, but these are all nitpicking when it comes to Brady. He prepares like the best and executes with the best, and to top it off he is a proven multiple Super Bowl winner and sure-fire Hall Of Famer. Fantasy-wise in 2013, he won't be available after QB3 and if he is, sell the farm to get him, as he shows no sign of slowing down.

RB: Stevan Ridley, in my opinion, can be even better than his breakout 2012 shows. Constantly losing carries to Woodhead and others for the sake of Belichick's successful insistence on imbalance probably cost him a couple hundred yards and about 6 TDs. He is not unlike the BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Patriots lost to the Bengals and fills the role well, even if he hasn't proven to be quite as good at the goal line yet. Shane Vereen will also get a carry here and there, but Danny Woodhead is the perennial wildcard that has earned these Patriots a lot of needed first downs, and who has provided many a spark to his team. They have enough to win a ground game, but I am not sure they will have success going that route this week against Houston. Fantasy-wise, Ridley is currently my RB #13, and Woodhead makes an appearance on my 2013 list late, too.

WR: Considering how good this team is and how many points they drop on people you would think this group to be world-beaters, but really they are not. Wes Welker is solid, though not what he once was as far as quicks go, and Brandon Lloyd is a seasoned veteran also who has golden hands, but who disappointed for most of the season before finally coming on strong as of late. I suggest the reason for their comparative small numbers is attributable to the great tight ends on the roster which we shall discuss in a moment. These guys are capable plenty and the Texans better not sleep on them, but they aren't the main threat. For fantasy football in 2013 so far I have Welker ranked perhaps "low" at 15, as I anticipate even further decline, and Lloyd at WR #31.

TE: Here is where the Patriots still kill people. Everyone knows Brady will be looking for Rob Gronkowski around the end zone, and about 20 yards down the seam, they double cover the Gronk, and still it's 6 points on the board. There are just so many weapons here it is difficult to shut the whole team down. You as a defense almost certainly have to rely on 1-on-1 matchup successes or you are doomed, or better rely on luck and a lot of turnovers. To top it off there is Gronk's partner in crime Aaron Hernandez, who when not battling one injury or another is a top 3 or 4 TE prospect himself. Next season in fantasy Gronkowski will likely be drafted again in rounds 1-3, and if he lasts to round 3 he better be yours. Hernandez won't last much longer than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 TDs from the tight end position on Sunday.

Defense/Special Teams: The best you can say is that this defensive unit could be great on Sunday against the Texans. If they are Championship caliber they are barely so, but they should have a strong game on Sunday. They are just not dominant often enough, leaving the offense to have to score a lot of points too often. Their special teams are better than average even if they rarely return kicks for TDs.

Kicker: Gostkowski can hit from 50 in Foxboro and that's good enough. He'll again be a top kicker chosen in fantasy drafts in 2013.

PREDICTED SCORE: I think Houston will come out determined and get some early stops against the Patriots, but they won't be able to keep it up long enough. Expect the Patriots firepower to eventually expose this Houston defense. QB edge to Pats, RB edge to Texans, WRs even, home field to Patriots, defense to Texans, kickers even, big TE edge to Pats. PATRIOTS 38 Texans 23.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Baltimore At Denver

Fantasy football may be over for most of us in 2012, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what goes on the rest of the way. As fans the majority of us will anyway, but the astute fantasy player can gain some good information for next season by making note of how this season will end. First of all let's check the facts as we now have them, make some scouting-type observations on what has so far transpired, then finally offer some predictions for next weekend.

The Divisional Rounds of the NFL Postseason are set for January 12th and 13th, next Saturday and Sunday. There will be four games to decide which teams make it into the Conference Championship Games for both the AFC and NFC, and the winners of those Championship Games will play against each other in Super Bowl XLVII.The remaining teams:

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: BALTIMORE AT DENVER

I. Baltimore: looking unpredictable on offense and improving - or rather getting back to their normal selves - on defense. Struggled for a while today with that Indy defense, but you can't tell much from that as Indianapolis is improving on that side of the ball. But the Ravens' offense should concern this team more than its defense which should be OK now with the return of their main motivator. And always plus one for Ed Reed.

QB: I can understand the problems Ravens management has with signing Flacco long term. When he wants to he can throw one of the prettiest and most accurate balls in the league, he has plenty of arm and enough leadership qualities. He is, however, often inexplicably erratic, basically immobile (and I don't simply mean he is not a a running QB, he doesn't always seem to have that peripheral vision and awareness in the pocket), and will often lead his receivers the wrong direction. Compared to other QBs in the league, though, Flacco's line keeps him standing most of the time; he doesn't take many sacks, and some of this may be attributable to his relatively quick release. Flacco normally provides enough to make it all the way to the Super Bowl, it's 50/50 whether he can do enough on his own to win one. Fantasy-wise, despite a hot start to his season, I don't want him for anything more than a backup. Probably a top backup, but I wouldn't take him for my every-week starter. I'd go gray even faster.

RB: The team must really like what they have found in Bernard Pierce and I tend to agree with their assessment. I am a fan of Ray Rice, and so are the Ravens, yet he lost out on quite a few carries this year to the upstart Pierce who - if he can display some of Ray Rice's long-term durability, may actually be better than Rice. The backs are strong for this squad and provide plenty to win a ground game in these playoffs, with, again, a strong enough defense to support that approach. They should have been used even more the past 6 or so Ravens games. Fantasy-wise, I have dropped Rice a bit in my 2013 Preseason rankings to reflect the reduced workload and passes heading in his direction, and also because we still don't know what kind of offense this will end up being. You could in fact be looking at the next DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart two-headed monster in Baltimore next season. By the way, I think Anthony Allen has never been given as much of a chance as Pierce, but that he is also good enough to start on another football team. Something to look out for if the third-stringer gets traded or released. Whoever it is who has been picking the RBs on this team (Harbaugh? Ozzie Newsome? Vince?) knows what he is doing and can spot talent.

WR: I like the duo of Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, and it's good for the Ravens that they have them because behind the two there isn't a whole lot. To me Boldin is playing as well as he ever has, and when he gets shut out of the box score it's simply because he is not in the game plan and not targeted, but even then he will be out there blocking like a tight end. His speed looks to me same as it ever was, never burning but quick, and he has those nice soft hands. Torrey Smith I think is a good player whose fortunes rise and fall with those of his QB Flacco (see above). When Flacco can hit him open deep, Torrey Smith is a beast. When he can't, sometimes the whole attempt just looks silly. They have enough with the emergence of Pitta to win a game with these receivers, I am not sure they could come back from a more than 14 points deficit very quickly with them. Fantasy-wise, Smith is the DeSean Jackson of the AFC, just a little more durable. I have him ranked slightly ahead of Boldin because I just don't see them giving Boldin more looks in the future. But we'll see.

TE: Dennis Pitta can be one of the best TEs in this league, whether he will or not depends on how the team chooses to use him in the future. Ed Dickson is a capable blocker and adequate receiver but doesn't provide the downfield presence that Pitta does. I see Pitta as a young Jason Witten, if he can stay healthy, improve his blocking, and gain some of Witten's year-to-year consistency. He is probably faster than Witten ever was too. Pitta ranks out to me in fantasy land as a top 10 2013 selection at the position, barring any extreme offensive changes. He could be a difference maker for them this postseason.

Defense and Special Teams: The Ravens return team is one of the best and Jacoby Jones can take one to the house on any kickoff. He is too excitable or my taste, probably the reason he is usually kept on special teams. He has tones of speed and moves, and his hands are good enough, but he runs wrong routes, doesn't block well enough, and lets his emotions get the best of him. He needs meditation, or something like that. He reminds me of Ted Ginn. The Defense as I have already mentioned is good enough to win the Super Bowl, don't listen to the stories of this unit's demise.

Kicker: Justin Tucker is a middling fantasy prospect for me because I don't trust him yet, his recent misses are troublesome. But he has plenty of leg and plays on an offense conducive to kicker scoring. Watch how he does in the offseason and 2013 preseason before making him yours next year.

II. Denver: Peyton Manning has been sitting home drinking Kool-Aid while the wildcard games have been played out because the Broncos earned a bye and get to host the Ravens next weekend. Their defense is playing as well as it has all season, which is about as well as it has the past decade or so. It's amazing what having an efficient QB can do to boost a defense. Rest is a many-splendored thing during a game.

QB: And speaking of quarterbacks, Peyton Manning has ridden his "reduced arm strength" and "reduced accuracy" to a possible league MVP honor in 2012. Not too shabby for a class act with a bad shoulder. I think Peyton is still the Peyton he was with Indianapolis. While this seems a good thing, I have noticed his "happy feet" seem to be increasing, and he has never had too much luck against the Ravens. He will have to deal next weekend with as much pressure as he has all season, but it is doubtful that the Ravens can keep him off the field long enough to render him ineffective. Fantasy-wise, he is still top tier, he just is allowed so much control, and has no fear of tossing it around, that he is still elite in fantasy land.

RB: Good for Knowshon Moreno that he finally been given his chance. He was a great college back at Georgia who got better the more times he touched the ball. Between being wrongly utilized and often injured, and without a strong QB presence to reduce those stacked boxes, Moreno had struggled in the NFL in the past. Add in the presence of the formidable if a bit old Willis McGahee, and overall I am happy for the young man. He definitely has what it takes to lead his team to a victory, in fact I don't think even the Broncos really know yet how good Moreno can be when given the opportunities. He will get those chances on Saturday. Fantasy-wise, I have him ranked just below the sure starters, 21st right now, as there is no telling yet what will happen when (and if) Willis McGahee returns in 2013. Should he be declared the starter and given starter carries, he will emerge ranked between the 11th and 15th RB.

WR: Again, it's amazing what a good QB can do to the stats of your wideouts, too. Both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas had fine seasons and provide more than enough outside weaponry for Denver to win this home game coming up. Decker is a good, savvy WR with not top-off but plenty of speed, good dedication and desire, good hands, and good blocking. He gets a lot of looks from Peyton, and rightfully so, as teams can't cover both him and Thomas with two men each. This seems to me the next big trend in the NFL, that is the acquisition of TWO "Number One Receivers" a la Julio Jones-Roddy White, or what Dez Bryant and Miles Austin were supposed to be. Thomas is very fast downfield, has decent hands, is still learning routes, and has proven to be a bit fragile. Therefore fantasy-wise, for 2013, I have Decker ranked higher than Thomas, and probably higher than anyone, at WR #7. I suspect this could drop over the offseason, but I can't see him as lower than #15 in any case, as long as Thomas is on the other side and Manning is throwing the ball.

TE: Fantasy players in 2012 were a bit disappointed by the Denver tight ends; collectively the production of Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme was pretty impressive, the problem is you can only play one of them at a time, and you never knew which one it would be scoring or even catching the balls on any given week. This too is a tendency in the NFL, the utilization of more players at every position. I would hate it if I was playing, to be taken in and out of a game like that, but what do I know, I don't get paid to coach...but see commentary Moreno, Knowshon, and Rice, Ray above.Some players need to get worked up and into the game. These two, anyway, are not Gronkowski and Hernandez, but they are unpredictable and good enough to make plays and be difference makers on Saturday. Fantasy-wise for 2013, I have them ranked TEs #17 and #18, right next to each other, for now.

Defense/Special Teams: I'm not too impressed with Denver's special teams unit, and this could be a problem for them on Saturday against the Ravens. The defense is playing superb and should stifle Baltimore for the most part. Fantasy-wise for 2013 they will be a top-tier unit.

Kicker: Matt Prater is a decent kicker who doesn't get as many chances as some because of Manning's efficiency in the red zone

PREDICTION: Home field edge to the Broncos, special teams edge to Ravens, kickers about even,WR edge to Broncos, TE edge to Ravens, RBs even for this game, QB big edge to Broncos, Defenses about even. I don't like Manning's playoff record or history against Baltimore, and I expect at least one Ravens TD on special teams somehow. But I trust Flacco in the playoffs even less, so while I will enjoy this game I think in the end the Ravens just won't be able to score enough points to keep up with Manning and the Broncos.
PREDICTED SCORE: Denver 27 Baltimore 20.

Next post, Seattle at Atlanta

Fantasy Fallout: Full Disclosure

Now that all my 2012 fantasy football teams have concluded their seasons I've decided to provide a full disclosure as to my success and failure this year. Knowing how many are prone to exaggerate their success, I provide this information both for my own record and to assist anyone working on "chances of success in fantasy football" statistics. I invite others to comment here on their own seasons for comparative purposes.

In 2012 I played leagues both for money and for free. I played only five money games this year.
1. $100 league. Came in 3rd, paid $40
2. $100 league. Came in 3rd, paid $160
3. $50 league. Won it, paid $220 and a trophy
4. $30 league (stinking budget...). Came in 3rd, no prize
5. $30 league (ditto). Came in 2nd, paid $60.

That's a total output of 310 bucks but actually I paid $285 because of discounts for being a repeat player in two of those leagues. Let's call it $300 spent. $300 out, $480 in, means I made a profit of 180 bucks and one trophy for the season. I'm happy with it because I love the game and would play all season just to break even, or even if it cost me a bit. But playing this game for over 20 years (21st in 2012...yes I remember too the USA Today mail-ins...) I have been made aware of some things I think unfair to players. To make it short, I think people are making too much money running leagues.

If you start from the premise that 12 people contribute 100 dollars each you have 1200 in the kitty. By all rights then at the end of the season 1200 should be paid out. I understand completely that resources are not free, that even statistics cost money. But I also know that in this age of immediate news that one human with one computer and an internet connection can accomplish a lot. One feed can be multiplied fairly easily into 10,000 with little to no extra expenditure. I also know that today there are literally dozens of quality websites offering free or very low-cost league hosting with features that come close to, if not exceed those that cost more money. Yes, some of them submit us to advertising, but in fact some of the paid ones do as well, AS WELL as place you on mailing lists. So, while 12 busy people should be willing to part with a bit of the kitty for convenience's sake, and let's remember IN THE BEGINNING of fantasy football whoever hosted the draft at least got beer brought to his house, I think the 20% and upwards that is the norm in the pay-to-play industry is too much. A Commish should be rewarded, not that much given the technology available today.

Some more disclosure about these leagues and my performance in them can further elaborate this. Numbers refer to the numbers three paragraphs above.

1. This league was not run by me, it was run by another popular internet site that I have mixed feelings about and which is one reason I began this blog. This league is FULL of ringers, I have played it four years in a row. Even though it pays out some of the best on the internet it NEVER has paid out more than 75% of moneys collected, and the number has been getting even lower as the years go by. I think that's too much of a fee. Also on the negative side, this host also has an ugly website that hasn't changed much in years. The logo and customization options are lousy, customer service fair-to-middlin, site navigation difficult, and user interaction not easy to accomplish. On the positive side, the league pays winners promptly, the competition is excellent, the scoring systems good, and trading tightly controlled. Why do I play there? Because even at its lousy payout rate, if I want to "get a game" it's the best I can find online! The players are there.

I want to provide these players a better alternative. FREE HOSTING allows me to increase payouts, nearly FREE PAYMENT PROCESSING through leaguesafe.com for example allows us easy escrow and so no money problems. I say "nearly" free because Leaguesafe charges at this time $1.50 (yes that's ONE DOLLAR and fifty cents) for winners to withdraw their money by mailed check. This covers mailing and the credit card payment processing you use when you pay for your league, and I think it is a bargain. New services of similar operation are also popping up. All we need is the players who want the best.

Anyway I lost my playoff game in this one and it hurt because some of my usual bangers did diddly on that day. Reggie Wayne and Ray Rice for example did nothing in a PPR and I actually would have been better off starting my bench! But it was fun, because I love the game.

2. This is a league I have hosted for 8 years, the past few online at ESPN for free. It pays out 100% because it is basically only long-time friends and family, with the occasional fill-in friend. Of the 8 years online I have won this league once, 5 years ago, and never since! Anyway it is always fun because we really utilize the message boards, send each other taunting and inflammatory pics, and overall it's a blast. Whether I win this league or not makes no difference, I win seeing everybody playing together. Still, because I am a beast, I will enjoy spending their 60 beans.

ESPN has done a good job for us. It limits how many leagues one person can run to 10. 10 of our URFL fantasy football leagues will be there. Its ads are prominent but not often intrusive.

3. This is the same host as #1. Another nasty, viciously competitive league. You have to be on your toes at all times. Third year in it, my first win, though I did make the playoffs last season. This host, by the way, while pay, does use advertisements.

4. and 5. Out of desparation this year and apparently not having enough to do, I started two on-the-whim shotgun last-second leagues on NFL.com using their message boards and leaguesafe.com for the money. Within 6 hours of my initial postings-calls for players I had two 10-team $30 leagues scheduled to draft and ready to go. Because of the small amount of money and number of teams I limited the payouts to first and second in league #4, and so I won nothing for a strong 3rd place. One Steven Hauschka field goal on a night when the vaunted San Francisco Defense could not keep the Seahawks out of the end zone would have had me in the title game. But, alas, I eat dirt. In league 5, I picked up the Tennesse D and after 34 from them thought I was a lock to win, but then DeAngelo Williams did his annual explosion on the wrong day for me and so I lost out on the 220 bucks and instead get that bridesmaid's reward.

I also played 12 free leagues on ESPN, FOX, and NFL.com. I won 5 championships, 4 second places, 1 third, and 2 gutterballs. I should mention that while the competition is not on the level of the leagues I pay to play in it has been getting better all the time with few teams being abandoned nowadays.

I will close up this post by mentioning an observation. In one of these free leagues I was in a team owner set his lineup once, before Week One, and never changed it all season. Despite injuries, bye weeks, and a league of stiff competition, he wound up with a 7-8 record and at one point was 7-4.

Fantasy football. It's about fun, communication, competition, and a little luck. URFL leagues let you keep it that way and leave the profit for the players.