Tuesday, April 30, 2013

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC East

The NFL draft's completion means the new season is underway. Here at the URFL, it means we will begin setting up our 2013 fantasy football leagues in just a few weeks. For fantasy franchise owners, the post-draft is a good time to look at the impact drafted players will have on their real world teams and, consequently, their fantasy point-producing possibilities. In this post I take a look at the AFC East team drafts, give each of them a grade, and then assess any projected fantasy impact.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots: The Pats did not get to pick until the 20th selection in Round 2, choosing to trade down and stockpile later picks. Apparently coach Belicheck and his staff found the talent just as good deeper into the draft. Still, you have to question this whole draft, not Coach's ability to spot talent, but rather when he chose to take the players he did. Most, if not all of them, could have been had later than when they were selected, and in this writer's opinion, missing out on any of them would not have been so devastating at all.

Had they retained their first round pick, New England could have had Ogletree, Carradine, Hankins, or Short. Instead they selected Jamie Collins in Round 2, a smart player who could start right away, but who was not anywhere near the value of those other defenders. Dobson is an OK receiver but, again, could have been had probably two rounds later, and Patterson would have been there for them in Round 1, too, had they chosen to go that route. Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon are wildcards and actually help this draft's grade because they could compete for jobs immediately, despite being lesser-known players. On those two we have to trust the Coach, but for now we can only grade what we see. GRADE: C-

Fantasy Implications: Dobson and Boyce have a chance at an opportunity and the situation is worth keeping an eye on, but other than that, don't expect any new fantasy producers up near Boston, at least via this draft.

2. Miami Dolphins: Under heavy fire and gasping for air, in Miami it is GM Ireland that everyone talks about, and the talk has not been good. Coach Philbin, it seems, has not yet been allocated any responsibility for any moves prior to last season. This year, though, Philbin will have to at least begin to bear some brunt of the responsibility. This draft, for instance, must include his impetus somewhere along the line. Regardless, the 'Phins were aggressive in this draft, trading up to grab Dion Jordan, then making a solid hit with Jamar Taylor in the 2nd. Clearly their "need" was playmaking defensive players, and they got two of the best in this draft.

Had Miami stayed put they would have certainly missed out on Jordan, but could have had Star Lotulelei, Sharif Floyd, Bjorn Woerner, Datone Jones, or even Ogletree. Remember Menelik Watson was taken by the Raiders with the pick they got from Miami, so theoretically they could have had any of those impact defenders, plus a slightly better lineman than Dallas Thomas. But it's hard to criticize this draft. Jordan was picked to play and he will start. Knowing Miami, Taylor will start right away also, and my bet would be Thomas starts some games, if not all of them. Will Davis is even money to win a job, at least as an extra nickel back. Even Gillislee, I predict, will get playing time. So, from that perspective, this draft is a success. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: You should watch the defense early in camp and in preseason because, for all the hooplah, they could be either better or worse than last year. Caleb Sturgis, the first kicker chosen in the draft, and one of three Gators taken by Miami in the late rounds, will be given every chance to win the job from the Carpenter, and my guess is he succeeds; those missed kicks by Carpenter last year stung. I am also supposing that Gillislee wins the backup role to Lamar Miller, and will supplant him if Miller struggles. One thing is for sure, Miami's backfield just got quicker. Forgetting for a minute about the questions at left tackle, one must first ask whether Tannehill is the answer. In many ways this team will go in 2013 as goes Tannehill.

3. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo does the bluff not only on football pundits but also on Ryan Nassib. We can only scantly imagine how he felt as Goddell went to the podium and said "...the Buffalo Bills select quarterback...EJ Manuel." All I'm hearing is a drain sound...Anyway, Buffalo's draft has to begin and end with Manuel. There are many questions we could ask here. Yes, the trade down was beneficial, but let's remember which slot they held, that same slot with which the Rams took Austin.

Could Manuel have been available in Round 2? I say, yes he could have been. Robert Woods is a fine receiver, and will help the Bills, but a fast slot man to complement Stevie would have been even better. Alonso is a high-motor guy I like to succeed in the NFL, he will start for the Bills, and speedster Marquise Goodwin could put TJ Graham's job in jeopardy as the third receiver. All in all Buffalo grabbed some nice players, but Manuel that early is a head scratcher, he probably could have been had in Round 3. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: A whole bunch. Kolb might best Manuel in accuracy but that's about it. I fully expect Manuel to win this QB job outright in camp, and the Bills will be dramatically improved because of the move. He will be ranked as a draftable QB somewhere around Jay Cutler range, and I will have him ahead of Cutler, Freeman, Locker, Tannehill, and many other known commodities. As for the other receivers, what they do in this west-cost offense will depend on the maturation of Manuel. If indeed he picks up the system quickly, as everyone seems to think he can do, all four of the receivers - Woods, Goodwin, Stevie, and Graham - must be put on the fantasy radar. If I had to choose today, I would draft Stevie, then Woods, and maybe take a late flier on Goodwin. Also expect rookie Dustin Hopkins, Manuel's fellow Nole, to win the Bills' kicking job.

4. New York Jets: The Jets made little noise in the draft, choosing to address needs with their picks, and also lucking out by grabbing their new starting QB - in Round 3. Brian Winters is a so-so lineman who will make the team but probably not the starting lineup, but the lineman to watch here is 5th rounder Oday Aboushi. He is big, very smart, and still learning the fine points of his craft. I think you will see the coaches take to him and make him into a starter by midseason.

Sheldon Richardson has the talent to be considered the steal of the draft at pick #13. While I think Dee Milliner was drafted too high, I think the Richardson pick does a flip-flop to correct the error. Really, it's LBs the Jets need, and they didn't so much as sniff one. Still, something had to be sacrificed. If I did their draft, I would have taken Ogletree, follwing it up with Richardson and then a DB like Trufant or Amerson. Yet, they added at least three starters, likely four, and let's not forget a Geno Smith, projected to go in Round 1 in a "QB light" draft, scooped up in Round 3. If Milliner succeeds, this draft is an A+. If he struggles, as I expect, A- anyway.

Fantasy Implications: Geno Smith has his faults, but he will be given the job as soon as Sanchez becomes, well, Sanchez-like. I would not bet the farm that Smith is the opening week starter, at least not yet, but he should see the field before the midway point of the season. If he wins the job he becomes very draftable in fantasy. Other than that, no new playmakers came to the Jets via the draft, but Chris Ivory, acquired via trade, suddenly complicates the backfield situation even more. Keep an eye out there.

Next time, the AFC West.

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