Saturday, May 4, 2013

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC West

AFC West

Denver Broncos: The immediate contributions by the Broncos' first two picks will define this draft. Sylvester Williams was a good grab that should help ease the pain of realizing Elvis has left the building. They also, in my opinion, took the co-best RB (1A with LeVeon Bell) available in this draft by selecting Monte Ball. The fact that these picks were made late in both Rounds 1 and 2 makes them even better choices.

With the exception of Quanterus Smith, who might surprise everyone and be on the field as much as Sly Williams in 2013, the rest of the Broncos' draft is no better than average. They could have had Kayvon Webster in the 5th round, for example. Zac Dysert is an intriguing pickup, he is fully able to win the backup job to Manning, just don't expect Peyton to be a willing mentor. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: Dysert, no matter what he does, will never see the field as long as Manning is upright. But keep an eye on him. The position to watch here is at RB, where Monte Ball has the skills to be a good full-time runner for this team. He is a natural workhorse back not unlike Knowshon Moreno was, only with better durability. That same Moreno, as well as (currently) Willis McGahee, and Ronnie Hillman, are all that stand in the way of Ball and a full-time job. I don't think the Broncos drafted Ball in Round 2 to play special teams, return kicks, or sit and learn. I believe they will play him, the question is, who else will get carries besides Ball? If I had to gamble now, I say they keep all four backs, unless they can trade one of the other three for a pick. Hillman is undraftable in fantasy in 2013 regardless of what happens, he is thought of by the team as at best a change-of-pace guy. Moreno is a good back, always has been, but has struggled to adjust to coming off the field in the pros; he is used to playing every down, and needs to get warmed up to be most effective, in fact I believe this going from full-time to part-time has contributed to his injury problems, and you see how much better he played when given the opportunity to be a three-down back last season. McGahee might have some left in the tank, but that remains to be seen, he was wearing down before last year's injuries and he could also be released. If I ran the team I trade or release McGahee OR Hillman, ride Moreno and groom Ball for the role. Definitely keep an eye on how this shakes out. Tavarres King is a decent WR, but there would have to be an injury for him to see much game time. He could return kicks, though.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs could have used their top position to acquire a few strategic pieces in the draft. This team's roster is talented and much better than last year's record would indicate. Drafting left tackle Eric Fisher number one overall is a case in point. They already had (and as of today still have) a good starting left tackle in Branden Albert, yet the team drafted as number one overall a starting left tackle anyway. Apparently owner and staff felt there were no positions of greater need, that's how talented is the roster.

In fact, over-estimating the talent of the players on this roster may have played a part in the Chiefs' very pedestrian draft. Kelce at TE is ignoring greater needs but is a decent pick in Round 3, Knile Davis is overrated at RB and probably could have been had two rounds later, Sanders Commings and Nico Johnson could find reserve spots, but nothing stands out as addressing needs. In fact, undrafted QB Tyler Bray could turn out to be the only gem, other than Fisher, in the long run. Moeaki and Fasano make the Travis Kelce selection even more of a head scratcher, it's quite possible they release Moeaki, unless Andy Reid intends to incorporate some two-TE offense. The Chiefs should have taken a WR early, in the spot they chose Kelce. Bowe and Avery are fine at WR, but behind them there is only unproven and so far unsuccessful depth, and nobody that scares you downfield. It was a position of greater need. A solid backup for Dontari Poe, a speedy edge rusher, all would have been better choices for this team. They got a great lineman, one they really didn't need, and that's about it. Grade: D

Fantasy Implications: Kelce is it. We know what Fasano and Moeaki can do. Kelce comes highly regarded, often compared to Rob Gronkowski in both playing style and off-field antics, and does show some skills. I bet he sees the field a lot and relegates Moeaki to strictly blocking duties. He's worth a late round grab as a TE2, even in a TE1 slot if he shows in preseason that he can take the job. Alex Smith and Reid both like throwing to the TE.

San Diego Chargers: Going into this draft the Bolts knew they had lots of holes to fill. The OL was a mess, LB and DB slots also needed upgrades, Matthews isn't getting the job done at RB and has aging Ronnie Brown behind him, Rivers is showing signs of decline, and there is still nobody at TE to give Gates' old legs a rest. The team took DJ Fluker with their first pick, essentially the best available tackle, with plenty of beef and motor but some character concerns. They took another chance on character by grabbing Te'o in Round 2, then snagged a good WR in Keenan Allen in Round 3. Their picks in Rounds 5 and 6, though, really make this draft better.

The Chargers should have traded up and landed one of the big two if they wanted a tackle. They also should be more aggressive in the free agent talks with available linemen. Non-aggressive would be a good way to describe this team's approach to this draft in general. Fluker will start right away, with all the goods and bads in place, and Te'o will play all three downs in San Diego because he is needed all three downs. Keenan Allen will compete with Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown for receptions after Danario Alexander and Gates get theirs. In the Williamses, though, Tourek and Steve, the Chargers found solid underrated value and both those players will not only make the 2013 San Diego squad, but also win starting roles. Steve Williams is small but reminds you of Brent Grimes with his tenacity and ball skills, and Tourek could very well be this year's Jason Pierre-Paul. Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Brad Sorensen, their last pick, could stick as Rivers' backup, but is no fantasy factor otherwise. Keenan Allen is the only other possibility. My guess is the team uses him to return kicks at first, then he eventually wins the 3rd receiver job.

Oakland Raiders: Arguably no team had more holes to fill coming into this draft than Da Raidas. Years of overpaying mediocre talent has taken its toll on this team. While the late Al Davis usually is cited as the cause, it must be remembered that Davis gave his coaches and GMs much respect and control over the team. He was in this way no more intrusive than Jerry Jones, or even Mr. Khan. It is, rather, the absence of talented leadership by players on the field that has promoted a losing, even giving-up attitude in Oakland the past few years. It seems this team has no leaders. Going into the draft, that should have been their priority. DJ Hayden, their first selection, could fill that role.  Menelik Watson is a nice pickup for the OL, but they did not do enough to grab value with their many late picks.

Watson will start on the line, and Hayden will start as well. Tyler Wilson could be the second Wilson to unseat a projected-to-start Matt Flynn, and Sio Moore should find his way into a starting LB role in this defense. But there are big question marks around all the other Raiders 2013 draft picks. They took two TEs in Kasa and Rivera, but they are both average propects on par with several current NFL free agents. They should have traded up to grab Kelce or Escobar if they wanted a TE, although they let a decent one go in Brandon Myers. Grade: C-

Fantasy Implications: Well it does get interesting from this perspective. As I have said, Tyler Wilson could show enough to sit Matt Flynn yet again and become the new staring Raiders QB. Latavius Murray is a RB selection to keep in your back pocket. He has a special skill set and has all the tools to win the lucrative backup job to Darren McFadden and, considering his competition, should do so easily. Keep an eye on the TE duo, too. David Ausberry should lose his starting job to one of them.

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