Fantasy Football Player Rankings: UR's June Top 120

Since it is all the rage to make NFL Top player lists this time of year, it only seems fair that there be a list made that ranks players for fantasy football point production purposes. While I have done this ranking already by position (see the "Preseason Rankings" tab, above), and will amend that page as necessary, this list may be considered my order of selection were I to draft today. Don't confuse this player ranking with an evaluation of talent, or of a player's value to his team. I also will not amend this list, but put up one similar, and updated, in July.

The rule assumptions are for a PPR league such as I run. See the URFL Leagues page (tab above) for more info on that, as well as scoring and lineup details.

1. Adrian Peterson - Has to be #1 right now.
2. Doug Martin - Almost getting too popular now. Sophomore slump?
3. Arian Foster - If he's healthy he stays here.
4. Ray Rice - Still the man on passing downs.
5. Alfred Morris - Like him, hard to take him here though in PPR.
6. CJ Spiller - Don't forget about FredJax, but dude can move.
7. Calvin Johnson - Seems safer to me than RBs to follow.
8. Jamaal Charles - Reid will use him often. Will he survive?
9. Trent Richardson - I'll let you have him, but belongs here.
10. Dez Bryant - Special abilities and I want him.
11. Brandon Marshall - Scored more PPR points than Megatron 2012.
12. Marshawn Lynch - Michael, Harvin,  and rock hands drop him.
13. Steven Jackson - Stays only if he gets 3rd down work.
14. Stevan Ridley - Assuming he'll be ready and get 2012 numbers.
15. Andre Johnson - Only Hopkins drops him a tad.
16. Matt Forte - Can score in bunches in PPR.
17. Chris Johnson - Assuming he'll be the 3rd down back.
18. AJ Green - Something bugs me about him. Seems thin...
19. Maurice Jones-Drew - Assuming he returns to his old job.
20. Demaryius Thomas - Beware of all those target-hogs in DEN...
21. Julio Jones - Should be higher but is a big play guy.
22. LeSean McCoy - New coach, Bryce Brown, call me skeptical.
23. Randall Cobb - A steal here, but lots of target competition.
24. Drew Brees - Sorry can't wait any longer on Brees.
25. Aaron Rodgers - Almost a sure 15 + points every week.
26. Peyton Manning - Probably should be higher
27. Roddy White - Like a Timex.
28. Percy Harvin - It's all where you take the chance...
29. Vincent Jackson - Underrated WR. PPR hurts him here.
30. DeMarco Murray - Would like to see him play 16 games.
31. LeVeon Bell - Assuming he becomes the PIT workhorse.
32. Jimmy Graham - Good but not worth his ADP. TE is deep.
33. Rob Gronkowski - If he shows up Game 1 he passes Graham.
34. Tom Brady - Seems to be dinking and dunking a lot.
35. Cam Newton - Must run in TDs to retain this value.
36. Darren Sproles - Gets PPR points when he plays. Always.
37. David Wilson - Allegedly will be the workhorse. We'll see.
38. Darren McFadden - Will be given another chance.
39. Larry Fitzgerald - Could be in decline mode...
40. Jordy Nelson - A slight risk, but big possible rewards.
41. Eric Decker - A steal here to me, and could be #1 in DEN.
42. BenJarvus Green-Ellis - If he caught passes would be higher.
43. Russell Wilson - A winner and stats from 2012 will rise.
44. Colin Kaepernick - Running ability a plus.
45. Matt Ryan - Virtual tie with Kaepernick.
46. Tony Gonzalez - Safest TE pick to me.
47. Jason Witten - 80 balls, maybe a few TDs too.
48. Reggie Bush - They'll feed him. LeShoure and Bell?
49. Lamar Miller - Give him a shot here. Beware of Gilly!
50. Danny Amendola - a PPR asset anywhere he goes.
51. Tony Romo - Free to fling + little run game = POINTS.
52. Robert Griffin - Steal him as your QB2 and tick somebody off.
53. Andrew Luck - Same here. Could be a steal here.
54. Aaron Hernandez - If no Gronk, he goes up.
55. Danario Alexander - Big plays, not much PPR.
56. Cecil Shorts - Like Steve Smith Jr. Needs to fight somebody.
57. Stevie Johnson - 80 balls easy even if you threw to him.
58. Eddie Lacey - Taking a gamble here. He can play.
59. Montee Ball - Many mouths to feed in the Munchie State.
60. Chris Ivory - Assuming he starts and makes it through camp.
61. Ryan Matthews - If you need a guy why not. It's a new day.
62. Wes Welker - Older, and see Bronco player comments above.
63. Anquin Boldin - Could get Crabtree's stats.
64. Steve Smith - Lack of TDs is a concern.
65. Matthew Stafford - May have topped out in 2011.
66. Torrey Smith - Safe starter. Could make a leap.
67. Rashard Mendenhall - If you need a RB. Think handcuff.
68. Zac Stacy - Just a good solid runner will get time.
69. Pierre Garcon - Well they do call it FOOT ball.
70. Dwayne Bowe - Good WR, needs the ball in his hands.
71. Mike Wallace - First of two big money grabs. Will play.
72. Greg Jennings - Second of two money grabs. Will play.
73. Lance Moore - Quietly a solid WR.
74. James Jones - Can he repeat 2012 success?
75. Mark Ingram - Can he catch anything with Sproles there?
76. Ahmad Bradshaw - He will surface and he will play some games.
77. Victor Cruz - The only Giant WR I want in 2013 is Randle
78. TY Hilton - With more balls coming his way watch out.
79. Mike Williams - Now a fine WR, better QB play and he's a WR2.
80. DeSean Jackson - If he had head on straight had WR1 talent.
81. DeAndre Hopkins - I like him this year. Schaub up to it?
82. Miles Austin - 'Boys will throw it a bunch. Check his health.
83. Antonio Brown - Solid, won't win you any games by himself.
84. Tavon Austin - Worth a shot at this point. But that offense..
85. Hakeem Nicks - I'll let you take him 40 picks early.
86. Joe Flacco - If his confidence stays up sky's the limit.
87. Eli Manning - Best QB left if you still need one.
88. Kenny Britt - Still top TD option in TEN. Playmaker.
89. Denarius Moore - See Britt comment, but for OAK.
90. Josh Gordon - Suspension + CLE offense = downgrade.
91. Jeremy Maclin - Maclin to me means mediocity.
92. DeAngelo Williams - Pundits asking for wrong guy's release..
93. Ben Roethlisberger - Biggest wildcard at QB in 2013.
94. Greg Olsen - Begin TE run here. Look at his numbers.
95. Kyle Rudolph - Long as Ponder is QB, Rudy is an option.
96. Vernon Davis - Always drafted too high. Inconsistency.
97. Bryce Brown - Freak RB, needs discipline then look out.
98. Andre Brown - Utilization is in question right now.
99. Andy Dalton - Pivotal season for a fiery competitor.
100. Carson Palmer - A comeback season and Luck 2012 stats.
101. Shane Vereen - You just never know.
102. Mikel LeShoure - Must stay healthy but will play.
103. Aaron Dobson - Probably Lloyd 2012 numbers. He can catch.
104. Owen Daniels - Solid when healthy. Scahub looks his way.
105. Sidney Rice - Technically still #1 WR in SEA.
106. Cordarelle Patterson - The new Harvin in Minnesota.
107. Giovanni Bernard - Change of pace only?
108. Stepfan Taylor - Will win this job eventually.
109. Rueben Randle - You'll let me have him here.
110. Fred Jackson - Reliable vet still knows the game well.
111. Antonio Gates - Too much value to pass at this point.
112. Heath Miller - Recovery questions only have him this low.
113. Jeremy Kerley - Best WR option in green NY.
114. Vick Ballard - Talk about Bradshaw drops him right now.
115. Greg Little - Has all the tools, worry about the worker.
116. Dennis Pitta - Expect Dickson to dig in to his production.
117. Brandon Myers - Giants like the TE near the red zone.
118. Malcolm Floyd - Again, look at his numbers with Rivers.
119. Jordan Cameron - New TEs will come forward in 2013.
120. Rob Housler - Has a golden opportunity to make a huge leap.
(tie)Chris Givens - Tough to build with new toys added.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC South

AFC South

Houston Texans: A strong team got even stronger through a pretty good draft. As a team, though, you have to question what it will take to make the next step, a leap forward many have predicted the last three years. They need to go from contender to Super Bowl. This draft was so good you could make the argument that they now have all the pieces and this is the year. Doubts still linger, though. Can Matt Schaub win the big ones, under pressure? Is the back end of that defense shored up enough to prevent late comebacks by Texan opponents? Can they find somebody to take at least some pressure off of Andre Johnson?

DeAndre Hopkins, the team's first pick, has the attitude and second gear (both during a play and through a game) to be a difference maker, and is a perfect downfield threat as Andre Johnson now  becomes more of a possession receiver, albeit a dandy one. With Owen Daniels in the middle this offense is now locked and loaded. Can Schaub deliver the football, and is Kubiak aggressive enough to speed up the tempo? DJ Swearinger, I swear (as does he), will be an impact player at the NFL level. Both these first picks reflect aggressive attitudes, which is exactly what this team needs, more JJ Wattishness. But again, will the head coach unleash the fury that this team could be? This may be his last chance so he should come out swinging. Third selection Brennan Williams will help the OL. Sam Montogomery was a steal at pick #95, if he can stay focused that Texans DL could be monstrously disruptive. Trevardo Williams ensures depth on the edge. I liked this draft except for the Round 6 picks, as I believe there was better value to be had from a talent perspective, which is what you're looking for in late round fliers. Grade: A-

Fantasy Implications: Hopkins should win the Houston #2 WR job. Historically, that status has not been a very lucrative fantasy goldmine, however, it is arguable that the Texans have never had anyone of the caliber of The Cannibal at WR #2. This, coupled with the attention still given Johnson, makes Hopkins someone very draftable, but proceed with caution. Remember he still has to beat out last year's draftees. In the best case scenario for Hopkins, he becomes the next Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Coming into this draft, up-and-coming Colts had a few problem spots to address, especially on the interior of the offensive line. They also needed an upgrade over departed Dwight Freeney, to put some more pressure on the passer and help out in run situations. The secondary is also a work in progress. It should be noted that the Colts had been active in free agency in the months prior to the draft, signing journeymen center Samson Satele, guard Donald Thomas, and tackle Gosder Cherilus, among others, to try and fortify that line for Andrew Luck. On defense, the offseason brought Aubrayo Franklin, Vontae Davis, and LaRon Landry. To say that the Colts defense will have a different look in 2013 is an understatement. All of these defenders, and probably all the linemen too, will start for the team. In a way, the Colts used free agency as a draft, especially considering the players they picked up.

As for the draft itself, they got a raw but possible difference maker at DE by picking Bjorn Woerner. Scouts were all over the place on this kid, but he is relatively new to the game, yet is aware of many of its nuances. It also helps that he has played with some of the best players in the country, and against some of the best in all the land. He will start right away, soon getting more playing time than Ricky Jean-Francois, and definitely part of any rotation. They simply need him to play, don't be surprised if they move him, or someone else around, to keep him on the field all three downs. Hugh Thornton plays with heart and motor but was a bit of a reach with the team's 3rd Round pick. Khaled Holmes, selected in Round 4, is a much better pick, but both these linemen are versatile and should settle in somewhere in short order. Montori Hughes was an excellent value pick in Round 5. Yes, the team went directly for needs, ignoring more talented players at other spots, and apparently confident that Davis and  Landry have fixed the leaky secondary. But they were solid picks in any case, showing an attempt to fortify the toughest spots to fill. If you don't value DBs very highly....Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Andrew Luck's value goes up. He was awful good last year. Considering he had no time to throw the ball on too many occasions, usually due to unacceptable pressure directly up the middle (the hole still left behind by Jeff Saturday), if these draft picks, and free agents, can help seal those seams just a second longer, Luck becomes one of the top five fantasy QBs in 2013, regardless of how many games the Colts win or lose, bet on it. Other than that, Kerwynn Williams has some talent, but he is raw and still learning the position, it will take a lot for him to unseat Donald Brown as Vick Ballard's backup. Williams might make Delone Carter and Deji Karim expendable, though.

Tennessee Titans: Another team with many positions of need is the Tennessee Titans. It is true, as many have already said, that problems up front on the line, lack of pressure on the QB, bad tackling, the lack of leadership on both sides of the ball, and many similar problems exist on this team, and it will indeed take more than this draft to deal with all of them and make the Titans a contender. Yet, I like the fact that this team is taking its lumps while building from the inside-out, that is, by trying to strengthen the trenches first. In fact this is the Titans' really main deficiency. Their offense is decent even with Locker or Fitzpatrick behind center, and their skill position players are pretty darned good. The defense needs a linebacker or two and some DB help, but all in all it caused quite a few turnovers last year, and had its moments.

The Tennessee draft, with the exception of the choice of WR Justin Hunter in Round 2, tried to directly address the team's starting lineup needs. Hunter was a luxury pick, perhaps Kenny Britt insurance. I like the potential, but not with other more pressing needs. Chance Warmack will start in short time and try and help give Fitzpatrick more than 2.4 seconds to throw. He was a solid pick at #10, slightly higher than he should have been selected, but the Titans needed him, and Munchak, perhaps justifiably, will always defer to linemen in a push. Bidi Wreh-Wilson will get playing time also, there is no telling yet how much. He, too, was selected slightly higher that he should have been, again because of need, but also because of the run on DBs. Their second Round 3 pick, and their picks in Rounds 4 and 5, are where the Titans flexed their draft acumen. Zaviar Gooden will make a veteran expendable at LB, as will Brian Schwenke on the OL. Lavar Edwards, a DE/LB tweener, is a poor man's Dion Jordan, a steal in the 5th Round, and a starter by season's end. Grade: B, would be a solid A had they grabbed a pass rusher instead of Hunter.

Fantasy Implications: Hunter, who will be at least a WR #3 on this team.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will be new-look in more ways than one in 2013. One thing is for certain. The draft has come and gone and still the starting QB job will come down Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, as the Jags didn't even point in the general direction of a signal caller. Interesting facts about Blaine Gabbert have recently come to light, such as which mostly say that his sub-par play so far has been more due to the inefficiency of his offensive line than his accuracy and decision-making. But time to throw is not all about the line. Little sidesteps and movements while in the pocket, which actually open up the pocket and give the blockers time, were absent from Gabbert's game. When he got thrown off his reads, his movements and decisions were routinely the wrong ones. His peripheral vision is Kevin Kolb-like, and very minimal. He locks in on his intended receivers, leading not only to incompletions and interceptions, but also to clues picked up on by all the defenders. This, in turn, makes it difficult to sustain a block. All this to say the Jags will struggle again under Gabbert, and I am not even sure his teammates are on board. I fully expect to see Henne play before the halfway point of the season, for the simple reason that he has better pocket presence and awareness.

So, the big story being the Jaguars NOT choosing a QB, what did they do with their eight picks? Luke Joeckel is a good pick no matter what, they almost had to take him. John Cyprien could turn out to be the top DB in this entire draft class, unheralded a bit being from a smaller school, but a machine in the defensive backfield and a playmaker as well, He might need a bit of help with learning coverage schemes, but he has the heart and the tools to pay big dividends for the Jaguars quickly. Dwayne Gratz will also contribute immediately, will struggle a bit, but will play anyway. Ace Sanders will probably play special teams or return kicks, but the WR chosen one pick later, Denard Robinson, could be opposite Cecil Shorts sooner than later, and was probably a better selection. Obviously Jacksonville didn't need two WRs, but rightfully they snagged an available Robinson. I like Josh Evans, too, and consider him a steal in Round 6. Grade: A, and probably wise to wait until 2014 to bring in a rookie QB.

Fantasy Implications: Sanders and Robinson could be factors, especially Robinson. He has Percy Harvin-like versatility. Considering Justin Blackmon's problems, Massaquoi's ineffectiveness, and Shipley's slowing down and aging, by necessity alone either one or the other could contribute quickly. Just remember who is throwing the ball. The fortunes of the Jaguars WRs will rise as soon as Henne gets the starting job.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC West

AFC West

Denver Broncos: The immediate contributions by the Broncos' first two picks will define this draft. Sylvester Williams was a good grab that should help ease the pain of realizing Elvis has left the building. They also, in my opinion, took the co-best RB (1A with LeVeon Bell) available in this draft by selecting Monte Ball. The fact that these picks were made late in both Rounds 1 and 2 makes them even better choices.

With the exception of Quanterus Smith, who might surprise everyone and be on the field as much as Sly Williams in 2013, the rest of the Broncos' draft is no better than average. They could have had Kayvon Webster in the 5th round, for example. Zac Dysert is an intriguing pickup, he is fully able to win the backup job to Manning, just don't expect Peyton to be a willing mentor. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: Dysert, no matter what he does, will never see the field as long as Manning is upright. But keep an eye on him. The position to watch here is at RB, where Monte Ball has the skills to be a good full-time runner for this team. He is a natural workhorse back not unlike Knowshon Moreno was, only with better durability. That same Moreno, as well as (currently) Willis McGahee, and Ronnie Hillman, are all that stand in the way of Ball and a full-time job. I don't think the Broncos drafted Ball in Round 2 to play special teams, return kicks, or sit and learn. I believe they will play him, the question is, who else will get carries besides Ball? If I had to gamble now, I say they keep all four backs, unless they can trade one of the other three for a pick. Hillman is undraftable in fantasy in 2013 regardless of what happens, he is thought of by the team as at best a change-of-pace guy. Moreno is a good back, always has been, but has struggled to adjust to coming off the field in the pros; he is used to playing every down, and needs to get warmed up to be most effective, in fact I believe this going from full-time to part-time has contributed to his injury problems, and you see how much better he played when given the opportunity to be a three-down back last season. McGahee might have some left in the tank, but that remains to be seen, he was wearing down before last year's injuries and he could also be released. If I ran the team I trade or release McGahee OR Hillman, ride Moreno and groom Ball for the role. Definitely keep an eye on how this shakes out. Tavarres King is a decent WR, but there would have to be an injury for him to see much game time. He could return kicks, though.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs could have used their top position to acquire a few strategic pieces in the draft. This team's roster is talented and much better than last year's record would indicate. Drafting left tackle Eric Fisher number one overall is a case in point. They already had (and as of today still have) a good starting left tackle in Branden Albert, yet the team drafted as number one overall a starting left tackle anyway. Apparently owner and staff felt there were no positions of greater need, that's how talented is the roster.

In fact, over-estimating the talent of the players on this roster may have played a part in the Chiefs' very pedestrian draft. Kelce at TE is ignoring greater needs but is a decent pick in Round 3, Knile Davis is overrated at RB and probably could have been had two rounds later, Sanders Commings and Nico Johnson could find reserve spots, but nothing stands out as addressing needs. In fact, undrafted QB Tyler Bray could turn out to be the only gem, other than Fisher, in the long run. Moeaki and Fasano make the Travis Kelce selection even more of a head scratcher, it's quite possible they release Moeaki, unless Andy Reid intends to incorporate some two-TE offense. The Chiefs should have taken a WR early, in the spot they chose Kelce. Bowe and Avery are fine at WR, but behind them there is only unproven and so far unsuccessful depth, and nobody that scares you downfield. It was a position of greater need. A solid backup for Dontari Poe, a speedy edge rusher, all would have been better choices for this team. They got a great lineman, one they really didn't need, and that's about it. Grade: D

Fantasy Implications: Kelce is it. We know what Fasano and Moeaki can do. Kelce comes highly regarded, often compared to Rob Gronkowski in both playing style and off-field antics, and does show some skills. I bet he sees the field a lot and relegates Moeaki to strictly blocking duties. He's worth a late round grab as a TE2, even in a TE1 slot if he shows in preseason that he can take the job. Alex Smith and Reid both like throwing to the TE.

San Diego Chargers: Going into this draft the Bolts knew they had lots of holes to fill. The OL was a mess, LB and DB slots also needed upgrades, Matthews isn't getting the job done at RB and has aging Ronnie Brown behind him, Rivers is showing signs of decline, and there is still nobody at TE to give Gates' old legs a rest. The team took DJ Fluker with their first pick, essentially the best available tackle, with plenty of beef and motor but some character concerns. They took another chance on character by grabbing Te'o in Round 2, then snagged a good WR in Keenan Allen in Round 3. Their picks in Rounds 5 and 6, though, really make this draft better.

The Chargers should have traded up and landed one of the big two if they wanted a tackle. They also should be more aggressive in the free agent talks with available linemen. Non-aggressive would be a good way to describe this team's approach to this draft in general. Fluker will start right away, with all the goods and bads in place, and Te'o will play all three downs in San Diego because he is needed all three downs. Keenan Allen will compete with Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown for receptions after Danario Alexander and Gates get theirs. In the Williamses, though, Tourek and Steve, the Chargers found solid underrated value and both those players will not only make the 2013 San Diego squad, but also win starting roles. Steve Williams is small but reminds you of Brent Grimes with his tenacity and ball skills, and Tourek could very well be this year's Jason Pierre-Paul. Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Brad Sorensen, their last pick, could stick as Rivers' backup, but is no fantasy factor otherwise. Keenan Allen is the only other possibility. My guess is the team uses him to return kicks at first, then he eventually wins the 3rd receiver job.

Oakland Raiders: Arguably no team had more holes to fill coming into this draft than Da Raidas. Years of overpaying mediocre talent has taken its toll on this team. While the late Al Davis usually is cited as the cause, it must be remembered that Davis gave his coaches and GMs much respect and control over the team. He was in this way no more intrusive than Jerry Jones, or even Mr. Khan. It is, rather, the absence of talented leadership by players on the field that has promoted a losing, even giving-up attitude in Oakland the past few years. It seems this team has no leaders. Going into the draft, that should have been their priority. DJ Hayden, their first selection, could fill that role.  Menelik Watson is a nice pickup for the OL, but they did not do enough to grab value with their many late picks.

Watson will start on the line, and Hayden will start as well. Tyler Wilson could be the second Wilson to unseat a projected-to-start Matt Flynn, and Sio Moore should find his way into a starting LB role in this defense. But there are big question marks around all the other Raiders 2013 draft picks. They took two TEs in Kasa and Rivera, but they are both average propects on par with several current NFL free agents. They should have traded up to grab Kelce or Escobar if they wanted a TE, although they let a decent one go in Brandon Myers. Grade: C-

Fantasy Implications: Well it does get interesting from this perspective. As I have said, Tyler Wilson could show enough to sit Matt Flynn yet again and become the new staring Raiders QB. Latavius Murray is a RB selection to keep in your back pocket. He has a special skill set and has all the tools to win the lucrative backup job to Darren McFadden and, considering his competition, should do so easily. Keep an eye on the TE duo, too. David Ausberry should lose his starting job to one of them.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC East

The NFL draft's completion means the new season is underway. Here at the URFL, it means we will begin setting up our 2013 fantasy football leagues in just a few weeks. For fantasy franchise owners, the post-draft is a good time to look at the impact drafted players will have on their real world teams and, consequently, their fantasy point-producing possibilities. In this post I take a look at the AFC East team drafts, give each of them a grade, and then assess any projected fantasy impact.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots: The Pats did not get to pick until the 20th selection in Round 2, choosing to trade down and stockpile later picks. Apparently coach Belicheck and his staff found the talent just as good deeper into the draft. Still, you have to question this whole draft, not Coach's ability to spot talent, but rather when he chose to take the players he did. Most, if not all of them, could have been had later than when they were selected, and in this writer's opinion, missing out on any of them would not have been so devastating at all.

Had they retained their first round pick, New England could have had Ogletree, Carradine, Hankins, or Short. Instead they selected Jamie Collins in Round 2, a smart player who could start right away, but who was not anywhere near the value of those other defenders. Dobson is an OK receiver but, again, could have been had probably two rounds later, and Patterson would have been there for them in Round 1, too, had they chosen to go that route. Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon are wildcards and actually help this draft's grade because they could compete for jobs immediately, despite being lesser-known players. On those two we have to trust the Coach, but for now we can only grade what we see. GRADE: C-

Fantasy Implications: Dobson and Boyce have a chance at an opportunity and the situation is worth keeping an eye on, but other than that, don't expect any new fantasy producers up near Boston, at least via this draft.

2. Miami Dolphins: Under heavy fire and gasping for air, in Miami it is GM Ireland that everyone talks about, and the talk has not been good. Coach Philbin, it seems, has not yet been allocated any responsibility for any moves prior to last season. This year, though, Philbin will have to at least begin to bear some brunt of the responsibility. This draft, for instance, must include his impetus somewhere along the line. Regardless, the 'Phins were aggressive in this draft, trading up to grab Dion Jordan, then making a solid hit with Jamar Taylor in the 2nd. Clearly their "need" was playmaking defensive players, and they got two of the best in this draft.

Had Miami stayed put they would have certainly missed out on Jordan, but could have had Star Lotulelei, Sharif Floyd, Bjorn Woerner, Datone Jones, or even Ogletree. Remember Menelik Watson was taken by the Raiders with the pick they got from Miami, so theoretically they could have had any of those impact defenders, plus a slightly better lineman than Dallas Thomas. But it's hard to criticize this draft. Jordan was picked to play and he will start. Knowing Miami, Taylor will start right away also, and my bet would be Thomas starts some games, if not all of them. Will Davis is even money to win a job, at least as an extra nickel back. Even Gillislee, I predict, will get playing time. So, from that perspective, this draft is a success. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: You should watch the defense early in camp and in preseason because, for all the hooplah, they could be either better or worse than last year. Caleb Sturgis, the first kicker chosen in the draft, and one of three Gators taken by Miami in the late rounds, will be given every chance to win the job from the Carpenter, and my guess is he succeeds; those missed kicks by Carpenter last year stung. I am also supposing that Gillislee wins the backup role to Lamar Miller, and will supplant him if Miller struggles. One thing is for sure, Miami's backfield just got quicker. Forgetting for a minute about the questions at left tackle, one must first ask whether Tannehill is the answer. In many ways this team will go in 2013 as goes Tannehill.

3. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo does the bluff not only on football pundits but also on Ryan Nassib. We can only scantly imagine how he felt as Goddell went to the podium and said "...the Buffalo Bills select quarterback...EJ Manuel." All I'm hearing is a drain sound...Anyway, Buffalo's draft has to begin and end with Manuel. There are many questions we could ask here. Yes, the trade down was beneficial, but let's remember which slot they held, that same slot with which the Rams took Austin.

Could Manuel have been available in Round 2? I say, yes he could have been. Robert Woods is a fine receiver, and will help the Bills, but a fast slot man to complement Stevie would have been even better. Alonso is a high-motor guy I like to succeed in the NFL, he will start for the Bills, and speedster Marquise Goodwin could put TJ Graham's job in jeopardy as the third receiver. All in all Buffalo grabbed some nice players, but Manuel that early is a head scratcher, he probably could have been had in Round 3. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: A whole bunch. Kolb might best Manuel in accuracy but that's about it. I fully expect Manuel to win this QB job outright in camp, and the Bills will be dramatically improved because of the move. He will be ranked as a draftable QB somewhere around Jay Cutler range, and I will have him ahead of Cutler, Freeman, Locker, Tannehill, and many other known commodities. As for the other receivers, what they do in this west-cost offense will depend on the maturation of Manuel. If indeed he picks up the system quickly, as everyone seems to think he can do, all four of the receivers - Woods, Goodwin, Stevie, and Graham - must be put on the fantasy radar. If I had to choose today, I would draft Stevie, then Woods, and maybe take a late flier on Goodwin. Also expect rookie Dustin Hopkins, Manuel's fellow Nole, to win the Bills' kicking job.

4. New York Jets: The Jets made little noise in the draft, choosing to address needs with their picks, and also lucking out by grabbing their new starting QB - in Round 3. Brian Winters is a so-so lineman who will make the team but probably not the starting lineup, but the lineman to watch here is 5th rounder Oday Aboushi. He is big, very smart, and still learning the fine points of his craft. I think you will see the coaches take to him and make him into a starter by midseason.

Sheldon Richardson has the talent to be considered the steal of the draft at pick #13. While I think Dee Milliner was drafted too high, I think the Richardson pick does a flip-flop to correct the error. Really, it's LBs the Jets need, and they didn't so much as sniff one. Still, something had to be sacrificed. If I did their draft, I would have taken Ogletree, follwing it up with Richardson and then a DB like Trufant or Amerson. Yet, they added at least three starters, likely four, and let's not forget a Geno Smith, projected to go in Round 1 in a "QB light" draft, scooped up in Round 3. If Milliner succeeds, this draft is an A+. If he struggles, as I expect, A- anyway.

Fantasy Implications: Geno Smith has his faults, but he will be given the job as soon as Sanchez becomes, well, Sanchez-like. I would not bet the farm that Smith is the opening week starter, at least not yet, but he should see the field before the midway point of the season. If he wins the job he becomes very draftable in fantasy. Other than that, no new playmakers came to the Jets via the draft, but Chris Ivory, acquired via trade, suddenly complicates the backfield situation even more. Keep an eye out there.

Next time, the AFC West.

NFL SUPER BOWL PREVIEW And NFL CHAMPIONSHIPS RECAP

Well once again, to my chagrin, I hit the 50/50 mark for guessing outcomes, this time with a split decision on my NFC and AFC Championship Games predictions. Looks like it's off to work again, as at this rate I'll never make a living gambling. Nevertheless, I trod on, this time to impress you yet again with a very real 50% chance of victory. Remember to cut me in on your winnings...

Before every Super Bowl we are asked the question whether the teams playing the games are the ones which "should" be there. For the next week and a half you're going to hear lots of times about teams "getting hot at the right time" and "catching breaks" or being "the healthiest they've been all season." What holds more true still is that football is a game of inches, that is the smallest accounted-for distance on a 100 yard football field. Between getting first downs and not, or getting in the end zone or not, or as we have seen many times this season, making the field goal or not (aka Mason "Bing" Crosby, or David "Ding" Akers") is a matter of inches, sometimes even an inch or less. A missed third-and-1, even by one inch, doesn't look like it can make much difference, but in the end it is the accumulation of these misses that cost a team the game. This is why what seems like parity is really a result of the changing nature of the game. Who will win any game now is only determined maybe 50% by the actual performances of the players on the field. The rest results from coaching decisions, personnel packages, lineup configurations, game plans, and other things players do not control. The game is even time-controlled by more than the clock, as time outs are adjusted in length, and official time outs called, to account for broadcasting requirements.

What can a fantasy football player glean from all this? Well, keep in mind that, probably for the worse but for better or worse, we are in the Age Of Specialization. Whereas in the past players put it all out on the field every play, some starters not even getting warmed up until the 2nd quarter and playing until they were too gassed to play any more, at which point the backups came in, today things are very different. Rotation of players to keep them "fresh" is becoming as commonplace as formations which change nearly every play, perhaps - as I have said before - giving more away about the play they plan to run instead of disguising it. The rotation of players can have the same effect. I can tell you this, nether I nor anyone I know who has played the game, one of these men having played on the pro level and several into college, would ever want to come out of a football game. Adrenaline doesn't come on and off like that, you can't get "into" the game like that. But it is a future we must anticipate, as sure to become more commonplace as the twelve men that now do the job of one head coach. We must change our strategy to reflect this state of affairs.

How will I personally do it? Well, until it becomes an every down thing for every skill position player, a fantasy player's first priority would seem to be finding out which of these NFL players are going to be on the field the most. Sure, "playing time" has always been a factor when drafting fantasy teams, and a big one at that. But from team to team now, during the transition to full-blown timeshares at every ball-carrying spot except QB, there will be dramatic differences in how teams will use their personnel. For every Calvin Johnson taking 90% of the snaps there will be several Josh Gordons seeing 50% of them. Determining who will be Calvins and who Joshes will be the fantasy player's top priority.

On the other hand, GIVEN that most NFL players utilized by fantasy gamers will be part-timers anyway, one cannot neglect the need to identify the most skilled players, that is, those who will make for the most difference when they are on the field. Discerning between, say, Donnie Avery and TY Hilton for 2013, may require one forget at this point the "playing time" effect and instead go for the "big play" possibility.

All in all, the luck factor becomes more and more real as fantasy rolls on. Given all the variables, soon it will become in fantasy as office pools have become, something anyone can play, using defaults or computer settings and/or recommendations, and still stand a chance to win. Sure, us students of the game might have a little advantage, but just reflect on your own past season's successes and failures, and look at the rosters of your teams. My guess is that, more often than not, it was NOT your best rosters that won you your championships, and that some of your best-drafted teams won diddly.

So maybe it's not all that bad. Considering the number of teams I've played, and the number of Championships I've brought home, maybe I'd be the kind to benefit from a little more emphasis on luck...and maybe you would be too.

THE SUPER BOWL

All this to give you my prediction for the Super Bowl. I said last week that whoever won the NFC Championship game would have a hard time beating the winner of the AFC game, and I am going to stay with that prediction. Baltimore will win for Ray Lewis, and though I am not a big fan of his character, and I have a lot of questions about how genuine some of the things he says and does are, he is a natural born motivator and he knows how to play the game of football. The 49ers came up big last week with their backs to the wall, but they didn't impress me much. The man here, though, is still Frank Gore, who commands a LOT of defensive attention when he is on the field, and he still plays like a kid. Where all the talk is about "win one for Frank" I have no idea, but I would not be surprised if San Francisco lost this game and Gore still got the MVP, crazy as that sounds. If Baltimore's defense forgets about Frank Gore in their scurry to prepare for Kaepernick, that would be a big mistake. Regardless, I say BALTIMORE 31 San Francisco 28.