2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC South

AFC South

Houston Texans: A strong team got even stronger through a pretty good draft. As a team, though, you have to question what it will take to make the next step, a leap forward many have predicted the last three years. They need to go from contender to Super Bowl. This draft was so good you could make the argument that they now have all the pieces and this is the year. Doubts still linger, though. Can Matt Schaub win the big ones, under pressure? Is the back end of that defense shored up enough to prevent late comebacks by Texan opponents? Can they find somebody to take at least some pressure off of Andre Johnson?

DeAndre Hopkins, the team's first pick, has the attitude and second gear (both during a play and through a game) to be a difference maker, and is a perfect downfield threat as Andre Johnson now  becomes more of a possession receiver, albeit a dandy one. With Owen Daniels in the middle this offense is now locked and loaded. Can Schaub deliver the football, and is Kubiak aggressive enough to speed up the tempo? DJ Swearinger, I swear (as does he), will be an impact player at the NFL level. Both these first picks reflect aggressive attitudes, which is exactly what this team needs, more JJ Wattishness. But again, will the head coach unleash the fury that this team could be? This may be his last chance so he should come out swinging. Third selection Brennan Williams will help the OL. Sam Montogomery was a steal at pick #95, if he can stay focused that Texans DL could be monstrously disruptive. Trevardo Williams ensures depth on the edge. I liked this draft except for the Round 6 picks, as I believe there was better value to be had from a talent perspective, which is what you're looking for in late round fliers. Grade: A-

Fantasy Implications: Hopkins should win the Houston #2 WR job. Historically, that status has not been a very lucrative fantasy goldmine, however, it is arguable that the Texans have never had anyone of the caliber of The Cannibal at WR #2. This, coupled with the attention still given Johnson, makes Hopkins someone very draftable, but proceed with caution. Remember he still has to beat out last year's draftees. In the best case scenario for Hopkins, he becomes the next Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Coming into this draft, up-and-coming Colts had a few problem spots to address, especially on the interior of the offensive line. They also needed an upgrade over departed Dwight Freeney, to put some more pressure on the passer and help out in run situations. The secondary is also a work in progress. It should be noted that the Colts had been active in free agency in the months prior to the draft, signing journeymen center Samson Satele, guard Donald Thomas, and tackle Gosder Cherilus, among others, to try and fortify that line for Andrew Luck. On defense, the offseason brought Aubrayo Franklin, Vontae Davis, and LaRon Landry. To say that the Colts defense will have a different look in 2013 is an understatement. All of these defenders, and probably all the linemen too, will start for the team. In a way, the Colts used free agency as a draft, especially considering the players they picked up.

As for the draft itself, they got a raw but possible difference maker at DE by picking Bjorn Woerner. Scouts were all over the place on this kid, but he is relatively new to the game, yet is aware of many of its nuances. It also helps that he has played with some of the best players in the country, and against some of the best in all the land. He will start right away, soon getting more playing time than Ricky Jean-Francois, and definitely part of any rotation. They simply need him to play, don't be surprised if they move him, or someone else around, to keep him on the field all three downs. Hugh Thornton plays with heart and motor but was a bit of a reach with the team's 3rd Round pick. Khaled Holmes, selected in Round 4, is a much better pick, but both these linemen are versatile and should settle in somewhere in short order. Montori Hughes was an excellent value pick in Round 5. Yes, the team went directly for needs, ignoring more talented players at other spots, and apparently confident that Davis and  Landry have fixed the leaky secondary. But they were solid picks in any case, showing an attempt to fortify the toughest spots to fill. If you don't value DBs very highly....Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Andrew Luck's value goes up. He was awful good last year. Considering he had no time to throw the ball on too many occasions, usually due to unacceptable pressure directly up the middle (the hole still left behind by Jeff Saturday), if these draft picks, and free agents, can help seal those seams just a second longer, Luck becomes one of the top five fantasy QBs in 2013, regardless of how many games the Colts win or lose, bet on it. Other than that, Kerwynn Williams has some talent, but he is raw and still learning the position, it will take a lot for him to unseat Donald Brown as Vick Ballard's backup. Williams might make Delone Carter and Deji Karim expendable, though.

Tennessee Titans: Another team with many positions of need is the Tennessee Titans. It is true, as many have already said, that problems up front on the line, lack of pressure on the QB, bad tackling, the lack of leadership on both sides of the ball, and many similar problems exist on this team, and it will indeed take more than this draft to deal with all of them and make the Titans a contender. Yet, I like the fact that this team is taking its lumps while building from the inside-out, that is, by trying to strengthen the trenches first. In fact this is the Titans' really main deficiency. Their offense is decent even with Locker or Fitzpatrick behind center, and their skill position players are pretty darned good. The defense needs a linebacker or two and some DB help, but all in all it caused quite a few turnovers last year, and had its moments.

The Tennessee draft, with the exception of the choice of WR Justin Hunter in Round 2, tried to directly address the team's starting lineup needs. Hunter was a luxury pick, perhaps Kenny Britt insurance. I like the potential, but not with other more pressing needs. Chance Warmack will start in short time and try and help give Fitzpatrick more than 2.4 seconds to throw. He was a solid pick at #10, slightly higher than he should have been selected, but the Titans needed him, and Munchak, perhaps justifiably, will always defer to linemen in a push. Bidi Wreh-Wilson will get playing time also, there is no telling yet how much. He, too, was selected slightly higher that he should have been, again because of need, but also because of the run on DBs. Their second Round 3 pick, and their picks in Rounds 4 and 5, are where the Titans flexed their draft acumen. Zaviar Gooden will make a veteran expendable at LB, as will Brian Schwenke on the OL. Lavar Edwards, a DE/LB tweener, is a poor man's Dion Jordan, a steal in the 5th Round, and a starter by season's end. Grade: B, would be a solid A had they grabbed a pass rusher instead of Hunter.

Fantasy Implications: Hunter, who will be at least a WR #3 on this team.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will be new-look in more ways than one in 2013. One thing is for certain. The draft has come and gone and still the starting QB job will come down Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, as the Jags didn't even point in the general direction of a signal caller. Interesting facts about Blaine Gabbert have recently come to light, such as which mostly say that his sub-par play so far has been more due to the inefficiency of his offensive line than his accuracy and decision-making. But time to throw is not all about the line. Little sidesteps and movements while in the pocket, which actually open up the pocket and give the blockers time, were absent from Gabbert's game. When he got thrown off his reads, his movements and decisions were routinely the wrong ones. His peripheral vision is Kevin Kolb-like, and very minimal. He locks in on his intended receivers, leading not only to incompletions and interceptions, but also to clues picked up on by all the defenders. This, in turn, makes it difficult to sustain a block. All this to say the Jags will struggle again under Gabbert, and I am not even sure his teammates are on board. I fully expect to see Henne play before the halfway point of the season, for the simple reason that he has better pocket presence and awareness.

So, the big story being the Jaguars NOT choosing a QB, what did they do with their eight picks? Luke Joeckel is a good pick no matter what, they almost had to take him. John Cyprien could turn out to be the top DB in this entire draft class, unheralded a bit being from a smaller school, but a machine in the defensive backfield and a playmaker as well, He might need a bit of help with learning coverage schemes, but he has the heart and the tools to pay big dividends for the Jaguars quickly. Dwayne Gratz will also contribute immediately, will struggle a bit, but will play anyway. Ace Sanders will probably play special teams or return kicks, but the WR chosen one pick later, Denard Robinson, could be opposite Cecil Shorts sooner than later, and was probably a better selection. Obviously Jacksonville didn't need two WRs, but rightfully they snagged an available Robinson. I like Josh Evans, too, and consider him a steal in Round 6. Grade: A, and probably wise to wait until 2014 to bring in a rookie QB.

Fantasy Implications: Sanders and Robinson could be factors, especially Robinson. He has Percy Harvin-like versatility. Considering Justin Blackmon's problems, Massaquoi's ineffectiveness, and Shipley's slowing down and aging, by necessity alone either one or the other could contribute quickly. Just remember who is throwing the ball. The fortunes of the Jaguars WRs will rise as soon as Henne gets the starting job.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC North

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens wasted no time in replenishing their depleted defense. With the luxury of an adequately stocked offense, this team used their selections expertly to maximize their draft and take players who can help immediately. Matt Elam, with the possible exception of Kenny Vaccaro, was the best safety in the draft, and Arthur Brown, grabbed in Round 2, will start immediately at linebacker. Brandon Williams, who has gone from cleaning Port-O-Lets to nose tackle in the NFL, can be considered a steal at Pick #94 in the third round and, with Brown, can help ease the pain of losing Kruger. Even tackles Ricky Wagner and Ryan Jensen could be impact assets.

Ozzie Newsome knows talent and it's difficult to question someone with his track record. I liked this draft, with some caveats. Is second-year man and brother of QB Bruce, Gino Gradkowski, the answer at center, after the retirement of Matt Birk? Apparently the Ravens think so, choosing to avoid the position in the draft. Certainly one of the tackles they took would better have been an interior lineman or center? Also, Aaron Mellette is the only WR they selected. He is a Boldin-type player, without deep speed but with good hands and ability to separate with his body, and it is very possible the best GM in football has unearthed another small-school gem. However, given the departure of Anquin Boldin this puts a ton of faith on Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss. I also think the Ravens could have traded out of Round 1 completely, and that Elam, while he should be a star, could have been had more towards the middle of Round 2, and the team might have gained a pick in the process. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: The Ravens D should be different, but just as good, if not better, than they were in 2012. They still merit a top-10 defense/special teams pick, top 5 if Jacoby Jones continues to return kicks, not a given considering their WR situation. In my opinion, and looking at the roster, the Ravens will play quite a bit of two-TE sets in 2013, utilizing Pitta and sometimes Dickson as receivers. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (4th Round compensatory pick) could see the field in an H-back type role, and in passing situations, but is no fantasy factor and might not do anything other than work special teams. I have a strange feeling Baltimore drafted Mellette to replace Boldin, keep him on the radar. He has all the ability to beat out underachieving Tandon Doss for the #3 WR role, and could in fact be a better every down complement to Torrey Smith; Jacoby Jones is more suited as WR #3 and kick returner.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are on the rise, and things have been looking up mostly due to this team's strategy of taking the "best available player," usually regardless of position or need. Their 2013 draft was no different, but this time I think they should probably have deviated from their recent strategy. Don't get me wrong, most of their selections were good ones. Giovani Bernard was one of the best backs (#5) on my board, and addresses a need. With a little coaching up by the best, Margus Hunt (6'8", 280) is a monster of a man that will pay JJ Watt-like dividends in short order. Shawn Williams can, and should earn at least a nickel role in the Bengals' secondary. Sean Porter is under-rated and will start immediately, he needs to play with more of an edge, but is a textbook LB; even Reid Fragel, drafted in Round 7, will stick and see playing time. 

The draft, on the whole, was awesome, enviable for many teams. My one problem is with choosing Tyler Eifert with Pick #21. Unless you envision surely you have the next Rob Gronkowski (hopefully, with better durability...) at TE available to you, you should NEVER draft a TE, in the NFL, in Round 1. The justification is this: since 1990, 23 TEs have been chosen in either Round 1 or Round 2 of the NFL draft; of these, Reggie Johnson, Derek Brown, Irv Smith, Lonnie Johnson, Cameron Cleeland, Rickey Dudley, Bubba Franks, and Reggie Kelly certainly did not live up to their draft positions. For Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, Kyle Rudolph, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen, the jury is still out. In 23 years, then, less than half of the TEs selected in Rounds 1 and 2 of an NFL draft could be said to have had any success worthy of their draft position. Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, and Tony Gonzalez were the only real hits. You could argue for the likes of the remaining guys - perhaps Eric Green, Kyle Brady, Jeremy Shockey, or Todd Heap - being successful, but remember they came at the expense of high draft picks, where you want a high success rate. Also note there is no mention of Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez, or Gronkowski, all of whom were later round selections. With all the hype, Eifert was destined to be a Round 1 pick. I just wouldn't have been the team to do it. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: Bernard has the talent to win a starting job away from Green-Ellis, but the law firm should still retain his short yardage and goal line duties in 2013, even given this best-case scenario for Giovani. Eifert will probably see the field in double TE sets and is worth a flier as a TE2, but no better, as long as Gresham is still around. It is possible he wrests the job away from Gresham, but not likely. An injury to Gresham, however, could open the door to Eifert's potential. He will be on the field in any case, how much is the question.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The black and gold always draft well, and this year was no exception, it is the key reason why Pittsburgh only rarely finds themselves out of contention come December. With more needs than usual, due not in the least to the losses of Mike Wallace and James Harrison, as well as declining play from Troy Polamalu, the Steelers had their work cut out for them, and came through with a very nice draft. 

With the selection of LeVeon Bell in Round 2 they grabbed the co-best RB on my board (with Monte Ball), and one with more breakaway ability. Jarvis Jones is an NFL-ready linebacker that fits into the types of things Pittsburgh has its LBs do. Markus Wheaton will attempt to replace Mike Wallace, and has the speed to do so. Shamarko Thomas is short but stout and a gamer that will start sooner than later. Even Landry Jones was a great pickup at QB, given their situation  with Big Ben. Overall a nice draft, I would have liked to see some more pizazz in the later rounds, and maybe some more trading of picks. Still, the top four picks are instant starters and fulfill needs. Jones could stick as Big Ben's successor. Terry Hawthorne has what it takes if he can refine his coverage skills. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: Markus Wheaton and LeVeon Bell will be well-known fantasy names by the end of this season. Bell only has to beat out the likes of Isaac Redman, and possibly Jonathan Dwyer, to win the starting Steelers RB job, historically and actually a lucrative fantasy goldmine. Helping his cause is the fact that head coach Mike Tomlin is no fan of the "backfield by committee" approach to running the football. Still, tread with a bit of caution, but be advised if you wait too long in your fantasy draft Bell will be gone, some time shortly after Chris Johnson goes. He bears watching very closely this preseason. Wheaton has just as large an opportunity. It's no secret that this young man was drafted to fill Wallace's shoes, and he will need to be successful soon. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown do not scare anyone by themselves, they need that vertical threat and, barring any trade for a WR, Wheaton is now it. 

Cleveland Browns: With only five picks in the 2013 draft the Browns had to make them count. Heading in the right direction, the Browns' only real question mark, on paper, was at the QB position (Rams and Dolphins being in a similar state), but like Miami QB was not addressed through this draft at all. I actually prefer Weeden to Campbell, and to Tannehill, for that matter, and while the team declares the position open, the draft indicates it will be Weeden taking the snaps in Cleveland. 

Barkevious Mingo is expected to be the next Jason Pierre-Paul, so say the pundits, but his college track record is nothing special. To me, he is too risky to take with the 6th overall selection, especially in a draft that was rich with big defensive linemen. Regardless, he will get time on the edge, especially on passing downs. Leon McFadden is Round 3 was excellent value, and he should earn a starting job and succeed in the NFL. In fact, I predict his presence will help make Cleveland's one of the better defenses in 2013. Don't be surprised if it is late-rounder Armonty Bryant who provides the real power off the edge, he's not as fast as Mingo, but is heavier and is an excellent value grab late. All in all an average draft. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: I like the defense in 2013, and they will be a top-15 squad if the offense helps out more than it did last year. Other than that, no fantasy possibilities came through this draft.

2013 NFL Draft Team Needs: NFC

Following up on last post, here is a list of all 16 NFC teams, along with a few snippets about what they should be looking for in this upcoming April NFL draft.

UPDATED April 18, 2013 in ITALICS

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Call me crazy but if I'm Dallas I take the best running back on the board. DeMarco may have what it takes, but as of yet he hasn't carried the ball on the field enough to show it. That move, if successful, would also free up DeM as trade bait in 2014. Yes, this team has needs elsewhere, especially at DB and on the OL, but a playmaker in the backfield would elevate the Cowboys' attack up with the best in the league. They could simply outscore most opponents. I expect them to go DB-LB-OL with their first three picks, but they should go RB-OL-DB.
UPDATE: There's been plenty of talk about Dallas trading out of the #18 slot, I have them taking Datone Jones as the best player available. The option would be Jonathan Cooper. In round 2 or 3, they should look hard at RBs, like maybe LeVeon Bell.

Washington Redskins: A gamebreaking WR from the slot, like Tavon Austin, would benefit this team, as well as make Fred Davis expendable. More protection on the offensive line is a necessity, and when DeAngelo Hall is your primary pass defender you have, well, problems. The 'Skins should build around their formidable linebacker corps and use this draft to improve the necessities. I would recommend they go WR-DB-OL in this draft, they will probably go DB-OL-WR.
UPDATE: DBs and OLs should still be the areas of focus for the Skinz. They finally get to play in round 2, at which time a DB like David Amerson or DJ Hayden would be a good first pick. 

New York Giants: Giants seemed to fall apart last year, not just by electing to play one and a half wide receivers on offense, but also by quite the bit of inconsistency on defense. They would have been better off running with Reuben Randle from the beginning. Coach Coughlin's commitment to his veterans has this one down side. Now by trading Hixon, and the uncertainty on the Cruz holdout, the Giants almost have to take a WR early, again. This means holes at LB and in the secondary might not all get filled. I expect them to make a few free agent signings, and to draft RB-DL-DB, they should go LB-WR-DB.
UPDATE: Jarvis Jones is a great fit and could still be available for the Giants with the #19 pick. Then they could follow that up with Kawann Short in the second round.

Philadelphia Eagles: The entire core of this team is in flux, except at RB and perhaps at WR. If they do the smart thing and avoid drafting those positions, the Iggs can have an entirely different look under Chip Kelly in 2013. They need help at LB and in the secondary the most, and then there is that offensive line situation, which run blocks very well, but has a hard time protecting the passer. Undoubtedly, Kelly will want to make his presence felt on offense, and will do something there, too. They will draft OL-DL-WR but should probably be going OL-DB-LB.
UPDATE: Talk persists that Chip is not happy with the QBs he has and will draft one, perhaps with his first round pick. I say that would be nuts. Take Eric Fisher first, or whichever tackle is still on the board first, then take Nassib as a project. Right now I think they will wait a couple of rounds before taking a stab at a QB. 

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Falcons came close to the Super Bowl last year and on paper seem to have come out of free agency a bit weaker than before it. Bad move releasing Clabo, one of the league's better linemen, especially considering his manageable salary, as well as unwise dropping John Abraham, who could still be effective in a rotation; he WAS their pass rush in 2013, getting 10 sacks in limited play, while the rest of the team combined got 17... but they did sign Steven Jackson, which is a slight upgrade over the Michael Turner-Jacquizz Rodgers combo, but not much better. They will draft OL-DL-LB, they would be better off going DL-RB-LB.
UPDATE: Nearly the entire league has the Falcons grabbing a tackle with their first pick, and I originally had them tabbed for DJ Fluker. Fluker has since risen on the board considerably, and probably won't be available for Atlanta at #30. Jonathan Cooper may end up being their man, I have a strange feeling they will trade up. 

Carolina Panthers: Arguably, the two-headed beast (with an appendage) at RB is dragging this whole team down. Using RBs the way they have been has vastly reduced the value of both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, so much so that the Panthers might as well stay the course and draft for more pressing needs. Steve Smith has needed a complement since Muhsin Muhammad, and neither Brandon LaFell nor Dominick Hixon has the breakaway ability to exploit single-coverage matchups enough. They also need some pressure from the DL. If Beason comes back to his old self they should be OK at LB. I would also grab a DB. They will draft DL-OL-LB, they should draft DL-DL-WR, and grab the best coverage DB they can find on the open market (besides Nakamura).
UPDATE: Sheldon Richardson would be a solid selection with the 14th pick. He fits their scheme nicely and is basically a pop-and-play talent with very limited downside and risk. Remember, the Panthers have no second round pick.

Tampa Bay Bucs: Despite what some say, I like the way this team is going. Like the coaching, the team cohesion, and choice of talent under the new regime. Were I the GM, I wouldn't address the offense at all through the draft, except maybe some late stabs at QB and OL. Freeman seems to have improved a bit under Sullivan, a development which may also be due to Schiano's short leash and/or motivational skills. Still, Freeman will need to do better in clutch situations, and make better decisions with the ball, to realize his full potential. Look for them to draft TE-QB-DB, they should draft DL-LB-DB.
UPDATE: Talks for acquiring the services of Revis from the Jets have, as of this writing, broken down. Something still might get done, but as I have alluded to before, my suggestion would be for the Bucs to continue building the team their way and let someone else ransom the farm for Revis. Either way, they will be looking at DBs often and early, I still say they fool eveyone and take Ziggy Ansah, then follow that up with Jamar Taylor in Round 2.

New Orleans Saints: Payton's Place is back on the air which means more fast-paced, high-scoring offense. To keep it that way, expect them to send Colston a complement (and perhaps, a message) this year by spending a high choice on a WR. Yes, despite several defensive deficiencies and inadequate depth in key spots, this machine is built for speed. Other than that, expect them to wisely concentrate on upgrading the defense. Plus, don't underestimate what the cadence at  the line by Brees and the speed and variety of play calling does to cover up deficiencies on the offensive line. They'll go WR-DB-DL, they should go DL-OL-LB and hope somebody releases a starting-caliber DB. Can't fix it all in one year without it.
UPDATE: New Orleans has been pretty quiet in these days leading up to the draft. Dion Jordan should be their first pick at #15.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: This franchise will find it difficult to win much with Cutler as QB. The problem appears more locker-room than performance related, and I question sometimes the effort of his surrounding cast as much as I do Cutler's. My guess would be Cutler would have more success elsewhere. Assuming they roll with last year's starters on offense, and that the addition of Bennett at TE is more than a stop-gap measure, they will be able to use the draft to fulfill needs. I do like the signings of Anderson and DJ Williams to fill the holes at LB, and that move allows them to go for somebody big to help out Paea at the nose. On paper now they look better than last year already. They will draft RB-OL-LB, they would be better off going DL-OL-RB. You know who makes a lot of sense here? Geno Smith.
UPDATE: Almost sure Geno won't be around, but it would be interesting. Assuming the teams picking before the Bears address their most pressing needs, there is a very real possibility Chicago could luck into Chance Warmack, and that's my pick for them at #20.

Detroit Lions: Oh Detroit, where every step forward is one step back. Seemingly set at the skill slots, let's see which direction they go in the draft. The OL and DL are also already very good, if not great. The problem is primarily in the secondary and at LB, as neither could execute when required to finish ball games. Schwartz would be a better coordinator or sideline motivator than head coach, he is too excitable, too many ups and downs, and this is reflected by his players' performances on the field. They'll likely draft RB-DB-WR, the order should be DB-DB-DB. Yep.
UPDATE: Almost certainly either Dee Milliner or Xavier Rhodes will be the Lions' pick at #5. Then they could pick up Cyprien in the 2nd Round.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers have more or less been exposed as a two-trick pony. They throw the ball well, and rush the passer well with a certain three players. Stop the pass, play the pass, and when on offense, control those three men, and you can beat the Packers. It is imperative that this team draft or find its missing players soon, because the rest of the division is leveling the table. Top of that list is RB. I expect them to finally get it, kind of, and go RB-DB-DL, they should go RB-DL-DB. There also appears to be a problem with the coaching and/or conditioning of this team's defense, which has enough talent to be better than they are statistically. More beef or speed on the DL may be all that's missing.
UPDATE: Matt Elam makes sense for the Packers. I also like Hankins here, but DB is more of a priority for the Pack.

Minnesota Vikings: I like the style of this team, not the least because of the demeanor and sideline presence of Leslie Frazier. He reminds so much of Tom Landry I wonder what he would look like in a suit and wearing Tom's hat. His consistent patience, deference and allocation of responsibilities, and dedication to doing what his team does best paid off last year. Still, they have needs all over the field. I would also not count on Greg Jennings being the player someone of his new salary would be expected to be, but it is possible, especially if Frazier does as he has promised and moves Jennings around like he did Harvin. I would draft DL-OL-DB, the Vikings will probably go OL-DB-LB.
UPDATE: Vikings still wheeling and dealing and have decided to let the top-rated DB in the league, Antoine Winfield, go to Seattle. An already weak secondary just got weaker. Desmond Trufant and Robert Woods in the 1st Round, then Margus Hunt in the 2nd, and Minnesota should be A-OK. 

NFC West

St. Louis Rams: Jeff Fisher is a good coach that needs to make the personnel decisions in order to reach his coaching potential. He needs to have a majority of "his guys" in order to field his best team. When I think of Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler comes to mind, someone with all the tools and pedigree, who just can't seem to inspire those around him just a tad, or kick up his game when required. I would throw everyone for a loop and grab a QB early. Sure, this team has needs on the OL, even after signing Jake Long. They also should bring in a RB to at least push Daryl Richardson and Pead. I like the defense. Expect them to go RB-OL-DB, they should go QB-LB-DL and make that defense superb. Hopefully Jared Cook is the TE answer Lance Kendricks so far hasn't been.
UPDATE: With good QB play this team can make the playoffs in 2013 regardless of what it does in the draft. Since there is no QB better than Bradford in the immediate future for the Rams, they should draft Tavon Austin to help him out and play the Amendola role. Take a shot at Giovanni Bernard in the 2nd.

San Francisco 49ers: This team is strong, can go in virtually any direction, and is the most difficult team to figure out in this 2013 draft. I will hazard a guess that they go for a stand-up defensive end, or another rush-linebacker type first. They'll probably end up drafting DL-DB-OL, when they should draft RB-DB-OL. No, Frank Gore's successor is not yet on the roster.
UPDATE: Kevin Minter is my pick for them here. They also have the luxury of time to nurture the pedigree of Kyle Long if they grab him in Round 2. 

Arizona Cardinals: The desert birds look to rise like the fiery phoenix under new coach Arians. Expect a mix of what you saw last year in Indy and what he did in his last season with Pittsburgh. Having Mendenhall and Ryan Williams is a risky proposition, and despite his having other holes to fill, I anticipate Arians and his staff not being hesitant about taking a RB early. After that, they could use another "umph" factor on D. Finally, line, line, line, you can't do anything if you can't keep the defense off your QB. Even a tough blocking TE who can catch is a possibility. Their choices will probably run OL-DL-RB, would be better off in the long run going OL-OL-DL and use up some of their remaining picks on a RB and a QB.
UPDATE: After signing Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton I will say that the Cardinals stand pat at QB until the very late rounds. Lane Johnson should be their first selection, then Sylvester Williams in the 2nd.

Seattle Seahawks: This team has improved itself since the end of 2012. Its defense, especially, will be much better, and expect more consistency on offense if Russell Wilson continues to progress at the rate at which he so far has; it's arguable that he has more leadership qualities than any QB drafted in 2012, and of those, in my opinion, there are several good QBs who will be around for some time. Addressing most of their immediate needs through free agency and trades, expect Seattle to go for the best player available, with concentration on the OL. They will draft OL-DB-TE, they should draft OL-LB-TE.
UPDATE: The signing of Winfield will make it even more difficult for opponents to score through the air against Seattle. They have few needs except on the OL and perhaps at LB. I say they nab Tyler Eifert in the 2nd.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round RECAP And CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW

Well the NFL Divisional playoffs didn't turn out quite as yours truly expected, as you can see by reading the predictions of the previous few posts, but I think enough points were nailed square on the head to merit another guess at the upcoming NFL Conference Championship games this Sunday. To recap, I incorrectly predicted Seattle to beat Atlanta and Denver to beat Baltimore. I guessed right choosing San Francisco over Green Bay and New England over Houston. In my defense of this sheepish mediocrity - really I think it is an affliction - Seattle had what it took to beat Atlanta and came within seconds of doing so. By the way, if you look at the tape of that game you will see some funny use of the clock by whoever was running it down in Hotlanta. For example, at least 3 seconds elapsed before Atlanta's final kickoff return(er) began running with the ball out of his end zone, and the start of the game clock. On one of Ryan's sideline passes on that final drive, for another example, the receiver was clearly stopped in bounds yet the referee stopped the clock as if the receiver (I think it was Jones) went out of bounds. Anyway, I'm just saying, this strategy almost backfired, as those extra 8 seconds or even more at the end of the game were almost enough to let Seattle have yet one more chance. Yet one more reason homefield is an advantage?

As for Baltimore beating Peyton and the Broncos, I DID say not to count out this resurgent Ravens defense, which did enough to win, and I emphasized the influence of Ray Lewis - who had 17 tackles - as well as mentioned Manning's terrible history against the Ravens. Also a good prediction on the Ravens' special teams production. But, as if called out by my preview of him for that game, Joe Flacco put in an amazing performance, yes it was one of those days I talked about, that when he is on he is really on. I guess I gave too much credit to Denver's defense, which I was sure could stifle what has most of the season been a predictable offense. Perhaps getting rid of their coordinator did some good. That and the motivational skills of Ray Lewis. This game was no surprise to me, I knew Baltimore could win, I just would never have imagined they could win a shootout... in Denver.

So close but yet so far. Let's try again, for Sunday:

I. AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 6:30 PM ET, CBS
These two are somewhat strangers to each other, and this week will mark only the third time the two have met in the postseason since 1996, always at New England. The Ravens handed the Patriots a last-seconds loss back in September in Baltimore, but only once before has Baltimore ever beaten New England, and that was in the 2009 playoffs at Gillette Stadium.

New England plays well at home, but Baltimore fields the type of team to handle both the cold and the crowds in frigid Foxboro. On offense the Ravens should be able to move the ball on New England as least as much as Houston did last weekend, and Baltimore's defense is back in the Big Play department but still giving up a lot of points.

I have two forces pulling on me in my attempt to forecast this game. History is on the side of New England, as is the home field advantage and Bill Belichick. I'd take Brady over Flacco at QB, Rice over Ridley at RB but just barely, call the WRs even, and normally give a big TE nod to the Pats, but that gap, with the news that Gronkowski will be out the rest of the season, closes a bit when it's just Hernandez against Pitta and Dickson. I expect to see more Woodhead than Vereen in this one, and maybe a 12 catch day for Welker running right at Ray Lewis' spot. But I also have that "looks like one for Ray Lewis" feel about it all now, and that complicates matters considerably. It is arguable that no team currently in the playoffs has the entire combination of offense, defense, and special teams necessary on paper to win it all EXCEPT the Ravens. They have the most experience together as a total team, as I think the Patriots' defense is work in progress with almost rotating doors at big positions, and that the 49ers are still adjusting to their new toy on offense. The Falcons defense, to me, while it has demonstrated talent at times (as I mentioned last week, you see what happened when John Abraham had to leave the last game) hasn't yet shown championship caliber cohesion. I would not want them defending my end zone with an opponent needing a quick six.

What to do? Predicted score: RAVENS 34 Patriots 31. And while everyone's going to be talking Ray Lewis, and perhaps rightfully so, I'm only gonna say one thing in support of my prediction: Ed Reed.

II. NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 3:00 PM ET, FOX
Another good game, this one for all the marbles in the NFC. The biggest question here is which Colin Kaepernick will we see? The one from last weekend, when he looked like the second coming of Red Grange, or the one of several weeks ago, when he displayed all the passing accuracy of a drunken Alex Smith? As I said last week in the keys to a 49ers win, Colin had to use his legs, and boy did he, he got more than the first downs I forecasted. And what about the resurgence of Michael Crabtree. Has he finally figured it out? I also said last week that if the Falcons could beat Seattle they would get close to making me a believer, and they have accomplished that. But not with any kind of flair. They won the game, but have erased few doubts about their ability to win The Big One. Perhaps it is best for them this way, maybe the teams playing against Atlanta feel no need to "rise up" against them, which would be a big mistake right now. Atlanta can win it all easily, but can they avoid the mental, coaching, penalty, defensive, and game plan mistakes that almost cost them their game last week?

If you will recall, Seattle flambayed the 49ers in San Francisco's final regular season road game. Yes Seattle's D shut down the 49ers offense, but Kaepernick wasn't all that impressive when he had to put the ball in the air, and like Matt Ryan last week, was seriously outplayed by Russell Wilson in that one. But then again, this is an Atlanta team that got pretty beaten by the Bucs, at home, not a few weeks ago.

When it comes down to it, I don't think either of these teams will be able to beat the winner of the AFC title game, but stranger things have happened. In this one, I don't think Kaepernick can do it alone, but Frank Gore will test again that Falcons defense that did a number on Lynch last week. QBs EVEN for this one, WR edge to Falcons, RB edge to Niners, TE edge to Falcons, defense edge to Niners, homefield to Falcons, kicker to Falcons....wow, looks like (Predicted Score...) ATLANTA 24 San Francisco 20.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Seattle At Atlanta

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: SEATTLE AT ATLANTA

I. Seattle: If you were to pick a hot team right now, heading into the divisional round of playoff games, that team would be Seattle.  Every season it is not usually the best team all season that wins the Super Bowl but the team that is the playing best at this time of year. Not predicted to do a whole lot before the season began, these Seahawks have surprised everyone and gone so far as to have already won a playoff game. Much of this turnaround has to do with perhaps the most unexpected surprise of the 2012 draft Russell Wilson, and a defense packed with studs in the secondary. As of right now it seems only inexperience can stop this team, that and a shown difficulty playing on the road.

QB: I have been high on Russell Wilson since watching him play his first exhibition game. Not blessed with the strongest arm or extraordinary stature to see over the line, Wilson gets by on guts, guile, quick feet and mind, and a strong desire to succeed. He is a born leader on the field and the game has not proven too fast for him as it has some more famous past rookie QBs. He has shown again the mistakes too many in NFL personnel departments make when evaluating players, that main mistake being relying too much on measurables and stature. This kid can play, and arguably has turned a mediocre team into a very good one. I am rooting for this cat for many reasons, he has a long bright future in the NFL. His being named the starting QB from jump street will go down as one of Pete Carroll's best moves as a coach, and he's made a few of them during his tenure in Seattle. He is a player's coach who knows talent when he sees it, and in Wilson he has found a gem for now and the future. Wilson provides more than enough at the position for the Seahawks to win at Atlanta this week. Expecting even more improvement next season, for fantasy purposes I have him ranked at QB #7 for 2013.

RB: Beast Mode a.k.a. Marshawn Lynch had an even better year than was expected of him, mostly due to his keeping his injuries, especially his chronic back problems, under control this season. He is a nasty running back, running hard and strong and hardly ever going down on the first hit or by arm tackles. Now that his off-field problems are behind him, apparently, his durability is the only issue which remains and which keeps him from being mentioned as one of the top backs in the league. But right now he is that, he provides a horse the Seahawks can ride this Sunday and on into the future. Backup Robert Turbin has also impressed in relief of Lynch this season, and has a future in the league. Fantasy-wise for 2013, because of his heavy workload I have Lynch ranked as my #2 RB for 2013, behind only Adrian Peterson and, yes, ahead of Arian Foster just barely. Barring injury I don't see this changing much during the offseason, but just in case I have also ranked Turbin, whose fringe value right now could elevate to a big payoff should anything happen to Lynch.

WR: Considering his WR talent what Wilson has done is even more impressive. It's not that Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin are bad receivers. In fact I think all three of them are underrated by pro scouts and in fantasy circles. It's just that all of them are fairly similar types, limited route-runners that cannot really stretch the field. While Seattle has used Tate and Rice in this role with limited success, they really don't have that big top-end burner, for example their opponent this week, Atlanta has two of them. In a way this plays to the strengths of Wilson, and perhaps the long bombs were missing rather because of  fears about Wilson's arm strength that this crew's ability to get open deep. Rice is a fluid runner with average hands who just gets dinged up too much, this history of bumps and bruises sidelining him has gone on since he Vikings days. When on and healthy he is a very good, if not quite top-tier receiver. He's not much of a blocker and will often give away decoy routes too early. Golden Tate has had his best season to date and has shown a knack for making big catches and difficult catches and probably - despite some conspicuous drops - has the best ball-concentration and hands of the three. He is also probably the quickest in space, and probably, in my opinion, should be playing the slot. Doug Baldwin, a decent receiver in his own right, had a rough year due to injuries and not being all that involved in the game plans. He probably should be moved outside. Bottom line is that there are several possibilities for Wilson on every pass play, none of them the focus enough for them to be keyed on by opponents. So while they aren't on par with the duo they'll face in Atlanta, at least not yet, they will present enough of a mystery to keep Atlanta's defense guessing on passing downs on Sunday. For fantasy football in 2013, I have Rice ranked the highest right now at WR #30, with Golden Tate at #46. I expect some movement during the offseason with these guys, probably both, should they retain their starting roles, will go up in value by kickoff 2013.

TE: This "you'll never know who he'll throw the ball to" mystery progresses on through the tight ends. Zach Miller has come on late and provides perhaps the primary TE target for Wilson, but it just might be Anthony McCoy who makes an unexpected grab. In fact the whole key to Seattle's passing game is the uncertainty about the targets. This could be due to Wilson's ability to go through his mental progressions, that is his mental quickness ability to find the open man and make the decision to let the ball go, or due to a good game plan that spreads the ball around. My guess is it's mostly Wilson with a little bit of gameplan, but then again teams don't usually give rookies many "just hit the open man" options, usually they call the play and have the QB throw to the spot or particular man. Regardless, this unit won't win the game for Seattle on Sunday, but it does provide a very real threat that can easily go under the radar. Especially if Wilson has to run and starts to improvise, both Miller and McCoy could prove to be valuable targets. For fantasy in 2013 this is a situation to monitor, because if one emerges and becomes involved in the offense, that one will have some value for fantasy football draft purposes. I have Miller only ranked at TE #29 right now, that will likely go up during the offseason, but if not, you are looking at value picks here.

Defense/Special Teams: Seattle's defense is now known as one of the best in the league right now and deservedly so. The numbers don't tell the whole story as this unit is blessed with a defensive backfield half of which most teams would pay through the nose for. These dudes are big, fast, hit hard, have attitudes, and haven't even been full strength most of the year. Pete Carroll can also pick DBs. Sherman, Chancellor, Browner, Earl Thomas - they carry this squad, as what's in front of them, with perhaps the exception of Red Bryant and maybe Bobby Wagner, are middling prospects adequate and nothing more. They are backed up by a brick wall, and that makes the linebackers and DL play even better. This week my guess is you will see just how good this defensive backfield of Seattle is: they will be tested, and come out with a passing grade. For fantasy purposes in 2013, they will be the third or fourth squad off the board, rightfully so.

K: Stephen Hauschka was the team's kicker most of the year and did a fine job, he is out for this week and so the the Seahawks have hired on Ryan Longwell for the playoff run. Longwell can still kick the ball, this offense does need a reliable kicker so this is a situation to watch on Sunday, one that could actually be a difference maker. Assuming Hauschka returns to his 2012 form, he should be taken highly in fantasy 2013 drafts.

II. Atlanta: The Rodney Dangerfields of this playoffs, if not the entire season, the Falcons' great regular season success has not translated into much respect in the minds of football commentators or oddsmakers, the latter calling them one of the longshots to win the Super Bowl. I've never been a big fan of Atlanta either, and I also don't quite believe they are as good as their record, but they have me right there on the edge of believerdom. They have what appears to be an accurate passer, a dynamic and perhaps the best pair of wideouts in the league, a thunder-and-lightning running game, and a slightly better than average defense. Their defensive line is very good when healthy but the rest of the defense is adequate at best. It seems that for all their improvement in the offensive side of the ball, the defensive side hasn't gained much. Anyway, to make me a believer they need to win this game on Sunday against the Seahawks. They do that and they just might be for real.

QB: Matt Ryan has it all as far as tools go. He is big, strong, stays healthy, smart, makes good reads, knows the offense, and wants to win. How badly can make all the difference. In many ways for me Ryan is like Matt Schaub in Houston, just going in the opposite direction. Ryan has the same type of questions surrounding him although he, like Schaub, apparently has all the necessary tools. Ryan's limitations, or apparent limitations, are also similar to Schaub's: you don't want to have to rely on his arm to get in the end zone with time running out (though he does seem to be improving in this area); he is basically immobile; and he can be rattled with even the slightest bit of pressure. Neither of them has yet to win "the Big Ones." But as long as Ryan continues to improve - and as long as he has those two big guns on his hips - he is a dangerous man, dangerous on Sunday and dangerous for fantasy purposes in 2013, where I have him ranked higher than ever right now at QB #8.

RB: Most people will talk about how Michael Turner's days are numbered, but his complement Jacquizz Rodgers is as likely to lose yardage as gain it and the rest of the depth behind him is a non-issue. Turner, if not as effective as he once was, still can move the chains, punch it in at the goal line, and keep you honest in the middle. He needs to get heated up, and it is no coincidence that as his carries have declined so has his performance. Turner is the Falcons' best option and will continue to be until this team brings in another bigtime RB. He might have some success on Sunday but don't bet on it as I don't think the mindset of this coaching staff has the patience to go without playing with their big toys. For fantasy purposes in 2013 you can take a chance on Rodgers if you want, myself I'd sooner grab Turner at a bargain price, around RB #20 range.

WR: Here are the big dogs and the primary reason these Falcons had the best record in the NFL in 2012. It is nearly impossible to single-cover either Roddy White or Julio Jones and teams' struggles in trying to do so has allowed Atlanta to have opportunities open up elsewhere, whether for running plays or Tony G. over the middle. They are big weapons these two, White with the better hands and quicks but Jones with the big-league upfield speed and body control. They will challenge and be challenged by the Seattle secondary often this weekend and the battle should be a joy to watch. Both should be taken very highly in 2013 fantasy drafts, I have Jones at WR #8 and White at WR #15, all in all, and again going against the grain, I'd sooner wait and nab White a bit later.

TE: While the Atlanta WRs will be busy battling that formidable Seattle secondary, I expect Tony Gonzalez to become a focal point in this game early and often. Of all the players on the Falcons he is the most responsible for this team's success, and I mean that sincerely. He plays each PLAY, not game, as if it is his last, and he is just as content out there blocking as receiving, where he still draws double coverage as a matter of routine. His hands have natural stickum on them, and he times his jumps to perfection. He is a prototype TE, always has been, and a sure first-ballot Hall Of Famer. He will need to come up huge this weekend for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks, and if he plays in 2013 he will be a top-3 TE in nearly all fantasy drafts.

Defense/Special Teams: The weakness for these Falcons is its defense and minor losses can hurt it considerably. If a questionable John Abraham is limited or does not play on Sunday, for example, this unit could be in more trouble than should reslt from a defense's loss of one starter. Teams have shown this season that you can move the ball on these Falcons, especially when they are starter down, and this might in fact be one reason why Atlanta is not garnering the respect it seems to deserve, that depth issue. Seattle doesn't have a potent offense but they do have an unpredictable and efficient one, and so Atlanta's D will need one of its best games of the year to make it to the NFL's Championship round. For fantasy football in 2013 this unit only has value because of Atlanta's offensive efficiency and nobody should reach to take them, if take them at all.

K: Matt Bryant has been one of the best kickers in the league the past couple of years, but looks like he's on a rapid decline. Battling injuries and missing kicks he would ordinarily make, it is all I can do to call his tryst against Ryan Longwell this week a push. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards until the preseason is about over.

PREDICTED SCORE: Homefield edge to Falcons, QBs even, RB edge to Seattle, defense edge to Seattle, TE edge to Falcons, WR edge to Falcons. looks like Falcons, but I say never mind that SEATTLE 31 Atlanta 30, in a barnburner. Expect some big INTs for Seattle secondary, and some characteristic Falcons coaching staff mistakes, to ice the unexpected win. Seattle loses in all the stats categories, but wins the game. You might be looking at a destiny forged - by the goddess Nike? - for these 2012 Seattle Seahawks.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Green Bay At San Francisco

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO

I. Green Bay: I think the big question about this Packers team is how good is it compared to the past couple of years. While the defense played better last week, and better at home overall, I think this unit has slipped a bit and is pretty ripe for the taking on the road. The good news for the defense is that their opponent this week, the 49ers, are in sort of a transition on offense, and so are not large point producers. The Packers offense can score with anyone and on anyone, I do have some questions about the center of that offensive line, but it still keeps Rodgers relatively clean, and in fact sometimes gives him all day to to throw the ball. Much of the reason for that is the plethora of wide receiving threats that have to be accounted for, reducing blitzes and the possibility of bringing extra men after Rodgers.

QB: Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, his stats and winning percentage are undeniable. He is not afraid to wing it and can handle a two-minute drill as well as anyone. He shows good pocket presence, a strong desire to win, and possesses extreme confidence on the field. He has free reign to audible, and passes near the goal line. He stays healthy and has many receiving options to work with, and is always for fantasy purposes the first or second QB taken, and that should remain the same in 2013. As for this season, he started off slowly, has had to live life without Greg Jennings all regular season, and Jordy Nelson for significant portions of it, but still he has managed to steer this team into the playoffs, and keep himself at the top of the statistical categories. Despite all that, I think his numbers are a bit inflated because of those short goal line TDs and Packers' penchant for the pass, especially in the red zone. In saying he can score on anyone, this week he'll have one of his more difficult tests of that theory.

RB: Well what can you say about DuJuan Harris, Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and John Kuhn, other than that if you get to start an entire NFL team's backfield in your fantasy league they're not bad? It appears right now that the team is going to ride Harris, my guess is he'll start this weekend, and possibly in 2013. Grant is purely a stop-gap measure, although don't be surprised if Green is traded or released this offseason, especially if Green Bay goes for a RB via the draft or trade this spring. Kuhn is the designated short-yardage guy and fan favorite, to me he's a luxury to have around for the Packers, a token to use here and there, for show even. The running game on paper looks like a liability going into the Bay, perhaps the Packers might do well to surprise everyone and run it up the guts - or try to - against the Niners on Saturday, because my guess here is the 49ers are preparing for a Rodgers bombardment. Actually, so am I. Fantasy-wise, only Harris appears to be draftable in 2013 right now, but this is certainly a situation to monitor in the coming months, as whoever does emerge as the primary ball carrier will have decent value.

WR: It doesn't get much better at wideout than what the Packers have in stock right now. In fact, one could say there's a little too much seasoning in this receiving pot and that there is too much pressure on Rodgers and the coordinators to keep everyone involved. Jordy Nelson is back I hear, but this season he has tailed off from a remarkable 2011. Injuries and his running mate James Jones have been responsible, speaking of who, is really the main target in crucial situations now, a spot once held by a healthy Nelson. The emergence of Randall Cobb as more than just a kick returner has demanded he see the field often, perhaps more than he has so far. Greg Jennings is back and ready to go, that is, probably go elsewhere in 2013. Regardless, the Pack have the horses to move this wagon for sure, and an accurate gunslinger to fire the ball to them. Even old Donald Driver might get in some playoff catches. They are a load for any team and will be for even that stingy San Francisco defense this weekend. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I have Cobb and Nelson ranked #17 and #18, Jennings at #25 anticipating a new team, and James Jones currently unranked, until I see where he ends up.

TE: I don't know that Jermichael Finley helps so much as just adds another possibility for defenses to have to account for. He is just as liable to drop an easy catch as catch a difficult one, but he's conspicuous and almost always draws people in his direction. He has talent, one wonders how much the nagging injuries he's tried to play through has hindered his overall progress at his position. Tom Crabtree is an average talent who just might be earning more time if Finley doesn't get near his ceiling soon, or perhaps look for the Packers to tend to this position in the draft. My guess is they give Finley another year or two. He could sneak one in this week could Finley, especially if San Fran goes with a lot of blitzing to try and get to Rodgers. Down and out, 52-flat, 10 yards. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I see him as a #20ish TE as of right now.

Defense/Special Teams: In actuality a win against a one-dimensional Vikings offense at home shouldn't qualify your "defense being back" but this is precisely the talk in punditville across the land. Don't you believe it one second. The defense that cometh with the Iceman is a middling unit even when healthy, and especially on the road. They are vulnerable deep and against the run, and my bet is that is what the 49ers try to do. Still, because of their great offense this unit is almost always fresh and still does carry a penchant for the big play. Same with their return unit as long as Cobb is bringing them back. Fantasy-wise they will most certainly be drafted too early, by someone.

Kicker: The team has done the admirable thing and stayed with Mason "Bing" Crosby, but what they are calling a "slump" I'm calling "he'll be gone in 2013." It is entirely possibly that Crosby's woes hurt this team in its playoff run, not a good thing at a time when all points are to be cherished. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards yet.

II. San Francisco: For all their recent struggles on both sides of the ball, this team is still loaded with talent, especially with a defense that can still pack a wallop. If anyone is capable of stifling Green Bay it's still these 49ers, at least in the NFC. They will have their work cut out for them this weekend. Overall I see this team as average on offense, all things considered. Maybe it is true that in the long run the team is better off with Colin Kaepernick at QB, myself I am not sure the Colin-itis will last as long as some believe. If the Niners are to win on Saturday, they are going to have to do it with big plays on defense.

QB: Kaepernick has some talent but also some obvious weak points. He's not a needle-threader, his passes almost always reach the receiver in the wrong spot, and despite 2 years of learning he still has trouble reading coverages. His ball security is not all that great. But the kid is big and strong and can move, you can tell he loves to play, and his arm is plenty strong enough. On this day coming, though. I don't think Michael Crabtree will be left free to roam, and he better be looking elsewhere, that or be prepared to keep a few drives alive with his legs. I am not sure about his long-term potential. My best guess is he stays on and starts next season for the 49ers too. Accounting for some improvement and the nature of his offense, I have him at QB #17 right now for 2013.

RB: Everybody knows about Frank Gore, and he is another player who annually has his retirement papers written for him by the media-drones, but who nevertheless comes back and plays at a high level. He will see plenty of totes this weekend, you can bet the house, and I expect a combination of Gore and LaMichael James for flavor as the Niners try and eat up clock time in this one. Gore is explosive, can hit you inside or outside, and doesn't drop many passes. James hasn't shown me much yet. There is enough here, though, to have some success running the ball on the Packers. For 2013 fantasy I have Gore ranked #18, I expect that number to rise as he cements another starting season.

WR: Michael Crabtree has elevated his game recently, whether because of chemistry building with Kaepernick or because he finally put his head on straight. Beset with problems and injuries since his highly-acclaimed drafting two years ago, he does have the physical talent, when 100% healthy, to be an AJ Green type of player. His problems rather are all mental, he is a way too cocky for what he has accomplished at the pro level, and needs someone to step up next to him. On that note, Randy Moss is being sent as a decoy most plays, but when he's not he's been open, just has had hardly any balls come in his direction. Still, he may do something of a surprise Saturday, but not he, nor anyone else on the current 49ers roster, is that 2nd WR answer. Weakness here almost necessitates a ground game for San Francisco in this divisional round of the NFL playoffs. For fantasy purposes next year, I still can't see Crabtree higher than WR #40, but this number will likely change as the 2013 season approaches.

TE: What has happened to Vernon Davis? Yes he was Alex Smith's favorite safety valve, but still there were many plays designed for him in the past. Lately it has been the slightly quicker, better-handed Delanie Walker making the plays from the line. I look for Walker to get a score in this one, it's too bad the team hasn't figured out a way to get both these guys in at the same time. This can reinforce the opinion that Harbaugh does his best as a coaching motivator, and that his innovations on offense leave a lot to be desired. For 2013 fantasy, I'd probably take a shot at Davis at around TE #12 or so, but it is just as likely Walker passes him up by kickoff 2013. Keep a watch there.

Defense/Special Teams: As I've already mentioned, if the 49ers expect to win they are going to have to do it on Saturday with defense. Their biggest task to date this season is on the horizon, and I think they will step up and make this more difficult for the Packers than most expect. They will be a top drafted unit in 2013 fantasy leagues.

K: David Akers is in a slump and may have hit that proverbial brick wall. Going from being one of the best, most accurate kickers in the NFL, to a shaky proposition almost along the lines of Mason Crosby, can only be attributed to recent injuries and all that mileage. I say he goes good a couple times in this one, but I am sure the team will bring in some competition for him in 2013.

PREDICTED SCORE: I'd like to see the Packers lose, I don't know why but I would, I just am not sure that this present 49ers defense can stop Rodgers for four quarters. I think it will be another very good and close game. QB edge to Packers, RB edge to Niners; WR edge to Packers, TE edge to Niners; Defense edge to Niners, kicking edge to Niners. In an upset, SAN FRANCISCO 30, GREEN BAY 24.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Houston At New England

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: HOUSTON AT NEW ENGLAND

I. Houston: It's funny that a team that was doing so well has suddenly become a big longshot to even make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The Texans defense is its strongpoint this season, and despite some late-season struggles they still bring some heavy equipment to the field, the primary one being Mr. JJ Watt. It is a luxury for a defense to have guys (or more specifically, A guy) on the D-Line that require a blocking crew of at least two men every play. That Watt also moves around all over the place makes him like a blitzing linebacker in the frame of a defensive end. He is also relentless, and I personally am of the opinion this Texans (or "Texas" as some commentators like Al Michaels call them) team would be no better than 8-8 without him; Watt gets plenty of attention, and when opposing teams have been controlling him they have had some success moving the ball. All in all, this is probably the 4th best defense in this divisional round and no better, and that will make it difficult for them to stop the playoff-seasoned Patriots. On offense, Houston doesn't really scare anyone, and sometimes one has to wonder about the play-calling going on there. It seems as if the team is either in a) Arian Foster mode, or b) Andre Johnson mode, never a nice mix bouncing between their two offensive stars. Think how many times Johnson has had big days when the team bailed on the run, or how many times Johnson was forgotten when Foster was getting major touches. I think the defense is good enough to slow down New England, and I know these Texans can score on New England, if they call the right plays. If they fall behind early big and abandon the run game, I really do think they will have a better chance, by beating that Patriots secondary with Johnson.

QB: Well, I've never been a big Matt Schaub fan, and when you ask me why I find it difficult to explain. I mean you have to give him his due: since he has been a starter (HOU 2007), he is one of the most consistent QBs year to year in the NFL; he's thrown for over 4,000 yards 3 of the last 5 years, and more than 20 TDs 3 of the last 4 years, and the numbers would be better over the last 6 years if not for his missing time in 2011, 2007, and 2008. He is the profile of efficiency. I guess what it is, for me, is that Schaub doesn't seem to have that "just give me the ball and let me win it" attitude. I think as a leader he is too team-oriented almost to a fault. Sometimes you have to lead be example, this is desire as much as playing hard on the field. In short I think the knock on Schaub is he is efficient because he doesn't take enough chances, for fear probably of letting down his team if he fails. I am not saying this is true, I am saying this is what it appears. He seems personable and a nice guy and all, but can you see him saying in the huddle "come on guys, suck it up we need this one"? How about audibling at the line like the Mannings, or even Andrew Luck? He doesn't seem clutch, and is not a guy I want when I need a score with 2 minutes on the clock. But he provides enough efficiency to beat the Patriots secondary on Sunday. Fantasy football-wise, he is a middling prospect, someone always under consideration by those who wait to draft a QB.

RB: Arian Foster is well known in NFL and fantasy football circles alike as one of the best RBs in the league. I agree with that assessment, but much of that is because of the really thin line of superstar runners in the game today. Nevertheless, Foster run smoothly, almost effortlessly, and his true comparison is Eric Dickerson, as Foster runs upright at times, and sometimes even with those Dickerson-like long, high strides; he doesn't so much "hit" a hole as "step through" that hole. One school of thought would say Houston should come out on Sunday and run Foster until New England stops him. Then again, it is this history on offense of one dimension-or the other, rather than a mix of both, that's caused them a lot of grief and, I think, ballgames.
Fantasy-wise, Foster will be a top 5 RB again. Backup Ben Tate is a good RB, seems to have dropped off a bit this season, but holds fantasy value as long as he is getting 2nd team reps.

WR: Every year there is some talk of Andre Johnson's demise, but, not unlike Anquin Boldin in Baltimore, Johnson always manages to produce, and big, when the team utilizes him in the game plan. What I mean to say is the only thing that keeps some players from being the best is the "spread the ball around" mentality big in the NFL these days. If you spread the ball around to people less effective than the one you should be getting the ball to, is it really an advantage to your team? I understand the variety necessary to keep coverages loose, but you have to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. In a sense every man in the NFL is a playmaker, or he wouldn't be there. But coaches know who should be buttering their bread, I think sometimes they try to be too fancy. Anyway, next year in fantasy football Johnson will be a top 5 wide receiver again, it would help him stay there if the team drafted a steady compliment to him. Devier Posey, LeStar Jean, these are guys who do what Johnson does, and not nearly as well. Kevin Walter is what they need more of, or at least, somebody who can do the type of things he is good at, like picking up 4 yards when you need it and moving the chains. For this game I am sure Johnson will be double covered in every passing situation, let's see if the Texans realize this and go to him on running downs. Fantasy-wise for 2013, no Houston receiver other than Johnson is draftable unless a clear-cut #2 emerges in the offseason. If you are gonna place a bet, put it on a draft pick (would be 3rd in 3 years for them) or Posey, who has some flash.

TE: Here is where I think the Texans have their best chance of outwitting the Patriots Sunday. If they can use Daniels and Casey at the same time they can loosen up coverage on the outside for the wideouts and disguise some run plays that much better. They would also have 2 very capable pass-catchers on the field for Schaub to use as outlets when the crowd gets loud in Foxboro. I know we live in an age when everything is specialized and there is a personnel package also in football for every situation. One would think you'd have better success at fooling your opponent if you rarely tip your hand and run the same players and formations all the time, but again, what do I know? Fantasy-wise, for 2013, Daniels will be a middle-of-the-road prospect if he's healthy and can hold off whichever rookie they bring in, I have him now as TE #17.

Defense/Special Teams: As stated, Houston's defense is over-rated as a whole at this point in the season. As goes Watt goes the defense. The special teams is nothing special and will not be a difference maker on Sunday. With some offseason help this team will cement its top 10 status in fantasy drafts in 2013.

Kicker: Shayne Graham is a top-tier kicker and has been playing like a fantasy superstar the last few weeks, not coincidentally because of the Texans' recent failings in the red zone. Still, I wonder if he can kick one to win it with 2 seconds left in a frigid Foxboro. There's no such track record. For fantasy in 2013, you could do much worse at kicker.

II. New England: The Patriots sit yet again as the favorites to win another Super Bowl and, after a week of rest, are coming to play at home to a sold-out crowd. Their defense has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy players in 2012, but is really a mediocre unit when it comes preventing yardage and scores. They have their moments, surely enough to at least slow the opposition down enough so Brady can outscore them. They have also come up big when needed several times this season. The offense needs no mention and consistently puts up points on just about everyone. Don't expect that to change on Sunday.

QB: Why some people don't like Tom Brady (I've even heard "I hate Brady" more than I care to remember) I really can't say, except the obvious: people are jealous of his money, his success, his gorgeous famous wife, and all that, but maybe it's just because he whips these folks' favorite teams all the time. He is a winner, a clutch player, a fiery competitor who hates losing, a leader by example, and a guy you want on your team when you need some fast points. He does have a tendency to seek the man rather than the open route, something all the greats do, and like every QB except perhaps a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, can get rattled in the pocket and be forced into mistakes, but these are all nitpicking when it comes to Brady. He prepares like the best and executes with the best, and to top it off he is a proven multiple Super Bowl winner and sure-fire Hall Of Famer. Fantasy-wise in 2013, he won't be available after QB3 and if he is, sell the farm to get him, as he shows no sign of slowing down.

RB: Stevan Ridley, in my opinion, can be even better than his breakout 2012 shows. Constantly losing carries to Woodhead and others for the sake of Belichick's successful insistence on imbalance probably cost him a couple hundred yards and about 6 TDs. He is not unlike the BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Patriots lost to the Bengals and fills the role well, even if he hasn't proven to be quite as good at the goal line yet. Shane Vereen will also get a carry here and there, but Danny Woodhead is the perennial wildcard that has earned these Patriots a lot of needed first downs, and who has provided many a spark to his team. They have enough to win a ground game, but I am not sure they will have success going that route this week against Houston. Fantasy-wise, Ridley is currently my RB #13, and Woodhead makes an appearance on my 2013 list late, too.

WR: Considering how good this team is and how many points they drop on people you would think this group to be world-beaters, but really they are not. Wes Welker is solid, though not what he once was as far as quicks go, and Brandon Lloyd is a seasoned veteran also who has golden hands, but who disappointed for most of the season before finally coming on strong as of late. I suggest the reason for their comparative small numbers is attributable to the great tight ends on the roster which we shall discuss in a moment. These guys are capable plenty and the Texans better not sleep on them, but they aren't the main threat. For fantasy football in 2013 so far I have Welker ranked perhaps "low" at 15, as I anticipate even further decline, and Lloyd at WR #31.

TE: Here is where the Patriots still kill people. Everyone knows Brady will be looking for Rob Gronkowski around the end zone, and about 20 yards down the seam, they double cover the Gronk, and still it's 6 points on the board. There are just so many weapons here it is difficult to shut the whole team down. You as a defense almost certainly have to rely on 1-on-1 matchup successes or you are doomed, or better rely on luck and a lot of turnovers. To top it off there is Gronk's partner in crime Aaron Hernandez, who when not battling one injury or another is a top 3 or 4 TE prospect himself. Next season in fantasy Gronkowski will likely be drafted again in rounds 1-3, and if he lasts to round 3 he better be yours. Hernandez won't last much longer than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 TDs from the tight end position on Sunday.

Defense/Special Teams: The best you can say is that this defensive unit could be great on Sunday against the Texans. If they are Championship caliber they are barely so, but they should have a strong game on Sunday. They are just not dominant often enough, leaving the offense to have to score a lot of points too often. Their special teams are better than average even if they rarely return kicks for TDs.

Kicker: Gostkowski can hit from 50 in Foxboro and that's good enough. He'll again be a top kicker chosen in fantasy drafts in 2013.

PREDICTED SCORE: I think Houston will come out determined and get some early stops against the Patriots, but they won't be able to keep it up long enough. Expect the Patriots firepower to eventually expose this Houston defense. QB edge to Pats, RB edge to Texans, WRs even, home field to Patriots, defense to Texans, kickers even, big TE edge to Pats. PATRIOTS 38 Texans 23.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Baltimore At Denver

Fantasy football may be over for most of us in 2012, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what goes on the rest of the way. As fans the majority of us will anyway, but the astute fantasy player can gain some good information for next season by making note of how this season will end. First of all let's check the facts as we now have them, make some scouting-type observations on what has so far transpired, then finally offer some predictions for next weekend.

The Divisional Rounds of the NFL Postseason are set for January 12th and 13th, next Saturday and Sunday. There will be four games to decide which teams make it into the Conference Championship Games for both the AFC and NFC, and the winners of those Championship Games will play against each other in Super Bowl XLVII.The remaining teams:

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: BALTIMORE AT DENVER

I. Baltimore: looking unpredictable on offense and improving - or rather getting back to their normal selves - on defense. Struggled for a while today with that Indy defense, but you can't tell much from that as Indianapolis is improving on that side of the ball. But the Ravens' offense should concern this team more than its defense which should be OK now with the return of their main motivator. And always plus one for Ed Reed.

QB: I can understand the problems Ravens management has with signing Flacco long term. When he wants to he can throw one of the prettiest and most accurate balls in the league, he has plenty of arm and enough leadership qualities. He is, however, often inexplicably erratic, basically immobile (and I don't simply mean he is not a a running QB, he doesn't always seem to have that peripheral vision and awareness in the pocket), and will often lead his receivers the wrong direction. Compared to other QBs in the league, though, Flacco's line keeps him standing most of the time; he doesn't take many sacks, and some of this may be attributable to his relatively quick release. Flacco normally provides enough to make it all the way to the Super Bowl, it's 50/50 whether he can do enough on his own to win one. Fantasy-wise, despite a hot start to his season, I don't want him for anything more than a backup. Probably a top backup, but I wouldn't take him for my every-week starter. I'd go gray even faster.

RB: The team must really like what they have found in Bernard Pierce and I tend to agree with their assessment. I am a fan of Ray Rice, and so are the Ravens, yet he lost out on quite a few carries this year to the upstart Pierce who - if he can display some of Ray Rice's long-term durability, may actually be better than Rice. The backs are strong for this squad and provide plenty to win a ground game in these playoffs, with, again, a strong enough defense to support that approach. They should have been used even more the past 6 or so Ravens games. Fantasy-wise, I have dropped Rice a bit in my 2013 Preseason rankings to reflect the reduced workload and passes heading in his direction, and also because we still don't know what kind of offense this will end up being. You could in fact be looking at the next DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart two-headed monster in Baltimore next season. By the way, I think Anthony Allen has never been given as much of a chance as Pierce, but that he is also good enough to start on another football team. Something to look out for if the third-stringer gets traded or released. Whoever it is who has been picking the RBs on this team (Harbaugh? Ozzie Newsome? Vince?) knows what he is doing and can spot talent.

WR: I like the duo of Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, and it's good for the Ravens that they have them because behind the two there isn't a whole lot. To me Boldin is playing as well as he ever has, and when he gets shut out of the box score it's simply because he is not in the game plan and not targeted, but even then he will be out there blocking like a tight end. His speed looks to me same as it ever was, never burning but quick, and he has those nice soft hands. Torrey Smith I think is a good player whose fortunes rise and fall with those of his QB Flacco (see above). When Flacco can hit him open deep, Torrey Smith is a beast. When he can't, sometimes the whole attempt just looks silly. They have enough with the emergence of Pitta to win a game with these receivers, I am not sure they could come back from a more than 14 points deficit very quickly with them. Fantasy-wise, Smith is the DeSean Jackson of the AFC, just a little more durable. I have him ranked slightly ahead of Boldin because I just don't see them giving Boldin more looks in the future. But we'll see.

TE: Dennis Pitta can be one of the best TEs in this league, whether he will or not depends on how the team chooses to use him in the future. Ed Dickson is a capable blocker and adequate receiver but doesn't provide the downfield presence that Pitta does. I see Pitta as a young Jason Witten, if he can stay healthy, improve his blocking, and gain some of Witten's year-to-year consistency. He is probably faster than Witten ever was too. Pitta ranks out to me in fantasy land as a top 10 2013 selection at the position, barring any extreme offensive changes. He could be a difference maker for them this postseason.

Defense and Special Teams: The Ravens return team is one of the best and Jacoby Jones can take one to the house on any kickoff. He is too excitable or my taste, probably the reason he is usually kept on special teams. He has tones of speed and moves, and his hands are good enough, but he runs wrong routes, doesn't block well enough, and lets his emotions get the best of him. He needs meditation, or something like that. He reminds me of Ted Ginn. The Defense as I have already mentioned is good enough to win the Super Bowl, don't listen to the stories of this unit's demise.

Kicker: Justin Tucker is a middling fantasy prospect for me because I don't trust him yet, his recent misses are troublesome. But he has plenty of leg and plays on an offense conducive to kicker scoring. Watch how he does in the offseason and 2013 preseason before making him yours next year.

II. Denver: Peyton Manning has been sitting home drinking Kool-Aid while the wildcard games have been played out because the Broncos earned a bye and get to host the Ravens next weekend. Their defense is playing as well as it has all season, which is about as well as it has the past decade or so. It's amazing what having an efficient QB can do to boost a defense. Rest is a many-splendored thing during a game.

QB: And speaking of quarterbacks, Peyton Manning has ridden his "reduced arm strength" and "reduced accuracy" to a possible league MVP honor in 2012. Not too shabby for a class act with a bad shoulder. I think Peyton is still the Peyton he was with Indianapolis. While this seems a good thing, I have noticed his "happy feet" seem to be increasing, and he has never had too much luck against the Ravens. He will have to deal next weekend with as much pressure as he has all season, but it is doubtful that the Ravens can keep him off the field long enough to render him ineffective. Fantasy-wise, he is still top tier, he just is allowed so much control, and has no fear of tossing it around, that he is still elite in fantasy land.

RB: Good for Knowshon Moreno that he finally been given his chance. He was a great college back at Georgia who got better the more times he touched the ball. Between being wrongly utilized and often injured, and without a strong QB presence to reduce those stacked boxes, Moreno had struggled in the NFL in the past. Add in the presence of the formidable if a bit old Willis McGahee, and overall I am happy for the young man. He definitely has what it takes to lead his team to a victory, in fact I don't think even the Broncos really know yet how good Moreno can be when given the opportunities. He will get those chances on Saturday. Fantasy-wise, I have him ranked just below the sure starters, 21st right now, as there is no telling yet what will happen when (and if) Willis McGahee returns in 2013. Should he be declared the starter and given starter carries, he will emerge ranked between the 11th and 15th RB.

WR: Again, it's amazing what a good QB can do to the stats of your wideouts, too. Both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas had fine seasons and provide more than enough outside weaponry for Denver to win this home game coming up. Decker is a good, savvy WR with not top-off but plenty of speed, good dedication and desire, good hands, and good blocking. He gets a lot of looks from Peyton, and rightfully so, as teams can't cover both him and Thomas with two men each. This seems to me the next big trend in the NFL, that is the acquisition of TWO "Number One Receivers" a la Julio Jones-Roddy White, or what Dez Bryant and Miles Austin were supposed to be. Thomas is very fast downfield, has decent hands, is still learning routes, and has proven to be a bit fragile. Therefore fantasy-wise, for 2013, I have Decker ranked higher than Thomas, and probably higher than anyone, at WR #7. I suspect this could drop over the offseason, but I can't see him as lower than #15 in any case, as long as Thomas is on the other side and Manning is throwing the ball.

TE: Fantasy players in 2012 were a bit disappointed by the Denver tight ends; collectively the production of Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme was pretty impressive, the problem is you can only play one of them at a time, and you never knew which one it would be scoring or even catching the balls on any given week. This too is a tendency in the NFL, the utilization of more players at every position. I would hate it if I was playing, to be taken in and out of a game like that, but what do I know, I don't get paid to coach...but see commentary Moreno, Knowshon, and Rice, Ray above.Some players need to get worked up and into the game. These two, anyway, are not Gronkowski and Hernandez, but they are unpredictable and good enough to make plays and be difference makers on Saturday. Fantasy-wise for 2013, I have them ranked TEs #17 and #18, right next to each other, for now.

Defense/Special Teams: I'm not too impressed with Denver's special teams unit, and this could be a problem for them on Saturday against the Ravens. The defense is playing superb and should stifle Baltimore for the most part. Fantasy-wise for 2013 they will be a top-tier unit.

Kicker: Matt Prater is a decent kicker who doesn't get as many chances as some because of Manning's efficiency in the red zone

PREDICTION: Home field edge to the Broncos, special teams edge to Ravens, kickers about even,WR edge to Broncos, TE edge to Ravens, RBs even for this game, QB big edge to Broncos, Defenses about even. I don't like Manning's playoff record or history against Baltimore, and I expect at least one Ravens TD on special teams somehow. But I trust Flacco in the playoffs even less, so while I will enjoy this game I think in the end the Ravens just won't be able to score enough points to keep up with Manning and the Broncos.
PREDICTED SCORE: Denver 27 Baltimore 20.

Next post, Seattle at Atlanta