NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: SEATTLE AT ATLANTA
I. Seattle: If you were to pick a hot team right now, heading into the divisional round of playoff games, that team would be Seattle. Every season it is not usually the best team all season that wins the Super Bowl but the team that is the playing best at this time of year. Not predicted to do a whole lot before the season began, these Seahawks have surprised everyone and gone so far as to have already won a playoff game. Much of this turnaround has to do with perhaps the most unexpected surprise of the 2012 draft Russell Wilson, and a defense packed with studs in the secondary. As of right now it seems only inexperience can stop this team, that and a shown difficulty playing on the road.
QB: I have been high on Russell Wilson since watching him play his first exhibition game. Not blessed with the strongest arm or extraordinary stature to see over the line, Wilson gets by on guts, guile, quick feet and mind, and a strong desire to succeed. He is a born leader on the field and the game has not proven too fast for him as it has some more famous past rookie QBs. He has shown again the mistakes too many in NFL personnel departments make when evaluating players, that main mistake being relying too much on measurables and stature. This kid can play, and arguably has turned a mediocre team into a very good one. I am rooting for this cat for many reasons, he has a long bright future in the NFL. His being named the starting QB from jump street will go down as one of Pete Carroll's best moves as a coach, and he's made a few of them during his tenure in Seattle. He is a player's coach who knows talent when he sees it, and in Wilson he has found a gem for now and the future. Wilson provides more than enough at the position for the Seahawks to win at Atlanta this week. Expecting even more improvement next season, for fantasy purposes I have him ranked at QB #7 for 2013.
RB: Beast Mode a.k.a. Marshawn Lynch had an even better year than was expected of him, mostly due to his keeping his injuries, especially his chronic back problems, under control this season. He is a nasty running back, running hard and strong and hardly ever going down on the first hit or by arm tackles. Now that his off-field problems are behind him, apparently, his durability is the only issue which remains and which keeps him from being mentioned as one of the top backs in the league. But right now he is that, he provides a horse the Seahawks can ride this Sunday and on into the future. Backup Robert Turbin has also impressed in relief of Lynch this season, and has a future in the league. Fantasy-wise for 2013, because of his heavy workload I have Lynch ranked as my #2 RB for 2013, behind only Adrian Peterson and, yes, ahead of Arian Foster just barely. Barring injury I don't see this changing much during the offseason, but just in case I have also ranked Turbin, whose fringe value right now could elevate to a big payoff should anything happen to Lynch.
WR: Considering his WR talent what Wilson has done is even more impressive. It's not that Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin are bad receivers. In fact I think all three of them are underrated by pro scouts and in fantasy circles. It's just that all of them are fairly similar types, limited route-runners that cannot really stretch the field. While Seattle has used Tate and Rice in this role with limited success, they really don't have that big top-end burner, for example their opponent this week, Atlanta has two of them. In a way this plays to the strengths of Wilson, and perhaps the long bombs were missing rather because of fears about Wilson's arm strength that this crew's ability to get open deep. Rice is a fluid runner with average hands who just gets dinged up too much, this history of bumps and bruises sidelining him has gone on since he Vikings days. When on and healthy he is a very good, if not quite top-tier receiver. He's not much of a blocker and will often give away decoy routes too early. Golden Tate has had his best season to date and has shown a knack for making big catches and difficult catches and probably - despite some conspicuous drops - has the best ball-concentration and hands of the three. He is also probably the quickest in space, and probably, in my opinion, should be playing the slot. Doug Baldwin, a decent receiver in his own right, had a rough year due to injuries and not being all that involved in the game plans. He probably should be moved outside. Bottom line is that there are several possibilities for Wilson on every pass play, none of them the focus enough for them to be keyed on by opponents. So while they aren't on par with the duo they'll face in Atlanta, at least not yet, they will present enough of a mystery to keep Atlanta's defense guessing on passing downs on Sunday. For fantasy football in 2013, I have Rice ranked the highest right now at WR #30, with Golden Tate at #46. I expect some movement during the offseason with these guys, probably both, should they retain their starting roles, will go up in value by kickoff 2013.
TE: This "you'll never know who he'll throw the ball to" mystery progresses on through the tight ends. Zach Miller has come on late and provides perhaps the primary TE target for Wilson, but it just might be Anthony McCoy who makes an unexpected grab. In fact the whole key to Seattle's passing game is the uncertainty about the targets. This could be due to Wilson's ability to go through his mental progressions, that is his mental quickness ability to find the open man and make the decision to let the ball go, or due to a good game plan that spreads the ball around. My guess is it's mostly Wilson with a little bit of gameplan, but then again teams don't usually give rookies many "just hit the open man" options, usually they call the play and have the QB throw to the spot or particular man. Regardless, this unit won't win the game for Seattle on Sunday, but it does provide a very real threat that can easily go under the radar. Especially if Wilson has to run and starts to improvise, both Miller and McCoy could prove to be valuable targets. For fantasy in 2013 this is a situation to monitor, because if one emerges and becomes involved in the offense, that one will have some value for fantasy football draft purposes. I have Miller only ranked at TE #29 right now, that will likely go up during the offseason, but if not, you are looking at value picks here.
Defense/Special Teams: Seattle's defense is now known as one of the best in the league right now and deservedly so. The numbers don't tell the whole story as this unit is blessed with a defensive backfield half of which most teams would pay through the nose for. These dudes are big, fast, hit hard, have attitudes, and haven't even been full strength most of the year. Pete Carroll can also pick DBs. Sherman, Chancellor, Browner, Earl Thomas - they carry this squad, as what's in front of them, with perhaps the exception of Red Bryant and maybe Bobby Wagner, are middling prospects adequate and nothing more. They are backed up by a brick wall, and that makes the linebackers and DL play even better. This week my guess is you will see just how good this defensive backfield of Seattle is: they will be tested, and come out with a passing grade. For fantasy purposes in 2013, they will be the third or fourth squad off the board, rightfully so.
K: Stephen Hauschka was the team's kicker most of the year and did a fine job, he is out for this week and so the the Seahawks have hired on Ryan Longwell for the playoff run. Longwell can still kick the ball, this offense does need a reliable kicker so this is a situation to watch on Sunday, one that could actually be a difference maker. Assuming Hauschka returns to his 2012 form, he should be taken highly in fantasy 2013 drafts.
II. Atlanta: The Rodney Dangerfields of this playoffs, if not the entire season, the Falcons' great regular season success has not translated into much respect in the minds of football commentators or oddsmakers, the latter calling them one of the longshots to win the Super Bowl. I've never been a big fan of Atlanta either, and I also don't quite believe they are as good as their record, but they have me right there on the edge of believerdom. They have what appears to be an accurate passer, a dynamic and perhaps the best pair of wideouts in the league, a thunder-and-lightning running game, and a slightly better than average defense. Their defensive line is very good when healthy but the rest of the defense is adequate at best. It seems that for all their improvement in the offensive side of the ball, the defensive side hasn't gained much. Anyway, to make me a believer they need to win this game on Sunday against the Seahawks. They do that and they just might be for real.
QB: Matt Ryan has it all as far as tools go. He is big, strong, stays healthy, smart, makes good reads, knows the offense, and wants to win. How badly can make all the difference. In many ways for me Ryan is like Matt Schaub in Houston, just going in the opposite direction. Ryan has the same type of questions surrounding him although he, like Schaub, apparently has all the necessary tools. Ryan's limitations, or apparent limitations, are also similar to Schaub's: you don't want to have to rely on his arm to get in the end zone with time running out (though he does seem to be improving in this area); he is basically immobile; and he can be rattled with even the slightest bit of pressure. Neither of them has yet to win "the Big Ones." But as long as Ryan continues to improve - and as long as he has those two big guns on his hips - he is a dangerous man, dangerous on Sunday and dangerous for fantasy purposes in 2013, where I have him ranked higher than ever right now at QB #8.
RB: Most people will talk about how Michael Turner's days are numbered, but his complement Jacquizz Rodgers is as likely to lose yardage as gain it and the rest of the depth behind him is a non-issue. Turner, if not as effective as he once was, still can move the chains, punch it in at the goal line, and keep you honest in the middle. He needs to get heated up, and it is no coincidence that as his carries have declined so has his performance. Turner is the Falcons' best option and will continue to be until this team brings in another bigtime RB. He might have some success on Sunday but don't bet on it as I don't think the mindset of this coaching staff has the patience to go without playing with their big toys. For fantasy purposes in 2013 you can take a chance on Rodgers if you want, myself I'd sooner grab Turner at a bargain price, around RB #20 range.
WR: Here are the big dogs and the primary reason these Falcons had the best record in the NFL in 2012. It is nearly impossible to single-cover either Roddy White or Julio Jones and teams' struggles in trying to do so has allowed Atlanta to have opportunities open up elsewhere, whether for running plays or Tony G. over the middle. They are big weapons these two, White with the better hands and quicks but Jones with the big-league upfield speed and body control. They will challenge and be challenged by the Seattle secondary often this weekend and the battle should be a joy to watch. Both should be taken very highly in 2013 fantasy drafts, I have Jones at WR #8 and White at WR #15, all in all, and again going against the grain, I'd sooner wait and nab White a bit later.
TE: While the Atlanta WRs will be busy battling that formidable Seattle secondary, I expect Tony Gonzalez to become a focal point in this game early and often. Of all the players on the Falcons he is the most responsible for this team's success, and I mean that sincerely. He plays each PLAY, not game, as if it is his last, and he is just as content out there blocking as receiving, where he still draws double coverage as a matter of routine. His hands have natural stickum on them, and he times his jumps to perfection. He is a prototype TE, always has been, and a sure first-ballot Hall Of Famer. He will need to come up huge this weekend for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks, and if he plays in 2013 he will be a top-3 TE in nearly all fantasy drafts.
Defense/Special Teams: The weakness for these Falcons is its defense and minor losses can hurt it considerably. If a questionable John Abraham is limited or does not play on Sunday, for example, this unit could be in more trouble than should reslt from a defense's loss of one starter. Teams have shown this season that you can move the ball on these Falcons, especially when they are starter down, and this might in fact be one reason why Atlanta is not garnering the respect it seems to deserve, that depth issue. Seattle doesn't have a potent offense but they do have an unpredictable and efficient one, and so Atlanta's D will need one of its best games of the year to make it to the NFL's Championship round. For fantasy football in 2013 this unit only has value because of Atlanta's offensive efficiency and nobody should reach to take them, if take them at all.
K: Matt Bryant has been one of the best kickers in the league the past couple of years, but looks like he's on a rapid decline. Battling injuries and missing kicks he would ordinarily make, it is all I can do to call his tryst against Ryan Longwell this week a push. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards until the preseason is about over.
PREDICTED SCORE: Homefield edge to Falcons, QBs even, RB edge to Seattle, defense edge to Seattle, TE edge to Falcons, WR edge to Falcons. looks like Falcons, but I say never mind that SEATTLE 31 Atlanta 30, in a barnburner. Expect some big INTs for Seattle secondary, and some characteristic Falcons coaching staff mistakes, to ice the unexpected win. Seattle loses in all the stats categories, but wins the game. You might be looking at a destiny forged - by the goddess Nike? - for these 2012 Seattle Seahawks.
QB: I have been high on Russell Wilson since watching him play his first exhibition game. Not blessed with the strongest arm or extraordinary stature to see over the line, Wilson gets by on guts, guile, quick feet and mind, and a strong desire to succeed. He is a born leader on the field and the game has not proven too fast for him as it has some more famous past rookie QBs. He has shown again the mistakes too many in NFL personnel departments make when evaluating players, that main mistake being relying too much on measurables and stature. This kid can play, and arguably has turned a mediocre team into a very good one. I am rooting for this cat for many reasons, he has a long bright future in the NFL. His being named the starting QB from jump street will go down as one of Pete Carroll's best moves as a coach, and he's made a few of them during his tenure in Seattle. He is a player's coach who knows talent when he sees it, and in Wilson he has found a gem for now and the future. Wilson provides more than enough at the position for the Seahawks to win at Atlanta this week. Expecting even more improvement next season, for fantasy purposes I have him ranked at QB #7 for 2013.
RB: Beast Mode a.k.a. Marshawn Lynch had an even better year than was expected of him, mostly due to his keeping his injuries, especially his chronic back problems, under control this season. He is a nasty running back, running hard and strong and hardly ever going down on the first hit or by arm tackles. Now that his off-field problems are behind him, apparently, his durability is the only issue which remains and which keeps him from being mentioned as one of the top backs in the league. But right now he is that, he provides a horse the Seahawks can ride this Sunday and on into the future. Backup Robert Turbin has also impressed in relief of Lynch this season, and has a future in the league. Fantasy-wise for 2013, because of his heavy workload I have Lynch ranked as my #2 RB for 2013, behind only Adrian Peterson and, yes, ahead of Arian Foster just barely. Barring injury I don't see this changing much during the offseason, but just in case I have also ranked Turbin, whose fringe value right now could elevate to a big payoff should anything happen to Lynch.
WR: Considering his WR talent what Wilson has done is even more impressive. It's not that Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin are bad receivers. In fact I think all three of them are underrated by pro scouts and in fantasy circles. It's just that all of them are fairly similar types, limited route-runners that cannot really stretch the field. While Seattle has used Tate and Rice in this role with limited success, they really don't have that big top-end burner, for example their opponent this week, Atlanta has two of them. In a way this plays to the strengths of Wilson, and perhaps the long bombs were missing rather because of fears about Wilson's arm strength that this crew's ability to get open deep. Rice is a fluid runner with average hands who just gets dinged up too much, this history of bumps and bruises sidelining him has gone on since he Vikings days. When on and healthy he is a very good, if not quite top-tier receiver. He's not much of a blocker and will often give away decoy routes too early. Golden Tate has had his best season to date and has shown a knack for making big catches and difficult catches and probably - despite some conspicuous drops - has the best ball-concentration and hands of the three. He is also probably the quickest in space, and probably, in my opinion, should be playing the slot. Doug Baldwin, a decent receiver in his own right, had a rough year due to injuries and not being all that involved in the game plans. He probably should be moved outside. Bottom line is that there are several possibilities for Wilson on every pass play, none of them the focus enough for them to be keyed on by opponents. So while they aren't on par with the duo they'll face in Atlanta, at least not yet, they will present enough of a mystery to keep Atlanta's defense guessing on passing downs on Sunday. For fantasy football in 2013, I have Rice ranked the highest right now at WR #30, with Golden Tate at #46. I expect some movement during the offseason with these guys, probably both, should they retain their starting roles, will go up in value by kickoff 2013.
TE: This "you'll never know who he'll throw the ball to" mystery progresses on through the tight ends. Zach Miller has come on late and provides perhaps the primary TE target for Wilson, but it just might be Anthony McCoy who makes an unexpected grab. In fact the whole key to Seattle's passing game is the uncertainty about the targets. This could be due to Wilson's ability to go through his mental progressions, that is his mental quickness ability to find the open man and make the decision to let the ball go, or due to a good game plan that spreads the ball around. My guess is it's mostly Wilson with a little bit of gameplan, but then again teams don't usually give rookies many "just hit the open man" options, usually they call the play and have the QB throw to the spot or particular man. Regardless, this unit won't win the game for Seattle on Sunday, but it does provide a very real threat that can easily go under the radar. Especially if Wilson has to run and starts to improvise, both Miller and McCoy could prove to be valuable targets. For fantasy in 2013 this is a situation to monitor, because if one emerges and becomes involved in the offense, that one will have some value for fantasy football draft purposes. I have Miller only ranked at TE #29 right now, that will likely go up during the offseason, but if not, you are looking at value picks here.
Defense/Special Teams: Seattle's defense is now known as one of the best in the league right now and deservedly so. The numbers don't tell the whole story as this unit is blessed with a defensive backfield half of which most teams would pay through the nose for. These dudes are big, fast, hit hard, have attitudes, and haven't even been full strength most of the year. Pete Carroll can also pick DBs. Sherman, Chancellor, Browner, Earl Thomas - they carry this squad, as what's in front of them, with perhaps the exception of Red Bryant and maybe Bobby Wagner, are middling prospects adequate and nothing more. They are backed up by a brick wall, and that makes the linebackers and DL play even better. This week my guess is you will see just how good this defensive backfield of Seattle is: they will be tested, and come out with a passing grade. For fantasy purposes in 2013, they will be the third or fourth squad off the board, rightfully so.
K: Stephen Hauschka was the team's kicker most of the year and did a fine job, he is out for this week and so the the Seahawks have hired on Ryan Longwell for the playoff run. Longwell can still kick the ball, this offense does need a reliable kicker so this is a situation to watch on Sunday, one that could actually be a difference maker. Assuming Hauschka returns to his 2012 form, he should be taken highly in fantasy 2013 drafts.
QB: Matt Ryan has it all as far as tools go. He is big, strong, stays healthy, smart, makes good reads, knows the offense, and wants to win. How badly can make all the difference. In many ways for me Ryan is like Matt Schaub in Houston, just going in the opposite direction. Ryan has the same type of questions surrounding him although he, like Schaub, apparently has all the necessary tools. Ryan's limitations, or apparent limitations, are also similar to Schaub's: you don't want to have to rely on his arm to get in the end zone with time running out (though he does seem to be improving in this area); he is basically immobile; and he can be rattled with even the slightest bit of pressure. Neither of them has yet to win "the Big Ones." But as long as Ryan continues to improve - and as long as he has those two big guns on his hips - he is a dangerous man, dangerous on Sunday and dangerous for fantasy purposes in 2013, where I have him ranked higher than ever right now at QB #8.
RB: Most people will talk about how Michael Turner's days are numbered, but his complement Jacquizz Rodgers is as likely to lose yardage as gain it and the rest of the depth behind him is a non-issue. Turner, if not as effective as he once was, still can move the chains, punch it in at the goal line, and keep you honest in the middle. He needs to get heated up, and it is no coincidence that as his carries have declined so has his performance. Turner is the Falcons' best option and will continue to be until this team brings in another bigtime RB. He might have some success on Sunday but don't bet on it as I don't think the mindset of this coaching staff has the patience to go without playing with their big toys. For fantasy purposes in 2013 you can take a chance on Rodgers if you want, myself I'd sooner grab Turner at a bargain price, around RB #20 range.
WR: Here are the big dogs and the primary reason these Falcons had the best record in the NFL in 2012. It is nearly impossible to single-cover either Roddy White or Julio Jones and teams' struggles in trying to do so has allowed Atlanta to have opportunities open up elsewhere, whether for running plays or Tony G. over the middle. They are big weapons these two, White with the better hands and quicks but Jones with the big-league upfield speed and body control. They will challenge and be challenged by the Seattle secondary often this weekend and the battle should be a joy to watch. Both should be taken very highly in 2013 fantasy drafts, I have Jones at WR #8 and White at WR #15, all in all, and again going against the grain, I'd sooner wait and nab White a bit later.
TE: While the Atlanta WRs will be busy battling that formidable Seattle secondary, I expect Tony Gonzalez to become a focal point in this game early and often. Of all the players on the Falcons he is the most responsible for this team's success, and I mean that sincerely. He plays each PLAY, not game, as if it is his last, and he is just as content out there blocking as receiving, where he still draws double coverage as a matter of routine. His hands have natural stickum on them, and he times his jumps to perfection. He is a prototype TE, always has been, and a sure first-ballot Hall Of Famer. He will need to come up huge this weekend for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks, and if he plays in 2013 he will be a top-3 TE in nearly all fantasy drafts.
Defense/Special Teams: The weakness for these Falcons is its defense and minor losses can hurt it considerably. If a questionable John Abraham is limited or does not play on Sunday, for example, this unit could be in more trouble than should reslt from a defense's loss of one starter. Teams have shown this season that you can move the ball on these Falcons, especially when they are starter down, and this might in fact be one reason why Atlanta is not garnering the respect it seems to deserve, that depth issue. Seattle doesn't have a potent offense but they do have an unpredictable and efficient one, and so Atlanta's D will need one of its best games of the year to make it to the NFL's Championship round. For fantasy football in 2013 this unit only has value because of Atlanta's offensive efficiency and nobody should reach to take them, if take them at all.
K: Matt Bryant has been one of the best kickers in the league the past couple of years, but looks like he's on a rapid decline. Battling injuries and missing kicks he would ordinarily make, it is all I can do to call his tryst against Ryan Longwell this week a push. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards until the preseason is about over.
PREDICTED SCORE: Homefield edge to Falcons, QBs even, RB edge to Seattle, defense edge to Seattle, TE edge to Falcons, WR edge to Falcons. looks like Falcons, but I say never mind that SEATTLE 31 Atlanta 30, in a barnburner. Expect some big INTs for Seattle secondary, and some characteristic Falcons coaching staff mistakes, to ice the unexpected win. Seattle loses in all the stats categories, but wins the game. You might be looking at a destiny forged - by the goddess Nike? - for these 2012 Seattle Seahawks.
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