NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO
I. Green Bay: I think the big question about this Packers team is how good is it compared to the past couple of years. While the defense played better last week, and better at home overall, I think this unit has slipped a bit and is pretty ripe for the taking on the road. The good news for the defense is that their opponent this week, the 49ers, are in sort of a transition on offense, and so are not large point producers. The Packers offense can score with anyone and on anyone, I do have some questions about the center of that offensive line, but it still keeps Rodgers relatively clean, and in fact sometimes gives him all day to to throw the ball. Much of the reason for that is the plethora of wide receiving threats that have to be accounted for, reducing blitzes and the possibility of bringing extra men after Rodgers.
QB: Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, his stats and winning percentage are undeniable. He is not afraid to wing it and can handle a two-minute drill as well as anyone. He shows good pocket presence, a strong desire to win, and possesses extreme confidence on the field. He has free reign to audible, and passes near the goal line. He stays healthy and has many receiving options to work with, and is always for fantasy purposes the first or second QB taken, and that should remain the same in 2013. As for this season, he started off slowly, has had to live life without Greg Jennings all regular season, and Jordy Nelson for significant portions of it, but still he has managed to steer this team into the playoffs, and keep himself at the top of the statistical categories. Despite all that, I think his numbers are a bit inflated because of those short goal line TDs and Packers' penchant for the pass, especially in the red zone. In saying he can score on anyone, this week he'll have one of his more difficult tests of that theory.
RB: Well what can you say about DuJuan Harris, Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and John Kuhn, other than that if you get to start an entire NFL team's backfield in your fantasy league they're not bad? It appears right now that the team is going to ride Harris, my guess is he'll start this weekend, and possibly in 2013. Grant is purely a stop-gap measure, although don't be surprised if Green is traded or released this offseason, especially if Green Bay goes for a RB via the draft or trade this spring. Kuhn is the designated short-yardage guy and fan favorite, to me he's a luxury to have around for the Packers, a token to use here and there, for show even. The running game on paper looks like a liability going into the Bay, perhaps the Packers might do well to surprise everyone and run it up the guts - or try to - against the Niners on Saturday, because my guess here is the 49ers are preparing for a Rodgers bombardment. Actually, so am I. Fantasy-wise, only Harris appears to be draftable in 2013 right now, but this is certainly a situation to monitor in the coming months, as whoever does emerge as the primary ball carrier will have decent value.
WR: It doesn't get much better at wideout than what the Packers have in stock right now. In fact, one could say there's a little too much seasoning in this receiving pot and that there is too much pressure on Rodgers and the coordinators to keep everyone involved. Jordy Nelson is back I hear, but this season he has tailed off from a remarkable 2011. Injuries and his running mate James Jones have been responsible, speaking of who, is really the main target in crucial situations now, a spot once held by a healthy Nelson. The emergence of Randall Cobb as more than just a kick returner has demanded he see the field often, perhaps more than he has so far. Greg Jennings is back and ready to go, that is, probably go elsewhere in 2013. Regardless, the Pack have the horses to move this wagon for sure, and an accurate gunslinger to fire the ball to them. Even old Donald Driver might get in some playoff catches. They are a load for any team and will be for even that stingy San Francisco defense this weekend. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I have Cobb and Nelson ranked #17 and #18, Jennings at #25 anticipating a new team, and James Jones currently unranked, until I see where he ends up.
TE: I don't know that Jermichael Finley helps so much as just adds another possibility for defenses to have to account for. He is just as liable to drop an easy catch as catch a difficult one, but he's conspicuous and almost always draws people in his direction. He has talent, one wonders how much the nagging injuries he's tried to play through has hindered his overall progress at his position. Tom Crabtree is an average talent who just might be earning more time if Finley doesn't get near his ceiling soon, or perhaps look for the Packers to tend to this position in the draft. My guess is they give Finley another year or two. He could sneak one in this week could Finley, especially if San Fran goes with a lot of blitzing to try and get to Rodgers. Down and out, 52-flat, 10 yards. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I see him as a #20ish TE as of right now.
Defense/Special Teams: In actuality a win against a one-dimensional Vikings offense at home shouldn't qualify your "defense being back" but this is precisely the talk in punditville across the land. Don't you believe it one second. The defense that cometh with the Iceman is a middling unit even when healthy, and especially on the road. They are vulnerable deep and against the run, and my bet is that is what the 49ers try to do. Still, because of their great offense this unit is almost always fresh and still does carry a penchant for the big play. Same with their return unit as long as Cobb is bringing them back. Fantasy-wise they will most certainly be drafted too early, by someone.
Kicker: The team has done the admirable thing and stayed with Mason "Bing" Crosby, but what they are calling a "slump" I'm calling "he'll be gone in 2013." It is entirely possibly that Crosby's woes hurt this team in its playoff run, not a good thing at a time when all points are to be cherished. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards yet.
II. San Francisco: For all their recent struggles on both sides of the ball, this team is still loaded with talent, especially with a defense that can still pack a wallop. If anyone is capable of stifling Green Bay it's still these 49ers, at least in the NFC. They will have their work cut out for them this weekend. Overall I see this team as average on offense, all things considered. Maybe it is true that in the long run the team is better off with Colin Kaepernick at QB, myself I am not sure the Colin-itis will last as long as some believe. If the Niners are to win on Saturday, they are going to have to do it with big plays on defense.
QB: Kaepernick has some talent but also some obvious weak points. He's not a needle-threader, his passes almost always reach the receiver in the wrong spot, and despite 2 years of learning he still has trouble reading coverages. His ball security is not all that great. But the kid is big and strong and can move, you can tell he loves to play, and his arm is plenty strong enough. On this day coming, though. I don't think Michael Crabtree will be left free to roam, and he better be looking elsewhere, that or be prepared to keep a few drives alive with his legs. I am not sure about his long-term potential. My best guess is he stays on and starts next season for the 49ers too. Accounting for some improvement and the nature of his offense, I have him at QB #17 right now for 2013.
RB: Everybody knows about Frank Gore, and he is another player who annually has his retirement papers written for him by the media-drones, but who nevertheless comes back and plays at a high level. He will see plenty of totes this weekend, you can bet the house, and I expect a combination of Gore and LaMichael James for flavor as the Niners try and eat up clock time in this one. Gore is explosive, can hit you inside or outside, and doesn't drop many passes. James hasn't shown me much yet. There is enough here, though, to have some success running the ball on the Packers. For 2013 fantasy I have Gore ranked #18, I expect that number to rise as he cements another starting season.
WR: Michael Crabtree has elevated his game recently, whether because of chemistry building with Kaepernick or because he finally put his head on straight. Beset with problems and injuries since his highly-acclaimed drafting two years ago, he does have the physical talent, when 100% healthy, to be an AJ Green type of player. His problems rather are all mental, he is a way too cocky for what he has accomplished at the pro level, and needs someone to step up next to him. On that note, Randy Moss is being sent as a decoy most plays, but when he's not he's been open, just has had hardly any balls come in his direction. Still, he may do something of a surprise Saturday, but not he, nor anyone else on the current 49ers roster, is that 2nd WR answer. Weakness here almost necessitates a ground game for San Francisco in this divisional round of the NFL playoffs. For fantasy purposes next year, I still can't see Crabtree higher than WR #40, but this number will likely change as the 2013 season approaches.
TE: What has happened to Vernon Davis? Yes he was Alex Smith's favorite safety valve, but still there were many plays designed for him in the past. Lately it has been the slightly quicker, better-handed Delanie Walker making the plays from the line. I look for Walker to get a score in this one, it's too bad the team hasn't figured out a way to get both these guys in at the same time. This can reinforce the opinion that Harbaugh does his best as a coaching motivator, and that his innovations on offense leave a lot to be desired. For 2013 fantasy, I'd probably take a shot at Davis at around TE #12 or so, but it is just as likely Walker passes him up by kickoff 2013. Keep a watch there.
Defense/Special Teams: As I've already mentioned, if the 49ers expect to win they are going to have to do it on Saturday with defense. Their biggest task to date this season is on the horizon, and I think they will step up and make this more difficult for the Packers than most expect. They will be a top drafted unit in 2013 fantasy leagues.
K: David Akers is in a slump and may have hit that proverbial brick wall. Going from being one of the best, most accurate kickers in the NFL, to a shaky proposition almost along the lines of Mason Crosby, can only be attributed to recent injuries and all that mileage. I say he goes good a couple times in this one, but I am sure the team will bring in some competition for him in 2013.
PREDICTED SCORE: I'd like to see the Packers lose, I don't know why but I would, I just am not sure that this present 49ers defense can stop Rodgers for four quarters. I think it will be another very good and close game. QB edge to Packers, RB edge to Niners; WR edge to Packers, TE edge to Niners; Defense edge to Niners, kicking edge to Niners. In an upset, SAN FRANCISCO 30, GREEN BAY 24.
QB: Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, his stats and winning percentage are undeniable. He is not afraid to wing it and can handle a two-minute drill as well as anyone. He shows good pocket presence, a strong desire to win, and possesses extreme confidence on the field. He has free reign to audible, and passes near the goal line. He stays healthy and has many receiving options to work with, and is always for fantasy purposes the first or second QB taken, and that should remain the same in 2013. As for this season, he started off slowly, has had to live life without Greg Jennings all regular season, and Jordy Nelson for significant portions of it, but still he has managed to steer this team into the playoffs, and keep himself at the top of the statistical categories. Despite all that, I think his numbers are a bit inflated because of those short goal line TDs and Packers' penchant for the pass, especially in the red zone. In saying he can score on anyone, this week he'll have one of his more difficult tests of that theory.
RB: Well what can you say about DuJuan Harris, Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and John Kuhn, other than that if you get to start an entire NFL team's backfield in your fantasy league they're not bad? It appears right now that the team is going to ride Harris, my guess is he'll start this weekend, and possibly in 2013. Grant is purely a stop-gap measure, although don't be surprised if Green is traded or released this offseason, especially if Green Bay goes for a RB via the draft or trade this spring. Kuhn is the designated short-yardage guy and fan favorite, to me he's a luxury to have around for the Packers, a token to use here and there, for show even. The running game on paper looks like a liability going into the Bay, perhaps the Packers might do well to surprise everyone and run it up the guts - or try to - against the Niners on Saturday, because my guess here is the 49ers are preparing for a Rodgers bombardment. Actually, so am I. Fantasy-wise, only Harris appears to be draftable in 2013 right now, but this is certainly a situation to monitor in the coming months, as whoever does emerge as the primary ball carrier will have decent value.
WR: It doesn't get much better at wideout than what the Packers have in stock right now. In fact, one could say there's a little too much seasoning in this receiving pot and that there is too much pressure on Rodgers and the coordinators to keep everyone involved. Jordy Nelson is back I hear, but this season he has tailed off from a remarkable 2011. Injuries and his running mate James Jones have been responsible, speaking of who, is really the main target in crucial situations now, a spot once held by a healthy Nelson. The emergence of Randall Cobb as more than just a kick returner has demanded he see the field often, perhaps more than he has so far. Greg Jennings is back and ready to go, that is, probably go elsewhere in 2013. Regardless, the Pack have the horses to move this wagon for sure, and an accurate gunslinger to fire the ball to them. Even old Donald Driver might get in some playoff catches. They are a load for any team and will be for even that stingy San Francisco defense this weekend. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I have Cobb and Nelson ranked #17 and #18, Jennings at #25 anticipating a new team, and James Jones currently unranked, until I see where he ends up.
TE: I don't know that Jermichael Finley helps so much as just adds another possibility for defenses to have to account for. He is just as liable to drop an easy catch as catch a difficult one, but he's conspicuous and almost always draws people in his direction. He has talent, one wonders how much the nagging injuries he's tried to play through has hindered his overall progress at his position. Tom Crabtree is an average talent who just might be earning more time if Finley doesn't get near his ceiling soon, or perhaps look for the Packers to tend to this position in the draft. My guess is they give Finley another year or two. He could sneak one in this week could Finley, especially if San Fran goes with a lot of blitzing to try and get to Rodgers. Down and out, 52-flat, 10 yards. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I see him as a #20ish TE as of right now.
Defense/Special Teams: In actuality a win against a one-dimensional Vikings offense at home shouldn't qualify your "defense being back" but this is precisely the talk in punditville across the land. Don't you believe it one second. The defense that cometh with the Iceman is a middling unit even when healthy, and especially on the road. They are vulnerable deep and against the run, and my bet is that is what the 49ers try to do. Still, because of their great offense this unit is almost always fresh and still does carry a penchant for the big play. Same with their return unit as long as Cobb is bringing them back. Fantasy-wise they will most certainly be drafted too early, by someone.
Kicker: The team has done the admirable thing and stayed with Mason "Bing" Crosby, but what they are calling a "slump" I'm calling "he'll be gone in 2013." It is entirely possibly that Crosby's woes hurt this team in its playoff run, not a good thing at a time when all points are to be cherished. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards yet.
QB: Kaepernick has some talent but also some obvious weak points. He's not a needle-threader, his passes almost always reach the receiver in the wrong spot, and despite 2 years of learning he still has trouble reading coverages. His ball security is not all that great. But the kid is big and strong and can move, you can tell he loves to play, and his arm is plenty strong enough. On this day coming, though. I don't think Michael Crabtree will be left free to roam, and he better be looking elsewhere, that or be prepared to keep a few drives alive with his legs. I am not sure about his long-term potential. My best guess is he stays on and starts next season for the 49ers too. Accounting for some improvement and the nature of his offense, I have him at QB #17 right now for 2013.
RB: Everybody knows about Frank Gore, and he is another player who annually has his retirement papers written for him by the media-drones, but who nevertheless comes back and plays at a high level. He will see plenty of totes this weekend, you can bet the house, and I expect a combination of Gore and LaMichael James for flavor as the Niners try and eat up clock time in this one. Gore is explosive, can hit you inside or outside, and doesn't drop many passes. James hasn't shown me much yet. There is enough here, though, to have some success running the ball on the Packers. For 2013 fantasy I have Gore ranked #18, I expect that number to rise as he cements another starting season.
WR: Michael Crabtree has elevated his game recently, whether because of chemistry building with Kaepernick or because he finally put his head on straight. Beset with problems and injuries since his highly-acclaimed drafting two years ago, he does have the physical talent, when 100% healthy, to be an AJ Green type of player. His problems rather are all mental, he is a way too cocky for what he has accomplished at the pro level, and needs someone to step up next to him. On that note, Randy Moss is being sent as a decoy most plays, but when he's not he's been open, just has had hardly any balls come in his direction. Still, he may do something of a surprise Saturday, but not he, nor anyone else on the current 49ers roster, is that 2nd WR answer. Weakness here almost necessitates a ground game for San Francisco in this divisional round of the NFL playoffs. For fantasy purposes next year, I still can't see Crabtree higher than WR #40, but this number will likely change as the 2013 season approaches.
TE: What has happened to Vernon Davis? Yes he was Alex Smith's favorite safety valve, but still there were many plays designed for him in the past. Lately it has been the slightly quicker, better-handed Delanie Walker making the plays from the line. I look for Walker to get a score in this one, it's too bad the team hasn't figured out a way to get both these guys in at the same time. This can reinforce the opinion that Harbaugh does his best as a coaching motivator, and that his innovations on offense leave a lot to be desired. For 2013 fantasy, I'd probably take a shot at Davis at around TE #12 or so, but it is just as likely Walker passes him up by kickoff 2013. Keep a watch there.
K: David Akers is in a slump and may have hit that proverbial brick wall. Going from being one of the best, most accurate kickers in the NFL, to a shaky proposition almost along the lines of Mason Crosby, can only be attributed to recent injuries and all that mileage. I say he goes good a couple times in this one, but I am sure the team will bring in some competition for him in 2013.
PREDICTED SCORE: I'd like to see the Packers lose, I don't know why but I would, I just am not sure that this present 49ers defense can stop Rodgers for four quarters. I think it will be another very good and close game. QB edge to Packers, RB edge to Niners; WR edge to Packers, TE edge to Niners; Defense edge to Niners, kicking edge to Niners. In an upset, SAN FRANCISCO 30, GREEN BAY 24.
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