Fantasy football may be over for most of us in 2012, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what goes on the rest of the way. As fans the majority of us will anyway, but the astute fantasy player can gain some good information for next season by making note of how this season will end. First of all let's check the facts as we now have them, make some scouting-type observations on what has so far transpired, then finally offer some predictions for next weekend.The Divisional Rounds of the NFL Postseason are set for January 12th and 13th, next Saturday and Sunday. There will be four games to decide which teams make it into the Conference Championship Games for both the AFC and NFC, and the winners of those Championship Games will play against each other in Super Bowl XLVII.The remaining teams:
AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: BALTIMORE AT DENVER
I. Baltimore: looking unpredictable on offense and improving - or rather getting back to their normal selves - on defense. Struggled for a while today with that Indy defense, but you can't tell much from that as Indianapolis is improving on that side of the ball. But the Ravens' offense should concern this team more than its defense which should be OK now with the return of their main motivator. And always plus one for Ed Reed.
QB: I can understand the problems Ravens management has with signing Flacco long term. When he wants to he can throw one of the prettiest and most accurate balls in the league, he has plenty of arm and enough leadership qualities. He is, however, often inexplicably erratic, basically immobile (and I don't simply mean he is not a a running QB, he doesn't always seem to have that peripheral vision and awareness in the pocket), and will often lead his receivers the wrong direction. Compared to other QBs in the league, though, Flacco's line keeps him standing most of the time; he doesn't take many sacks, and some of this may be attributable to his relatively quick release. Flacco normally provides enough to make it all the way to the Super Bowl, it's 50/50 whether he can do enough on his own to win one. Fantasy-wise, despite a hot start to his season, I don't want him for anything more than a backup. Probably a top backup, but I wouldn't take him for my every-week starter. I'd go gray even faster.
RB: The team must really like what they have found in Bernard Pierce and I tend to agree with their assessment. I am a fan of Ray Rice, and so are the Ravens, yet he lost out on quite a few carries this year to the upstart Pierce who - if he can display some of Ray Rice's long-term durability, may actually be better than Rice. The backs are strong for this squad and provide plenty to win a ground game in these playoffs, with, again, a strong enough defense to support that approach. They should have been used even more the past 6 or so Ravens games. Fantasy-wise, I have dropped Rice a bit in my 2013 Preseason rankings to reflect the reduced workload and passes heading in his direction, and also because we still don't know what kind of offense this will end up being. You could in fact be looking at the next DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart two-headed monster in Baltimore next season. By the way, I think Anthony Allen has never been given as much of a chance as Pierce, but that he is also good enough to start on another football team. Something to look out for if the third-stringer gets traded or released. Whoever it is who has been picking the RBs on this team (Harbaugh? Ozzie Newsome? Vince?) knows what he is doing and can spot talent.
WR: I like the duo of Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, and it's good for the Ravens that they have them because behind the two there isn't a whole lot. To me Boldin is playing as well as he ever has, and when he gets shut out of the box score it's simply because he is not in the game plan and not targeted, but even then he will be out there blocking like a tight end. His speed looks to me same as it ever was, never burning but quick, and he has those nice soft hands. Torrey Smith I think is a good player whose fortunes rise and fall with those of his QB Flacco (see above). When Flacco can hit him open deep, Torrey Smith is a beast. When he can't, sometimes the whole attempt just looks silly. They have enough with the emergence of Pitta to win a game with these receivers, I am not sure they could come back from a more than 14 points deficit very quickly with them. Fantasy-wise, Smith is the DeSean Jackson of the AFC, just a little more durable. I have him ranked slightly ahead of Boldin because I just don't see them giving Boldin more looks in the future. But we'll see.
TE: Dennis Pitta can be one of the best TEs in this league, whether he will or not depends on how the team chooses to use him in the future. Ed Dickson is a capable blocker and adequate receiver but doesn't provide the downfield presence that Pitta does. I see Pitta as a young Jason Witten, if he can stay healthy, improve his blocking, and gain some of Witten's year-to-year consistency. He is probably faster than Witten ever was too. Pitta ranks out to me in fantasy land as a top 10 2013 selection at the position, barring any extreme offensive changes. He could be a difference maker for them this postseason.
Defense and Special Teams: The Ravens return team is one of the best and Jacoby Jones can take one to the house on any kickoff. He is too excitable or my taste, probably the reason he is usually kept on special teams. He has tones of speed and moves, and his hands are good enough, but he runs wrong routes, doesn't block well enough, and lets his emotions get the best of him. He needs meditation, or something like that. He reminds me of Ted Ginn. The Defense as I have already mentioned is good enough to win the Super Bowl, don't listen to the stories of this unit's demise.
Kicker: Justin Tucker is a middling fantasy prospect for me because I don't trust him yet, his recent misses are troublesome. But he has plenty of leg and plays on an offense conducive to kicker scoring. Watch how he does in the offseason and 2013 preseason before making him yours next year.
QB: And speaking of quarterbacks, Peyton Manning has ridden his "reduced arm strength" and "reduced accuracy" to a possible league MVP honor in 2012. Not too shabby for a class act with a bad shoulder. I think Peyton is still the Peyton he was with Indianapolis. While this seems a good thing, I have noticed his "happy feet" seem to be increasing, and he has never had too much luck against the Ravens. He will have to deal next weekend with as much pressure as he has all season, but it is doubtful that the Ravens can keep him off the field long enough to render him ineffective. Fantasy-wise, he is still top tier, he just is allowed so much control, and has no fear of tossing it around, that he is still elite in fantasy land.
RB: Good for Knowshon Moreno that he finally been given his chance. He was a great college back at Georgia who got better the more times he touched the ball. Between being wrongly utilized and often injured, and without a strong QB presence to reduce those stacked boxes, Moreno had struggled in the NFL in the past. Add in the presence of the formidable if a bit old Willis McGahee, and overall I am happy for the young man. He definitely has what it takes to lead his team to a victory, in fact I don't think even the Broncos really know yet how good Moreno can be when given the opportunities. He will get those chances on Saturday. Fantasy-wise, I have him ranked just below the sure starters, 21st right now, as there is no telling yet what will happen when (and if) Willis McGahee returns in 2013. Should he be declared the starter and given starter carries, he will emerge ranked between the 11th and 15th RB.
WR: Again, it's amazing what a good QB can do to the stats of your wideouts, too. Both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas had fine seasons and provide more than enough outside weaponry for Denver to win this home game coming up. Decker is a good, savvy WR with not top-off but plenty of speed, good dedication and desire, good hands, and good blocking. He gets a lot of looks from Peyton, and rightfully so, as teams can't cover both him and Thomas with two men each. This seems to me the next big trend in the NFL, that is the acquisition of TWO "Number One Receivers" a la Julio Jones-Roddy White, or what Dez Bryant and Miles Austin were supposed to be. Thomas is very fast downfield, has decent hands, is still learning routes, and has proven to be a bit fragile. Therefore fantasy-wise, for 2013, I have Decker ranked higher than Thomas, and probably higher than anyone, at WR #7. I suspect this could drop over the offseason, but I can't see him as lower than #15 in any case, as long as Thomas is on the other side and Manning is throwing the ball.
TE: Fantasy players in 2012 were a bit disappointed by the Denver tight ends; collectively the production of Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme was pretty impressive, the problem is you can only play one of them at a time, and you never knew which one it would be scoring or even catching the balls on any given week. This too is a tendency in the NFL, the utilization of more players at every position. I would hate it if I was playing, to be taken in and out of a game like that, but what do I know, I don't get paid to coach...but see commentary Moreno, Knowshon, and Rice, Ray above.Some players need to get worked up and into the game. These two, anyway, are not Gronkowski and Hernandez, but they are unpredictable and good enough to make plays and be difference makers on Saturday. Fantasy-wise for 2013, I have them ranked TEs #17 and #18, right next to each other, for now.
Defense/Special Teams: I'm not too impressed with Denver's special teams unit, and this could be a problem for them on Saturday against the Ravens. The defense is playing superb and should stifle Baltimore for the most part. Fantasy-wise for 2013 they will be a top-tier unit.
Kicker: Matt Prater is a decent kicker who doesn't get as many chances as some because of Manning's efficiency in the red zone
PREDICTION: Home field edge to the Broncos, special teams edge to Ravens, kickers about even,WR edge to Broncos, TE edge to Ravens, RBs even for this game, QB big edge to Broncos, Defenses about even. I don't like Manning's playoff record or history against Baltimore, and I expect at least one Ravens TD on special teams somehow. But I trust Flacco in the playoffs even less, so while I will enjoy this game I think in the end the Ravens just won't be able to score enough points to keep up with Manning and the Broncos.
PREDICTED SCORE: Denver 27 Baltimore 20.
Next post, Seattle at Atlanta
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