AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: HOUSTON AT NEW ENGLAND
I. Houston: It's funny that a team that was doing so well has suddenly become a big longshot to even make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The Texans defense is its strongpoint this season, and despite some late-season struggles they still bring some heavy equipment to the field, the primary one being Mr. JJ Watt. It is a luxury for a defense to have guys (or more specifically, A guy) on the D-Line that require a blocking crew of at least two men every play. That Watt also moves around all over the place makes him like a blitzing linebacker in the frame of a defensive end. He is also relentless, and I personally am of the opinion this Texans (or "Texas" as some commentators like Al Michaels call them) team would be no better than 8-8 without him; Watt gets plenty of attention, and when opposing teams have been controlling him they have had some success moving the ball. All in all, this is probably the 4th best defense in this divisional round and no better, and that will make it difficult for them to stop the playoff-seasoned Patriots. On offense, Houston doesn't really scare anyone, and sometimes one has to wonder about the play-calling going on there. It seems as if the team is either in a) Arian Foster mode, or b) Andre Johnson mode, never a nice mix bouncing between their two offensive stars. Think how many times Johnson has had big days when the team bailed on the run, or how many times Johnson was forgotten when Foster was getting major touches. I think the defense is good enough to slow down New England, and I know these Texans can score on New England, if they call the right plays. If they fall behind early big and abandon the run game, I really do think they will have a better chance, by beating that Patriots secondary with Johnson.
QB: Well, I've never been a big Matt Schaub fan, and when you ask me why I find it difficult to explain. I mean you have to give him his due: since he has been a starter (HOU 2007), he is one of the most consistent QBs year to year in the NFL; he's thrown for over 4,000 yards 3 of the last 5 years, and more than 20 TDs 3 of the last 4 years, and the numbers would be better over the last 6 years if not for his missing time in 2011, 2007, and 2008. He is the profile of efficiency. I guess what it is, for me, is that Schaub doesn't seem to have that "just give me the ball and let me win it" attitude. I think as a leader he is too team-oriented almost to a fault. Sometimes you have to lead be example, this is desire as much as playing hard on the field. In short I think the knock on Schaub is he is efficient because he doesn't take enough chances, for fear probably of letting down his team if he fails. I am not saying this is true, I am saying this is what it appears. He seems personable and a nice guy and all, but can you see him saying in the huddle "come on guys, suck it up we need this one"? How about audibling at the line like the Mannings, or even Andrew Luck? He doesn't seem clutch, and is not a guy I want when I need a score with 2 minutes on the clock. But he provides enough efficiency to beat the Patriots secondary on Sunday. Fantasy football-wise, he is a middling prospect, someone always under consideration by those who wait to draft a QB.
RB: Arian Foster is well known in NFL and fantasy football circles alike as one of the best RBs in the league. I agree with that assessment, but much of that is because of the really thin line of superstar runners in the game today. Nevertheless, Foster run smoothly, almost effortlessly, and his true comparison is Eric Dickerson, as Foster runs upright at times, and sometimes even with those Dickerson-like long, high strides; he doesn't so much "hit" a hole as "step through" that hole. One school of thought would say Houston should come out on Sunday and run Foster until New England stops him. Then again, it is this history on offense of one dimension-or the other, rather than a mix of both, that's caused them a lot of grief and, I think, ballgames.
Fantasy-wise, Foster will be a top 5 RB again. Backup Ben Tate is a good RB, seems to have dropped off a bit this season, but holds fantasy value as long as he is getting 2nd team reps.
WR: Every year there is some talk of Andre Johnson's demise, but, not unlike Anquin Boldin in Baltimore, Johnson always manages to produce, and big, when the team utilizes him in the game plan. What I mean to say is the only thing that keeps some players from being the best is the "spread the ball around" mentality big in the NFL these days. If you spread the ball around to people less effective than the one you should be getting the ball to, is it really an advantage to your team? I understand the variety necessary to keep coverages loose, but you have to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. In a sense every man in the NFL is a playmaker, or he wouldn't be there. But coaches know who should be buttering their bread, I think sometimes they try to be too fancy. Anyway, next year in fantasy football Johnson will be a top 5 wide receiver again, it would help him stay there if the team drafted a steady compliment to him. Devier Posey, LeStar Jean, these are guys who do what Johnson does, and not nearly as well. Kevin Walter is what they need more of, or at least, somebody who can do the type of things he is good at, like picking up 4 yards when you need it and moving the chains. For this game I am sure Johnson will be double covered in every passing situation, let's see if the Texans realize this and go to him on running downs. Fantasy-wise for 2013, no Houston receiver other than Johnson is draftable unless a clear-cut #2 emerges in the offseason. If you are gonna place a bet, put it on a draft pick (would be 3rd in 3 years for them) or Posey, who has some flash.
TE: Here is where I think the Texans have their best chance of outwitting the Patriots Sunday. If they can use Daniels and Casey at the same time they can loosen up coverage on the outside for the wideouts and disguise some run plays that much better. They would also have 2 very capable pass-catchers on the field for Schaub to use as outlets when the crowd gets loud in Foxboro. I know we live in an age when everything is specialized and there is a personnel package also in football for every situation. One would think you'd have better success at fooling your opponent if you rarely tip your hand and run the same players and formations all the time, but again, what do I know? Fantasy-wise, for 2013, Daniels will be a middle-of-the-road prospect if he's healthy and can hold off whichever rookie they bring in, I have him now as TE #17.
Defense/Special Teams: As stated, Houston's defense is over-rated as a whole at this point in the season. As goes Watt goes the defense. The special teams is nothing special and will not be a difference maker on Sunday. With some offseason help this team will cement its top 10 status in fantasy drafts in 2013.
Kicker: Shayne Graham is a top-tier kicker and has been playing like a fantasy superstar the last few weeks, not coincidentally because of the Texans' recent failings in the red zone. Still, I wonder if he can kick one to win it with 2 seconds left in a frigid Foxboro. There's no such track record. For fantasy in 2013, you could do much worse at kicker.
II. New England: The Patriots sit yet again as the favorites to win another Super Bowl and, after a week of rest, are coming to play at home to a sold-out crowd. Their defense has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy players in 2012, but is really a mediocre unit when it comes preventing yardage and scores. They have their moments, surely enough to at least slow the opposition down enough so Brady can outscore them. They have also come up big when needed several times this season. The offense needs no mention and consistently puts up points on just about everyone. Don't expect that to change on Sunday.
QB: Why some people don't like Tom Brady (I've even heard "I hate Brady" more than I care to remember) I really can't say, except the obvious: people are jealous of his money, his success, his gorgeous famous wife, and all that, but maybe it's just because he whips these folks' favorite teams all the time. He is a winner, a clutch player, a fiery competitor who hates losing, a leader by example, and a guy you want on your team when you need some fast points. He does have a tendency to seek the man rather than the open route, something all the greats do, and like every QB except perhaps a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, can get rattled in the pocket and be forced into mistakes, but these are all nitpicking when it comes to Brady. He prepares like the best and executes with the best, and to top it off he is a proven multiple Super Bowl winner and sure-fire Hall Of Famer. Fantasy-wise in 2013, he won't be available after QB3 and if he is, sell the farm to get him, as he shows no sign of slowing down.
RB: Stevan Ridley, in my opinion, can be even better than his breakout 2012 shows. Constantly losing carries to Woodhead and others for the sake of Belichick's successful insistence on imbalance probably cost him a couple hundred yards and about 6 TDs. He is not unlike the BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Patriots lost to the Bengals and fills the role well, even if he hasn't proven to be quite as good at the goal line yet. Shane Vereen will also get a carry here and there, but Danny Woodhead is the perennial wildcard that has earned these Patriots a lot of needed first downs, and who has provided many a spark to his team. They have enough to win a ground game, but I am not sure they will have success going that route this week against Houston. Fantasy-wise, Ridley is currently my RB #13, and Woodhead makes an appearance on my 2013 list late, too.
WR: Considering how good this team is and how many points they drop on people you would think this group to be world-beaters, but really they are not. Wes Welker is solid, though not what he once was as far as quicks go, and Brandon Lloyd is a seasoned veteran also who has golden hands, but who disappointed for most of the season before finally coming on strong as of late. I suggest the reason for their comparative small numbers is attributable to the great tight ends on the roster which we shall discuss in a moment. These guys are capable plenty and the Texans better not sleep on them, but they aren't the main threat. For fantasy football in 2013 so far I have Welker ranked perhaps "low" at 15, as I anticipate even further decline, and Lloyd at WR #31.
TE: Here is where the Patriots still kill people. Everyone knows Brady will be looking for Rob Gronkowski around the end zone, and about 20 yards down the seam, they double cover the Gronk, and still it's 6 points on the board. There are just so many weapons here it is difficult to shut the whole team down. You as a defense almost certainly have to rely on 1-on-1 matchup successes or you are doomed, or better rely on luck and a lot of turnovers. To top it off there is Gronk's partner in crime Aaron Hernandez, who when not battling one injury or another is a top 3 or 4 TE prospect himself. Next season in fantasy Gronkowski will likely be drafted again in rounds 1-3, and if he lasts to round 3 he better be yours. Hernandez won't last much longer than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 TDs from the tight end position on Sunday.
Defense/Special Teams: The best you can say is that this defensive unit could be great on Sunday against the Texans. If they are Championship caliber they are barely so, but they should have a strong game on Sunday. They are just not dominant often enough, leaving the offense to have to score a lot of points too often. Their special teams are better than average even if they rarely return kicks for TDs.
Kicker: Gostkowski can hit from 50 in Foxboro and that's good enough. He'll again be a top kicker chosen in fantasy drafts in 2013.
PREDICTED SCORE: I think Houston will come out determined and get some early stops against the Patriots, but they won't be able to keep it up long enough. Expect the Patriots firepower to eventually expose this Houston defense. QB edge to Pats, RB edge to Texans, WRs even, home field to Patriots, defense to Texans, kickers even, big TE edge to Pats. PATRIOTS 38 Texans 23.
QB: Well, I've never been a big Matt Schaub fan, and when you ask me why I find it difficult to explain. I mean you have to give him his due: since he has been a starter (HOU 2007), he is one of the most consistent QBs year to year in the NFL; he's thrown for over 4,000 yards 3 of the last 5 years, and more than 20 TDs 3 of the last 4 years, and the numbers would be better over the last 6 years if not for his missing time in 2011, 2007, and 2008. He is the profile of efficiency. I guess what it is, for me, is that Schaub doesn't seem to have that "just give me the ball and let me win it" attitude. I think as a leader he is too team-oriented almost to a fault. Sometimes you have to lead be example, this is desire as much as playing hard on the field. In short I think the knock on Schaub is he is efficient because he doesn't take enough chances, for fear probably of letting down his team if he fails. I am not saying this is true, I am saying this is what it appears. He seems personable and a nice guy and all, but can you see him saying in the huddle "come on guys, suck it up we need this one"? How about audibling at the line like the Mannings, or even Andrew Luck? He doesn't seem clutch, and is not a guy I want when I need a score with 2 minutes on the clock. But he provides enough efficiency to beat the Patriots secondary on Sunday. Fantasy football-wise, he is a middling prospect, someone always under consideration by those who wait to draft a QB.
RB: Arian Foster is well known in NFL and fantasy football circles alike as one of the best RBs in the league. I agree with that assessment, but much of that is because of the really thin line of superstar runners in the game today. Nevertheless, Foster run smoothly, almost effortlessly, and his true comparison is Eric Dickerson, as Foster runs upright at times, and sometimes even with those Dickerson-like long, high strides; he doesn't so much "hit" a hole as "step through" that hole. One school of thought would say Houston should come out on Sunday and run Foster until New England stops him. Then again, it is this history on offense of one dimension-or the other, rather than a mix of both, that's caused them a lot of grief and, I think, ballgames.
Fantasy-wise, Foster will be a top 5 RB again. Backup Ben Tate is a good RB, seems to have dropped off a bit this season, but holds fantasy value as long as he is getting 2nd team reps.
WR: Every year there is some talk of Andre Johnson's demise, but, not unlike Anquin Boldin in Baltimore, Johnson always manages to produce, and big, when the team utilizes him in the game plan. What I mean to say is the only thing that keeps some players from being the best is the "spread the ball around" mentality big in the NFL these days. If you spread the ball around to people less effective than the one you should be getting the ball to, is it really an advantage to your team? I understand the variety necessary to keep coverages loose, but you have to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. In a sense every man in the NFL is a playmaker, or he wouldn't be there. But coaches know who should be buttering their bread, I think sometimes they try to be too fancy. Anyway, next year in fantasy football Johnson will be a top 5 wide receiver again, it would help him stay there if the team drafted a steady compliment to him. Devier Posey, LeStar Jean, these are guys who do what Johnson does, and not nearly as well. Kevin Walter is what they need more of, or at least, somebody who can do the type of things he is good at, like picking up 4 yards when you need it and moving the chains. For this game I am sure Johnson will be double covered in every passing situation, let's see if the Texans realize this and go to him on running downs. Fantasy-wise for 2013, no Houston receiver other than Johnson is draftable unless a clear-cut #2 emerges in the offseason. If you are gonna place a bet, put it on a draft pick (would be 3rd in 3 years for them) or Posey, who has some flash.
TE: Here is where I think the Texans have their best chance of outwitting the Patriots Sunday. If they can use Daniels and Casey at the same time they can loosen up coverage on the outside for the wideouts and disguise some run plays that much better. They would also have 2 very capable pass-catchers on the field for Schaub to use as outlets when the crowd gets loud in Foxboro. I know we live in an age when everything is specialized and there is a personnel package also in football for every situation. One would think you'd have better success at fooling your opponent if you rarely tip your hand and run the same players and formations all the time, but again, what do I know? Fantasy-wise, for 2013, Daniels will be a middle-of-the-road prospect if he's healthy and can hold off whichever rookie they bring in, I have him now as TE #17.
Defense/Special Teams: As stated, Houston's defense is over-rated as a whole at this point in the season. As goes Watt goes the defense. The special teams is nothing special and will not be a difference maker on Sunday. With some offseason help this team will cement its top 10 status in fantasy drafts in 2013.
Kicker: Shayne Graham is a top-tier kicker and has been playing like a fantasy superstar the last few weeks, not coincidentally because of the Texans' recent failings in the red zone. Still, I wonder if he can kick one to win it with 2 seconds left in a frigid Foxboro. There's no such track record. For fantasy in 2013, you could do much worse at kicker.
QB: Why some people don't like Tom Brady (I've even heard "I hate Brady" more than I care to remember) I really can't say, except the obvious: people are jealous of his money, his success, his gorgeous famous wife, and all that, but maybe it's just because he whips these folks' favorite teams all the time. He is a winner, a clutch player, a fiery competitor who hates losing, a leader by example, and a guy you want on your team when you need some fast points. He does have a tendency to seek the man rather than the open route, something all the greats do, and like every QB except perhaps a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, can get rattled in the pocket and be forced into mistakes, but these are all nitpicking when it comes to Brady. He prepares like the best and executes with the best, and to top it off he is a proven multiple Super Bowl winner and sure-fire Hall Of Famer. Fantasy-wise in 2013, he won't be available after QB3 and if he is, sell the farm to get him, as he shows no sign of slowing down.
RB: Stevan Ridley, in my opinion, can be even better than his breakout 2012 shows. Constantly losing carries to Woodhead and others for the sake of Belichick's successful insistence on imbalance probably cost him a couple hundred yards and about 6 TDs. He is not unlike the BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Patriots lost to the Bengals and fills the role well, even if he hasn't proven to be quite as good at the goal line yet. Shane Vereen will also get a carry here and there, but Danny Woodhead is the perennial wildcard that has earned these Patriots a lot of needed first downs, and who has provided many a spark to his team. They have enough to win a ground game, but I am not sure they will have success going that route this week against Houston. Fantasy-wise, Ridley is currently my RB #13, and Woodhead makes an appearance on my 2013 list late, too.
WR: Considering how good this team is and how many points they drop on people you would think this group to be world-beaters, but really they are not. Wes Welker is solid, though not what he once was as far as quicks go, and Brandon Lloyd is a seasoned veteran also who has golden hands, but who disappointed for most of the season before finally coming on strong as of late. I suggest the reason for their comparative small numbers is attributable to the great tight ends on the roster which we shall discuss in a moment. These guys are capable plenty and the Texans better not sleep on them, but they aren't the main threat. For fantasy football in 2013 so far I have Welker ranked perhaps "low" at 15, as I anticipate even further decline, and Lloyd at WR #31.
TE: Here is where the Patriots still kill people. Everyone knows Brady will be looking for Rob Gronkowski around the end zone, and about 20 yards down the seam, they double cover the Gronk, and still it's 6 points on the board. There are just so many weapons here it is difficult to shut the whole team down. You as a defense almost certainly have to rely on 1-on-1 matchup successes or you are doomed, or better rely on luck and a lot of turnovers. To top it off there is Gronk's partner in crime Aaron Hernandez, who when not battling one injury or another is a top 3 or 4 TE prospect himself. Next season in fantasy Gronkowski will likely be drafted again in rounds 1-3, and if he lasts to round 3 he better be yours. Hernandez won't last much longer than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 TDs from the tight end position on Sunday.
Defense/Special Teams: The best you can say is that this defensive unit could be great on Sunday against the Texans. If they are Championship caliber they are barely so, but they should have a strong game on Sunday. They are just not dominant often enough, leaving the offense to have to score a lot of points too often. Their special teams are better than average even if they rarely return kicks for TDs.
Kicker: Gostkowski can hit from 50 in Foxboro and that's good enough. He'll again be a top kicker chosen in fantasy drafts in 2013.
PREDICTED SCORE: I think Houston will come out determined and get some early stops against the Patriots, but they won't be able to keep it up long enough. Expect the Patriots firepower to eventually expose this Houston defense. QB edge to Pats, RB edge to Texans, WRs even, home field to Patriots, defense to Texans, kickers even, big TE edge to Pats. PATRIOTS 38 Texans 23.
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