NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round RECAP And CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW

Well the NFL Divisional playoffs didn't turn out quite as yours truly expected, as you can see by reading the predictions of the previous few posts, but I think enough points were nailed square on the head to merit another guess at the upcoming NFL Conference Championship games this Sunday. To recap, I incorrectly predicted Seattle to beat Atlanta and Denver to beat Baltimore. I guessed right choosing San Francisco over Green Bay and New England over Houston. In my defense of this sheepish mediocrity - really I think it is an affliction - Seattle had what it took to beat Atlanta and came within seconds of doing so. By the way, if you look at the tape of that game you will see some funny use of the clock by whoever was running it down in Hotlanta. For example, at least 3 seconds elapsed before Atlanta's final kickoff return(er) began running with the ball out of his end zone, and the start of the game clock. On one of Ryan's sideline passes on that final drive, for another example, the receiver was clearly stopped in bounds yet the referee stopped the clock as if the receiver (I think it was Jones) went out of bounds. Anyway, I'm just saying, this strategy almost backfired, as those extra 8 seconds or even more at the end of the game were almost enough to let Seattle have yet one more chance. Yet one more reason homefield is an advantage?

As for Baltimore beating Peyton and the Broncos, I DID say not to count out this resurgent Ravens defense, which did enough to win, and I emphasized the influence of Ray Lewis - who had 17 tackles - as well as mentioned Manning's terrible history against the Ravens. Also a good prediction on the Ravens' special teams production. But, as if called out by my preview of him for that game, Joe Flacco put in an amazing performance, yes it was one of those days I talked about, that when he is on he is really on. I guess I gave too much credit to Denver's defense, which I was sure could stifle what has most of the season been a predictable offense. Perhaps getting rid of their coordinator did some good. That and the motivational skills of Ray Lewis. This game was no surprise to me, I knew Baltimore could win, I just would never have imagined they could win a shootout... in Denver.

So close but yet so far. Let's try again, for Sunday:

I. AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 6:30 PM ET, CBS
These two are somewhat strangers to each other, and this week will mark only the third time the two have met in the postseason since 1996, always at New England. The Ravens handed the Patriots a last-seconds loss back in September in Baltimore, but only once before has Baltimore ever beaten New England, and that was in the 2009 playoffs at Gillette Stadium.

New England plays well at home, but Baltimore fields the type of team to handle both the cold and the crowds in frigid Foxboro. On offense the Ravens should be able to move the ball on New England as least as much as Houston did last weekend, and Baltimore's defense is back in the Big Play department but still giving up a lot of points.

I have two forces pulling on me in my attempt to forecast this game. History is on the side of New England, as is the home field advantage and Bill Belichick. I'd take Brady over Flacco at QB, Rice over Ridley at RB but just barely, call the WRs even, and normally give a big TE nod to the Pats, but that gap, with the news that Gronkowski will be out the rest of the season, closes a bit when it's just Hernandez against Pitta and Dickson. I expect to see more Woodhead than Vereen in this one, and maybe a 12 catch day for Welker running right at Ray Lewis' spot. But I also have that "looks like one for Ray Lewis" feel about it all now, and that complicates matters considerably. It is arguable that no team currently in the playoffs has the entire combination of offense, defense, and special teams necessary on paper to win it all EXCEPT the Ravens. They have the most experience together as a total team, as I think the Patriots' defense is work in progress with almost rotating doors at big positions, and that the 49ers are still adjusting to their new toy on offense. The Falcons defense, to me, while it has demonstrated talent at times (as I mentioned last week, you see what happened when John Abraham had to leave the last game) hasn't yet shown championship caliber cohesion. I would not want them defending my end zone with an opponent needing a quick six.

What to do? Predicted score: RAVENS 34 Patriots 31. And while everyone's going to be talking Ray Lewis, and perhaps rightfully so, I'm only gonna say one thing in support of my prediction: Ed Reed.

II. NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 3:00 PM ET, FOX
Another good game, this one for all the marbles in the NFC. The biggest question here is which Colin Kaepernick will we see? The one from last weekend, when he looked like the second coming of Red Grange, or the one of several weeks ago, when he displayed all the passing accuracy of a drunken Alex Smith? As I said last week in the keys to a 49ers win, Colin had to use his legs, and boy did he, he got more than the first downs I forecasted. And what about the resurgence of Michael Crabtree. Has he finally figured it out? I also said last week that if the Falcons could beat Seattle they would get close to making me a believer, and they have accomplished that. But not with any kind of flair. They won the game, but have erased few doubts about their ability to win The Big One. Perhaps it is best for them this way, maybe the teams playing against Atlanta feel no need to "rise up" against them, which would be a big mistake right now. Atlanta can win it all easily, but can they avoid the mental, coaching, penalty, defensive, and game plan mistakes that almost cost them their game last week?

If you will recall, Seattle flambayed the 49ers in San Francisco's final regular season road game. Yes Seattle's D shut down the 49ers offense, but Kaepernick wasn't all that impressive when he had to put the ball in the air, and like Matt Ryan last week, was seriously outplayed by Russell Wilson in that one. But then again, this is an Atlanta team that got pretty beaten by the Bucs, at home, not a few weeks ago.

When it comes down to it, I don't think either of these teams will be able to beat the winner of the AFC title game, but stranger things have happened. In this one, I don't think Kaepernick can do it alone, but Frank Gore will test again that Falcons defense that did a number on Lynch last week. QBs EVEN for this one, WR edge to Falcons, RB edge to Niners, TE edge to Falcons, defense edge to Niners, homefield to Falcons, kicker to Falcons....wow, looks like (Predicted Score...) ATLANTA 24 San Francisco 20.