FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES AT THE URFL READY TO ROLL!

I've set up a few leagues to get started in 2013. The ones available right now are pretty early drafts so require a bit of planning, but can satisfy that urge for July. I'll be putting up more and higher dollar leagues in the coming weeks as needed.

Notice all the leagues are named after undrafted NFL stars.

To join a league, email me boss@ursheep.com, or use the JOIN US button to send a message through here. I'll contact you ASAP with your league assignment confirmation. We'll worry about franchise fees after your league is full. Franchise fees will be made via Leaguesafe.com and winnings paid out the same way BEFORE the NFL Super Bowl.

Be sure the read the rules in the URFL LEAGUES tab above, the actual available leagues are listed in a table just below them. You also might want to read some of my early posts about why I started this website. I have dozens of references of people who have played in the past and in fact I've been running a couple of private leagues, not listed here, for the past 11 years.

If you find higher payouts anywhere, you let me know, so I can play there instead. As is, after almost 15 years online, I know my payouts are higher than anyone's.

Any questions feel free to email me.

Let's kick it off!

Angelo
boss@ursheep.com

PPR Fantasy Football Leagues and DROPS

Point-per reception leagues are extremely popular variations of standard fantasy football leagues. These PPR leagues most often score one point per each reception made. It is a fun and exciting variant on the traditional game, and has a long tradition of its own.

Drafting for PPR leagues is a bit different because of this one extra point per catch. Determing at what point TDs and yardage is worth more than dink-and-dunk grabs is one reason for the intrigue. It takes a bit more thought, as well as knowledge of stats, NFL team gameplans, and so on, to succeed in a PPR league. Too much emphasis on chasing receptions inevitably leads to letting other talent go by, but at the same time if you ignore the PPR, you're going to be angry when the 6 receptions for 40 yards stat line beats your TD and 30 yards. PPR is, in a way, a whole different beast.

If you're familiar with PPR leagues, I've already said too much, so let me get to the point. That is, to the MINUS one point. I believe that in PPR leagues any dropped pass should be a negative (-1). If a player is going to be rewarded for a catch, most of which are routine grabs, he should as well be penalized for failing to snag catchable passes. A drop should cost you.

Most fantasy league hosts do not yet offer a minus one. When it becomes an option I will utilize it for some leagues. It's now June, so I'll start setting up more leagues soon. Email me or use the button above to reserve your spots. I'll also take requests for buddy leagues if you have some people you want to play with in the same league.

Fantasy Football 2013: Team Power

In fantasy football you don't always take the best players.

Deciding which NFL players to draft for a fantasy football team is the first prerequisite for success. Many enthusiasts of the fantasy ball like to think this-or-that strategy is best, and follow it like a map to secret treasure, often guarding the strategy as they would such a map. Even some writers in this genre will hold back a trick or two, and deviate from their list they have rewritten 37 times since June, come draft time.

Few approaches to drafting are more popular than the theory which says you should select for your fantasy team those real-world NFL players who are the most talented. Rather than carry this out to a treatise laden with history and probabilities for proof, let me just say that no matter how talented any player is, that player must get chances for him to help your fantasy team. It is therefore opportunity, and not talent, that should be the first guide for your draft day selections.

This in mind, it may be beneficial to grade overall team abilities and strengths. Some teams pass well, and they usually boast three or even four pass catchers who are draftable in fantasy, because all of them get ample opportunities. Even the second string WR, however, on a run-first team, is a risky proposition. The same is true in the converse: the Packers running backs as a group have not been very successful since the team began passing most of the time, for example, and the same is true of the Saints. Here then is a list of each team with two grades. The first grade is overall offense rating. This is derived from speed of the offense, offensive efficiency, and amount of time it spends on the field, opening up opportunities for its fantasy players. The second grade is the passing offense, and the third is for the rushing offense. When choosing your players during your drafts this year, and you are undecided between two players when your choice comes, your best bet is to pick the one whose offense gives the most chances to players at his position.

The grades are based on projected starting rosters. Exceptions are noted below each division.

New England Patriots: Offense A; Rushing B Passing A 
Miami Dolphins: Offense C-; Rushing C Passing D 
New York Jets: Offense C; Rushing C Passing C 
Buffalo Bills: Offense C; Rushing B Passing C-
-Notes: Dolphins hope WR moves pay off but will they with Tannehill under center and the slow pace of that offense...Geno Smith can help raise both Jets grades by himself, if he is up to the task...I like Spiller and Jackson in Buffalo but they lose points as I'm not sure if Manuel is an upgrade over Fitzpatrick.

Houston Texans: Offense B+; Rushing A Passing B
Indianapolis Colts: Offense B; Rushing C Passing A
Tennessee Titans: Offense C; Rushing B Passing C
Jacksonville Jaguars: Offense D; Rushing B Passing D
-Notes: Assuming Colts offense stays the same...if Fitzpatrick wins the job in Tennessee the passing grade goes up one letter, same thing if Henne wins it in JAX.

Baltimore Ravens: Offense B; Rushing A Passing C 
Pittsburgh Steelers: Offense B; Rushing B Passing B
Cincinnati Bengals: Offense B; Rushing C Passing B+
Cleveland Browns: Offense C; Rushing B+ Passing C
-Notes: Assuming Bell wins the RB job in PIT, and Weeden improvement in CLE.

Denver Broncos: Offense A-; Rushing B+ Passing A  
Kansas City Chiefs: Offense C; Rushing B+ Passing C 
San Diego Chargers: Offense C-; Rushing D Passing B
Oakland Raiders: Offense D; Rushing D Passing D
-Notes: If Wilson wins the QB job in OAK, up the passing grade one letter.

Dallas Cowboys: Offense B; Rushing C Passing A
Washington Redskins: Offense B+; Rushing A Passing B 
New York Giants: Offense B; Rushing C Passing B+
Philadelphia Eagles: Offense C-; Rushing B- Passing D
-Notes: Assuming Griffin plays all year and Wilson starts in NY. If Brown gets more carries for the Giants, raise the grade 1/2 a letter...also assuming Vick wins the job in Philly...if Barkley takes over rather than Foles (eventually), raise the passing grade one letter...not sure yet about the tempo in Philly.

New Orleans Saints: Offense B+; Rushing C+ Passing A 
Atlanta Falcons: Offense B; Rushing B- Passing A-
Tampa Bay Bucs: Offense B; Rushing A Passing B-
Carolina Panthers: Offense D; Rushing C- Passing C-
-Notes: Counting Cam Newton in both categories, which is part of the low grades...it's not a matter of talent there, rather line play and execution, also SLOW SLOW SLOW.

Green Bay Packers: Offense B+; Rushing C Passing A
Minnesota Vikings: Offense B-; Rushing A Passing D
Detroit Lions: Offense B; Rushing B Passing A-
Chicago Bears: Offense C; Rushing B Passing D
Notes: Love Brandon Marshall but he can't save Cutler and the passing game himself for this grade. Being gratuitous with DET RB grade because I like their depth and pace of play.

San Francisco 49ers: Offense B; Rushing B Passing B
Seattle Seahawks: Offense A-; Rushing A- Passing A-
St. Louis Rams: Offense C; Rushing C Passing C
Arizona Cardinals: Offense C; Passing B+ Rushing C
-Notes: If Stepfan Taylor gets the feature back role in ARI, raise their rushing grade to a B+...raise the Rams RB grade to a B if its Zac Stacy there.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC South

AFC South

Houston Texans: A strong team got even stronger through a pretty good draft. As a team, though, you have to question what it will take to make the next step, a leap forward many have predicted the last three years. They need to go from contender to Super Bowl. This draft was so good you could make the argument that they now have all the pieces and this is the year. Doubts still linger, though. Can Matt Schaub win the big ones, under pressure? Is the back end of that defense shored up enough to prevent late comebacks by Texan opponents? Can they find somebody to take at least some pressure off of Andre Johnson?

DeAndre Hopkins, the team's first pick, has the attitude and second gear (both during a play and through a game) to be a difference maker, and is a perfect downfield threat as Andre Johnson now  becomes more of a possession receiver, albeit a dandy one. With Owen Daniels in the middle this offense is now locked and loaded. Can Schaub deliver the football, and is Kubiak aggressive enough to speed up the tempo? DJ Swearinger, I swear (as does he), will be an impact player at the NFL level. Both these first picks reflect aggressive attitudes, which is exactly what this team needs, more JJ Wattishness. But again, will the head coach unleash the fury that this team could be? This may be his last chance so he should come out swinging. Third selection Brennan Williams will help the OL. Sam Montogomery was a steal at pick #95, if he can stay focused that Texans DL could be monstrously disruptive. Trevardo Williams ensures depth on the edge. I liked this draft except for the Round 6 picks, as I believe there was better value to be had from a talent perspective, which is what you're looking for in late round fliers. Grade: A-

Fantasy Implications: Hopkins should win the Houston #2 WR job. Historically, that status has not been a very lucrative fantasy goldmine, however, it is arguable that the Texans have never had anyone of the caliber of The Cannibal at WR #2. This, coupled with the attention still given Johnson, makes Hopkins someone very draftable, but proceed with caution. Remember he still has to beat out last year's draftees. In the best case scenario for Hopkins, he becomes the next Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Coming into this draft, up-and-coming Colts had a few problem spots to address, especially on the interior of the offensive line. They also needed an upgrade over departed Dwight Freeney, to put some more pressure on the passer and help out in run situations. The secondary is also a work in progress. It should be noted that the Colts had been active in free agency in the months prior to the draft, signing journeymen center Samson Satele, guard Donald Thomas, and tackle Gosder Cherilus, among others, to try and fortify that line for Andrew Luck. On defense, the offseason brought Aubrayo Franklin, Vontae Davis, and LaRon Landry. To say that the Colts defense will have a different look in 2013 is an understatement. All of these defenders, and probably all the linemen too, will start for the team. In a way, the Colts used free agency as a draft, especially considering the players they picked up.

As for the draft itself, they got a raw but possible difference maker at DE by picking Bjorn Woerner. Scouts were all over the place on this kid, but he is relatively new to the game, yet is aware of many of its nuances. It also helps that he has played with some of the best players in the country, and against some of the best in all the land. He will start right away, soon getting more playing time than Ricky Jean-Francois, and definitely part of any rotation. They simply need him to play, don't be surprised if they move him, or someone else around, to keep him on the field all three downs. Hugh Thornton plays with heart and motor but was a bit of a reach with the team's 3rd Round pick. Khaled Holmes, selected in Round 4, is a much better pick, but both these linemen are versatile and should settle in somewhere in short order. Montori Hughes was an excellent value pick in Round 5. Yes, the team went directly for needs, ignoring more talented players at other spots, and apparently confident that Davis and  Landry have fixed the leaky secondary. But they were solid picks in any case, showing an attempt to fortify the toughest spots to fill. If you don't value DBs very highly....Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Andrew Luck's value goes up. He was awful good last year. Considering he had no time to throw the ball on too many occasions, usually due to unacceptable pressure directly up the middle (the hole still left behind by Jeff Saturday), if these draft picks, and free agents, can help seal those seams just a second longer, Luck becomes one of the top five fantasy QBs in 2013, regardless of how many games the Colts win or lose, bet on it. Other than that, Kerwynn Williams has some talent, but he is raw and still learning the position, it will take a lot for him to unseat Donald Brown as Vick Ballard's backup. Williams might make Delone Carter and Deji Karim expendable, though.

Tennessee Titans: Another team with many positions of need is the Tennessee Titans. It is true, as many have already said, that problems up front on the line, lack of pressure on the QB, bad tackling, the lack of leadership on both sides of the ball, and many similar problems exist on this team, and it will indeed take more than this draft to deal with all of them and make the Titans a contender. Yet, I like the fact that this team is taking its lumps while building from the inside-out, that is, by trying to strengthen the trenches first. In fact this is the Titans' really main deficiency. Their offense is decent even with Locker or Fitzpatrick behind center, and their skill position players are pretty darned good. The defense needs a linebacker or two and some DB help, but all in all it caused quite a few turnovers last year, and had its moments.

The Tennessee draft, with the exception of the choice of WR Justin Hunter in Round 2, tried to directly address the team's starting lineup needs. Hunter was a luxury pick, perhaps Kenny Britt insurance. I like the potential, but not with other more pressing needs. Chance Warmack will start in short time and try and help give Fitzpatrick more than 2.4 seconds to throw. He was a solid pick at #10, slightly higher than he should have been selected, but the Titans needed him, and Munchak, perhaps justifiably, will always defer to linemen in a push. Bidi Wreh-Wilson will get playing time also, there is no telling yet how much. He, too, was selected slightly higher that he should have been, again because of need, but also because of the run on DBs. Their second Round 3 pick, and their picks in Rounds 4 and 5, are where the Titans flexed their draft acumen. Zaviar Gooden will make a veteran expendable at LB, as will Brian Schwenke on the OL. Lavar Edwards, a DE/LB tweener, is a poor man's Dion Jordan, a steal in the 5th Round, and a starter by season's end. Grade: B, would be a solid A had they grabbed a pass rusher instead of Hunter.

Fantasy Implications: Hunter, who will be at least a WR #3 on this team.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will be new-look in more ways than one in 2013. One thing is for certain. The draft has come and gone and still the starting QB job will come down Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, as the Jags didn't even point in the general direction of a signal caller. Interesting facts about Blaine Gabbert have recently come to light, such as which mostly say that his sub-par play so far has been more due to the inefficiency of his offensive line than his accuracy and decision-making. But time to throw is not all about the line. Little sidesteps and movements while in the pocket, which actually open up the pocket and give the blockers time, were absent from Gabbert's game. When he got thrown off his reads, his movements and decisions were routinely the wrong ones. His peripheral vision is Kevin Kolb-like, and very minimal. He locks in on his intended receivers, leading not only to incompletions and interceptions, but also to clues picked up on by all the defenders. This, in turn, makes it difficult to sustain a block. All this to say the Jags will struggle again under Gabbert, and I am not even sure his teammates are on board. I fully expect to see Henne play before the halfway point of the season, for the simple reason that he has better pocket presence and awareness.

So, the big story being the Jaguars NOT choosing a QB, what did they do with their eight picks? Luke Joeckel is a good pick no matter what, they almost had to take him. John Cyprien could turn out to be the top DB in this entire draft class, unheralded a bit being from a smaller school, but a machine in the defensive backfield and a playmaker as well, He might need a bit of help with learning coverage schemes, but he has the heart and the tools to pay big dividends for the Jaguars quickly. Dwayne Gratz will also contribute immediately, will struggle a bit, but will play anyway. Ace Sanders will probably play special teams or return kicks, but the WR chosen one pick later, Denard Robinson, could be opposite Cecil Shorts sooner than later, and was probably a better selection. Obviously Jacksonville didn't need two WRs, but rightfully they snagged an available Robinson. I like Josh Evans, too, and consider him a steal in Round 6. Grade: A, and probably wise to wait until 2014 to bring in a rookie QB.

Fantasy Implications: Sanders and Robinson could be factors, especially Robinson. He has Percy Harvin-like versatility. Considering Justin Blackmon's problems, Massaquoi's ineffectiveness, and Shipley's slowing down and aging, by necessity alone either one or the other could contribute quickly. Just remember who is throwing the ball. The fortunes of the Jaguars WRs will rise as soon as Henne gets the starting job.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC North

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens wasted no time in replenishing their depleted defense. With the luxury of an adequately stocked offense, this team used their selections expertly to maximize their draft and take players who can help immediately. Matt Elam, with the possible exception of Kenny Vaccaro, was the best safety in the draft, and Arthur Brown, grabbed in Round 2, will start immediately at linebacker. Brandon Williams, who has gone from cleaning Port-O-Lets to nose tackle in the NFL, can be considered a steal at Pick #94 in the third round and, with Brown, can help ease the pain of losing Kruger. Even tackles Ricky Wagner and Ryan Jensen could be impact assets.

Ozzie Newsome knows talent and it's difficult to question someone with his track record. I liked this draft, with some caveats. Is second-year man and brother of QB Bruce, Gino Gradkowski, the answer at center, after the retirement of Matt Birk? Apparently the Ravens think so, choosing to avoid the position in the draft. Certainly one of the tackles they took would better have been an interior lineman or center? Also, Aaron Mellette is the only WR they selected. He is a Boldin-type player, without deep speed but with good hands and ability to separate with his body, and it is very possible the best GM in football has unearthed another small-school gem. However, given the departure of Anquin Boldin this puts a ton of faith on Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss. I also think the Ravens could have traded out of Round 1 completely, and that Elam, while he should be a star, could have been had more towards the middle of Round 2, and the team might have gained a pick in the process. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: The Ravens D should be different, but just as good, if not better, than they were in 2012. They still merit a top-10 defense/special teams pick, top 5 if Jacoby Jones continues to return kicks, not a given considering their WR situation. In my opinion, and looking at the roster, the Ravens will play quite a bit of two-TE sets in 2013, utilizing Pitta and sometimes Dickson as receivers. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (4th Round compensatory pick) could see the field in an H-back type role, and in passing situations, but is no fantasy factor and might not do anything other than work special teams. I have a strange feeling Baltimore drafted Mellette to replace Boldin, keep him on the radar. He has all the ability to beat out underachieving Tandon Doss for the #3 WR role, and could in fact be a better every down complement to Torrey Smith; Jacoby Jones is more suited as WR #3 and kick returner.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are on the rise, and things have been looking up mostly due to this team's strategy of taking the "best available player," usually regardless of position or need. Their 2013 draft was no different, but this time I think they should probably have deviated from their recent strategy. Don't get me wrong, most of their selections were good ones. Giovani Bernard was one of the best backs (#5) on my board, and addresses a need. With a little coaching up by the best, Margus Hunt (6'8", 280) is a monster of a man that will pay JJ Watt-like dividends in short order. Shawn Williams can, and should earn at least a nickel role in the Bengals' secondary. Sean Porter is under-rated and will start immediately, he needs to play with more of an edge, but is a textbook LB; even Reid Fragel, drafted in Round 7, will stick and see playing time. 

The draft, on the whole, was awesome, enviable for many teams. My one problem is with choosing Tyler Eifert with Pick #21. Unless you envision surely you have the next Rob Gronkowski (hopefully, with better durability...) at TE available to you, you should NEVER draft a TE, in the NFL, in Round 1. The justification is this: since 1990, 23 TEs have been chosen in either Round 1 or Round 2 of the NFL draft; of these, Reggie Johnson, Derek Brown, Irv Smith, Lonnie Johnson, Cameron Cleeland, Rickey Dudley, Bubba Franks, and Reggie Kelly certainly did not live up to their draft positions. For Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, Kyle Rudolph, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen, the jury is still out. In 23 years, then, less than half of the TEs selected in Rounds 1 and 2 of an NFL draft could be said to have had any success worthy of their draft position. Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, and Tony Gonzalez were the only real hits. You could argue for the likes of the remaining guys - perhaps Eric Green, Kyle Brady, Jeremy Shockey, or Todd Heap - being successful, but remember they came at the expense of high draft picks, where you want a high success rate. Also note there is no mention of Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez, or Gronkowski, all of whom were later round selections. With all the hype, Eifert was destined to be a Round 1 pick. I just wouldn't have been the team to do it. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: Bernard has the talent to win a starting job away from Green-Ellis, but the law firm should still retain his short yardage and goal line duties in 2013, even given this best-case scenario for Giovani. Eifert will probably see the field in double TE sets and is worth a flier as a TE2, but no better, as long as Gresham is still around. It is possible he wrests the job away from Gresham, but not likely. An injury to Gresham, however, could open the door to Eifert's potential. He will be on the field in any case, how much is the question.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The black and gold always draft well, and this year was no exception, it is the key reason why Pittsburgh only rarely finds themselves out of contention come December. With more needs than usual, due not in the least to the losses of Mike Wallace and James Harrison, as well as declining play from Troy Polamalu, the Steelers had their work cut out for them, and came through with a very nice draft. 

With the selection of LeVeon Bell in Round 2 they grabbed the co-best RB on my board (with Monte Ball), and one with more breakaway ability. Jarvis Jones is an NFL-ready linebacker that fits into the types of things Pittsburgh has its LBs do. Markus Wheaton will attempt to replace Mike Wallace, and has the speed to do so. Shamarko Thomas is short but stout and a gamer that will start sooner than later. Even Landry Jones was a great pickup at QB, given their situation  with Big Ben. Overall a nice draft, I would have liked to see some more pizazz in the later rounds, and maybe some more trading of picks. Still, the top four picks are instant starters and fulfill needs. Jones could stick as Big Ben's successor. Terry Hawthorne has what it takes if he can refine his coverage skills. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: Markus Wheaton and LeVeon Bell will be well-known fantasy names by the end of this season. Bell only has to beat out the likes of Isaac Redman, and possibly Jonathan Dwyer, to win the starting Steelers RB job, historically and actually a lucrative fantasy goldmine. Helping his cause is the fact that head coach Mike Tomlin is no fan of the "backfield by committee" approach to running the football. Still, tread with a bit of caution, but be advised if you wait too long in your fantasy draft Bell will be gone, some time shortly after Chris Johnson goes. He bears watching very closely this preseason. Wheaton has just as large an opportunity. It's no secret that this young man was drafted to fill Wallace's shoes, and he will need to be successful soon. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown do not scare anyone by themselves, they need that vertical threat and, barring any trade for a WR, Wheaton is now it. 

Cleveland Browns: With only five picks in the 2013 draft the Browns had to make them count. Heading in the right direction, the Browns' only real question mark, on paper, was at the QB position (Rams and Dolphins being in a similar state), but like Miami QB was not addressed through this draft at all. I actually prefer Weeden to Campbell, and to Tannehill, for that matter, and while the team declares the position open, the draft indicates it will be Weeden taking the snaps in Cleveland. 

Barkevious Mingo is expected to be the next Jason Pierre-Paul, so say the pundits, but his college track record is nothing special. To me, he is too risky to take with the 6th overall selection, especially in a draft that was rich with big defensive linemen. Regardless, he will get time on the edge, especially on passing downs. Leon McFadden is Round 3 was excellent value, and he should earn a starting job and succeed in the NFL. In fact, I predict his presence will help make Cleveland's one of the better defenses in 2013. Don't be surprised if it is late-rounder Armonty Bryant who provides the real power off the edge, he's not as fast as Mingo, but is heavier and is an excellent value grab late. All in all an average draft. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: I like the defense in 2013, and they will be a top-15 squad if the offense helps out more than it did last year. Other than that, no fantasy possibilities came through this draft.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC West

AFC West

Denver Broncos: The immediate contributions by the Broncos' first two picks will define this draft. Sylvester Williams was a good grab that should help ease the pain of realizing Elvis has left the building. They also, in my opinion, took the co-best RB (1A with LeVeon Bell) available in this draft by selecting Monte Ball. The fact that these picks were made late in both Rounds 1 and 2 makes them even better choices.

With the exception of Quanterus Smith, who might surprise everyone and be on the field as much as Sly Williams in 2013, the rest of the Broncos' draft is no better than average. They could have had Kayvon Webster in the 5th round, for example. Zac Dysert is an intriguing pickup, he is fully able to win the backup job to Manning, just don't expect Peyton to be a willing mentor. Grade: C

Fantasy Implications: Dysert, no matter what he does, will never see the field as long as Manning is upright. But keep an eye on him. The position to watch here is at RB, where Monte Ball has the skills to be a good full-time runner for this team. He is a natural workhorse back not unlike Knowshon Moreno was, only with better durability. That same Moreno, as well as (currently) Willis McGahee, and Ronnie Hillman, are all that stand in the way of Ball and a full-time job. I don't think the Broncos drafted Ball in Round 2 to play special teams, return kicks, or sit and learn. I believe they will play him, the question is, who else will get carries besides Ball? If I had to gamble now, I say they keep all four backs, unless they can trade one of the other three for a pick. Hillman is undraftable in fantasy in 2013 regardless of what happens, he is thought of by the team as at best a change-of-pace guy. Moreno is a good back, always has been, but has struggled to adjust to coming off the field in the pros; he is used to playing every down, and needs to get warmed up to be most effective, in fact I believe this going from full-time to part-time has contributed to his injury problems, and you see how much better he played when given the opportunity to be a three-down back last season. McGahee might have some left in the tank, but that remains to be seen, he was wearing down before last year's injuries and he could also be released. If I ran the team I trade or release McGahee OR Hillman, ride Moreno and groom Ball for the role. Definitely keep an eye on how this shakes out. Tavarres King is a decent WR, but there would have to be an injury for him to see much game time. He could return kicks, though.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs could have used their top position to acquire a few strategic pieces in the draft. This team's roster is talented and much better than last year's record would indicate. Drafting left tackle Eric Fisher number one overall is a case in point. They already had (and as of today still have) a good starting left tackle in Branden Albert, yet the team drafted as number one overall a starting left tackle anyway. Apparently owner and staff felt there were no positions of greater need, that's how talented is the roster.

In fact, over-estimating the talent of the players on this roster may have played a part in the Chiefs' very pedestrian draft. Kelce at TE is ignoring greater needs but is a decent pick in Round 3, Knile Davis is overrated at RB and probably could have been had two rounds later, Sanders Commings and Nico Johnson could find reserve spots, but nothing stands out as addressing needs. In fact, undrafted QB Tyler Bray could turn out to be the only gem, other than Fisher, in the long run. Moeaki and Fasano make the Travis Kelce selection even more of a head scratcher, it's quite possible they release Moeaki, unless Andy Reid intends to incorporate some two-TE offense. The Chiefs should have taken a WR early, in the spot they chose Kelce. Bowe and Avery are fine at WR, but behind them there is only unproven and so far unsuccessful depth, and nobody that scares you downfield. It was a position of greater need. A solid backup for Dontari Poe, a speedy edge rusher, all would have been better choices for this team. They got a great lineman, one they really didn't need, and that's about it. Grade: D

Fantasy Implications: Kelce is it. We know what Fasano and Moeaki can do. Kelce comes highly regarded, often compared to Rob Gronkowski in both playing style and off-field antics, and does show some skills. I bet he sees the field a lot and relegates Moeaki to strictly blocking duties. He's worth a late round grab as a TE2, even in a TE1 slot if he shows in preseason that he can take the job. Alex Smith and Reid both like throwing to the TE.

San Diego Chargers: Going into this draft the Bolts knew they had lots of holes to fill. The OL was a mess, LB and DB slots also needed upgrades, Matthews isn't getting the job done at RB and has aging Ronnie Brown behind him, Rivers is showing signs of decline, and there is still nobody at TE to give Gates' old legs a rest. The team took DJ Fluker with their first pick, essentially the best available tackle, with plenty of beef and motor but some character concerns. They took another chance on character by grabbing Te'o in Round 2, then snagged a good WR in Keenan Allen in Round 3. Their picks in Rounds 5 and 6, though, really make this draft better.

The Chargers should have traded up and landed one of the big two if they wanted a tackle. They also should be more aggressive in the free agent talks with available linemen. Non-aggressive would be a good way to describe this team's approach to this draft in general. Fluker will start right away, with all the goods and bads in place, and Te'o will play all three downs in San Diego because he is needed all three downs. Keenan Allen will compete with Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown for receptions after Danario Alexander and Gates get theirs. In the Williamses, though, Tourek and Steve, the Chargers found solid underrated value and both those players will not only make the 2013 San Diego squad, but also win starting roles. Steve Williams is small but reminds you of Brent Grimes with his tenacity and ball skills, and Tourek could very well be this year's Jason Pierre-Paul. Grade: B-

Fantasy Implications: Brad Sorensen, their last pick, could stick as Rivers' backup, but is no fantasy factor otherwise. Keenan Allen is the only other possibility. My guess is the team uses him to return kicks at first, then he eventually wins the 3rd receiver job.

Oakland Raiders: Arguably no team had more holes to fill coming into this draft than Da Raidas. Years of overpaying mediocre talent has taken its toll on this team. While the late Al Davis usually is cited as the cause, it must be remembered that Davis gave his coaches and GMs much respect and control over the team. He was in this way no more intrusive than Jerry Jones, or even Mr. Khan. It is, rather, the absence of talented leadership by players on the field that has promoted a losing, even giving-up attitude in Oakland the past few years. It seems this team has no leaders. Going into the draft, that should have been their priority. DJ Hayden, their first selection, could fill that role.  Menelik Watson is a nice pickup for the OL, but they did not do enough to grab value with their many late picks.

Watson will start on the line, and Hayden will start as well. Tyler Wilson could be the second Wilson to unseat a projected-to-start Matt Flynn, and Sio Moore should find his way into a starting LB role in this defense. But there are big question marks around all the other Raiders 2013 draft picks. They took two TEs in Kasa and Rivera, but they are both average propects on par with several current NFL free agents. They should have traded up to grab Kelce or Escobar if they wanted a TE, although they let a decent one go in Brandon Myers. Grade: C-

Fantasy Implications: Well it does get interesting from this perspective. As I have said, Tyler Wilson could show enough to sit Matt Flynn yet again and become the new staring Raiders QB. Latavius Murray is a RB selection to keep in your back pocket. He has a special skill set and has all the tools to win the lucrative backup job to Darren McFadden and, considering his competition, should do so easily. Keep an eye on the TE duo, too. David Ausberry should lose his starting job to one of them.

2013 NFL Draft Team Grades and Notes: AFC East

The NFL draft's completion means the new season is underway. Here at the URFL, it means we will begin setting up our 2013 fantasy football leagues in just a few weeks. For fantasy franchise owners, the post-draft is a good time to look at the impact drafted players will have on their real world teams and, consequently, their fantasy point-producing possibilities. In this post I take a look at the AFC East team drafts, give each of them a grade, and then assess any projected fantasy impact.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots: The Pats did not get to pick until the 20th selection in Round 2, choosing to trade down and stockpile later picks. Apparently coach Belicheck and his staff found the talent just as good deeper into the draft. Still, you have to question this whole draft, not Coach's ability to spot talent, but rather when he chose to take the players he did. Most, if not all of them, could have been had later than when they were selected, and in this writer's opinion, missing out on any of them would not have been so devastating at all.

Had they retained their first round pick, New England could have had Ogletree, Carradine, Hankins, or Short. Instead they selected Jamie Collins in Round 2, a smart player who could start right away, but who was not anywhere near the value of those other defenders. Dobson is an OK receiver but, again, could have been had probably two rounds later, and Patterson would have been there for them in Round 1, too, had they chosen to go that route. Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon are wildcards and actually help this draft's grade because they could compete for jobs immediately, despite being lesser-known players. On those two we have to trust the Coach, but for now we can only grade what we see. GRADE: C-

Fantasy Implications: Dobson and Boyce have a chance at an opportunity and the situation is worth keeping an eye on, but other than that, don't expect any new fantasy producers up near Boston, at least via this draft.

2. Miami Dolphins: Under heavy fire and gasping for air, in Miami it is GM Ireland that everyone talks about, and the talk has not been good. Coach Philbin, it seems, has not yet been allocated any responsibility for any moves prior to last season. This year, though, Philbin will have to at least begin to bear some brunt of the responsibility. This draft, for instance, must include his impetus somewhere along the line. Regardless, the 'Phins were aggressive in this draft, trading up to grab Dion Jordan, then making a solid hit with Jamar Taylor in the 2nd. Clearly their "need" was playmaking defensive players, and they got two of the best in this draft.

Had Miami stayed put they would have certainly missed out on Jordan, but could have had Star Lotulelei, Sharif Floyd, Bjorn Woerner, Datone Jones, or even Ogletree. Remember Menelik Watson was taken by the Raiders with the pick they got from Miami, so theoretically they could have had any of those impact defenders, plus a slightly better lineman than Dallas Thomas. But it's hard to criticize this draft. Jordan was picked to play and he will start. Knowing Miami, Taylor will start right away also, and my bet would be Thomas starts some games, if not all of them. Will Davis is even money to win a job, at least as an extra nickel back. Even Gillislee, I predict, will get playing time. So, from that perspective, this draft is a success. Grade: B+

Fantasy Implications: You should watch the defense early in camp and in preseason because, for all the hooplah, they could be either better or worse than last year. Caleb Sturgis, the first kicker chosen in the draft, and one of three Gators taken by Miami in the late rounds, will be given every chance to win the job from the Carpenter, and my guess is he succeeds; those missed kicks by Carpenter last year stung. I am also supposing that Gillislee wins the backup role to Lamar Miller, and will supplant him if Miller struggles. One thing is for sure, Miami's backfield just got quicker. Forgetting for a minute about the questions at left tackle, one must first ask whether Tannehill is the answer. In many ways this team will go in 2013 as goes Tannehill.

3. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo does the bluff not only on football pundits but also on Ryan Nassib. We can only scantly imagine how he felt as Goddell went to the podium and said "...the Buffalo Bills select quarterback...EJ Manuel." All I'm hearing is a drain sound...Anyway, Buffalo's draft has to begin and end with Manuel. There are many questions we could ask here. Yes, the trade down was beneficial, but let's remember which slot they held, that same slot with which the Rams took Austin.

Could Manuel have been available in Round 2? I say, yes he could have been. Robert Woods is a fine receiver, and will help the Bills, but a fast slot man to complement Stevie would have been even better. Alonso is a high-motor guy I like to succeed in the NFL, he will start for the Bills, and speedster Marquise Goodwin could put TJ Graham's job in jeopardy as the third receiver. All in all Buffalo grabbed some nice players, but Manuel that early is a head scratcher, he probably could have been had in Round 3. Grade: B

Fantasy Implications: A whole bunch. Kolb might best Manuel in accuracy but that's about it. I fully expect Manuel to win this QB job outright in camp, and the Bills will be dramatically improved because of the move. He will be ranked as a draftable QB somewhere around Jay Cutler range, and I will have him ahead of Cutler, Freeman, Locker, Tannehill, and many other known commodities. As for the other receivers, what they do in this west-cost offense will depend on the maturation of Manuel. If indeed he picks up the system quickly, as everyone seems to think he can do, all four of the receivers - Woods, Goodwin, Stevie, and Graham - must be put on the fantasy radar. If I had to choose today, I would draft Stevie, then Woods, and maybe take a late flier on Goodwin. Also expect rookie Dustin Hopkins, Manuel's fellow Nole, to win the Bills' kicking job.

4. New York Jets: The Jets made little noise in the draft, choosing to address needs with their picks, and also lucking out by grabbing their new starting QB - in Round 3. Brian Winters is a so-so lineman who will make the team but probably not the starting lineup, but the lineman to watch here is 5th rounder Oday Aboushi. He is big, very smart, and still learning the fine points of his craft. I think you will see the coaches take to him and make him into a starter by midseason.

Sheldon Richardson has the talent to be considered the steal of the draft at pick #13. While I think Dee Milliner was drafted too high, I think the Richardson pick does a flip-flop to correct the error. Really, it's LBs the Jets need, and they didn't so much as sniff one. Still, something had to be sacrificed. If I did their draft, I would have taken Ogletree, follwing it up with Richardson and then a DB like Trufant or Amerson. Yet, they added at least three starters, likely four, and let's not forget a Geno Smith, projected to go in Round 1 in a "QB light" draft, scooped up in Round 3. If Milliner succeeds, this draft is an A+. If he struggles, as I expect, A- anyway.

Fantasy Implications: Geno Smith has his faults, but he will be given the job as soon as Sanchez becomes, well, Sanchez-like. I would not bet the farm that Smith is the opening week starter, at least not yet, but he should see the field before the midway point of the season. If he wins the job he becomes very draftable in fantasy. Other than that, no new playmakers came to the Jets via the draft, but Chris Ivory, acquired via trade, suddenly complicates the backfield situation even more. Keep an eye out there.

Next time, the AFC West.

NFL SUPER BOWL PREVIEW And NFL CHAMPIONSHIPS RECAP

Well once again, to my chagrin, I hit the 50/50 mark for guessing outcomes, this time with a split decision on my NFC and AFC Championship Games predictions. Looks like it's off to work again, as at this rate I'll never make a living gambling. Nevertheless, I trod on, this time to impress you yet again with a very real 50% chance of victory. Remember to cut me in on your winnings...

Before every Super Bowl we are asked the question whether the teams playing the games are the ones which "should" be there. For the next week and a half you're going to hear lots of times about teams "getting hot at the right time" and "catching breaks" or being "the healthiest they've been all season." What holds more true still is that football is a game of inches, that is the smallest accounted-for distance on a 100 yard football field. Between getting first downs and not, or getting in the end zone or not, or as we have seen many times this season, making the field goal or not (aka Mason "Bing" Crosby, or David "Ding" Akers") is a matter of inches, sometimes even an inch or less. A missed third-and-1, even by one inch, doesn't look like it can make much difference, but in the end it is the accumulation of these misses that cost a team the game. This is why what seems like parity is really a result of the changing nature of the game. Who will win any game now is only determined maybe 50% by the actual performances of the players on the field. The rest results from coaching decisions, personnel packages, lineup configurations, game plans, and other things players do not control. The game is even time-controlled by more than the clock, as time outs are adjusted in length, and official time outs called, to account for broadcasting requirements.

What can a fantasy football player glean from all this? Well, keep in mind that, probably for the worse but for better or worse, we are in the Age Of Specialization. Whereas in the past players put it all out on the field every play, some starters not even getting warmed up until the 2nd quarter and playing until they were too gassed to play any more, at which point the backups came in, today things are very different. Rotation of players to keep them "fresh" is becoming as commonplace as formations which change nearly every play, perhaps - as I have said before - giving more away about the play they plan to run instead of disguising it. The rotation of players can have the same effect. I can tell you this, nether I nor anyone I know who has played the game, one of these men having played on the pro level and several into college, would ever want to come out of a football game. Adrenaline doesn't come on and off like that, you can't get "into" the game like that. But it is a future we must anticipate, as sure to become more commonplace as the twelve men that now do the job of one head coach. We must change our strategy to reflect this state of affairs.

How will I personally do it? Well, until it becomes an every down thing for every skill position player, a fantasy player's first priority would seem to be finding out which of these NFL players are going to be on the field the most. Sure, "playing time" has always been a factor when drafting fantasy teams, and a big one at that. But from team to team now, during the transition to full-blown timeshares at every ball-carrying spot except QB, there will be dramatic differences in how teams will use their personnel. For every Calvin Johnson taking 90% of the snaps there will be several Josh Gordons seeing 50% of them. Determining who will be Calvins and who Joshes will be the fantasy player's top priority.

On the other hand, GIVEN that most NFL players utilized by fantasy gamers will be part-timers anyway, one cannot neglect the need to identify the most skilled players, that is, those who will make for the most difference when they are on the field. Discerning between, say, Donnie Avery and TY Hilton for 2013, may require one forget at this point the "playing time" effect and instead go for the "big play" possibility.

All in all, the luck factor becomes more and more real as fantasy rolls on. Given all the variables, soon it will become in fantasy as office pools have become, something anyone can play, using defaults or computer settings and/or recommendations, and still stand a chance to win. Sure, us students of the game might have a little advantage, but just reflect on your own past season's successes and failures, and look at the rosters of your teams. My guess is that, more often than not, it was NOT your best rosters that won you your championships, and that some of your best-drafted teams won diddly.

So maybe it's not all that bad. Considering the number of teams I've played, and the number of Championships I've brought home, maybe I'd be the kind to benefit from a little more emphasis on luck...and maybe you would be too.

THE SUPER BOWL

All this to give you my prediction for the Super Bowl. I said last week that whoever won the NFC Championship game would have a hard time beating the winner of the AFC game, and I am going to stay with that prediction. Baltimore will win for Ray Lewis, and though I am not a big fan of his character, and I have a lot of questions about how genuine some of the things he says and does are, he is a natural born motivator and he knows how to play the game of football. The 49ers came up big last week with their backs to the wall, but they didn't impress me much. The man here, though, is still Frank Gore, who commands a LOT of defensive attention when he is on the field, and he still plays like a kid. Where all the talk is about "win one for Frank" I have no idea, but I would not be surprised if San Francisco lost this game and Gore still got the MVP, crazy as that sounds. If Baltimore's defense forgets about Frank Gore in their scurry to prepare for Kaepernick, that would be a big mistake. Regardless, I say BALTIMORE 31 San Francisco 28.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round RECAP And CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW

Well the NFL Divisional playoffs didn't turn out quite as yours truly expected, as you can see by reading the predictions of the previous few posts, but I think enough points were nailed square on the head to merit another guess at the upcoming NFL Conference Championship games this Sunday. To recap, I incorrectly predicted Seattle to beat Atlanta and Denver to beat Baltimore. I guessed right choosing San Francisco over Green Bay and New England over Houston. In my defense of this sheepish mediocrity - really I think it is an affliction - Seattle had what it took to beat Atlanta and came within seconds of doing so. By the way, if you look at the tape of that game you will see some funny use of the clock by whoever was running it down in Hotlanta. For example, at least 3 seconds elapsed before Atlanta's final kickoff return(er) began running with the ball out of his end zone, and the start of the game clock. On one of Ryan's sideline passes on that final drive, for another example, the receiver was clearly stopped in bounds yet the referee stopped the clock as if the receiver (I think it was Jones) went out of bounds. Anyway, I'm just saying, this strategy almost backfired, as those extra 8 seconds or even more at the end of the game were almost enough to let Seattle have yet one more chance. Yet one more reason homefield is an advantage?

As for Baltimore beating Peyton and the Broncos, I DID say not to count out this resurgent Ravens defense, which did enough to win, and I emphasized the influence of Ray Lewis - who had 17 tackles - as well as mentioned Manning's terrible history against the Ravens. Also a good prediction on the Ravens' special teams production. But, as if called out by my preview of him for that game, Joe Flacco put in an amazing performance, yes it was one of those days I talked about, that when he is on he is really on. I guess I gave too much credit to Denver's defense, which I was sure could stifle what has most of the season been a predictable offense. Perhaps getting rid of their coordinator did some good. That and the motivational skills of Ray Lewis. This game was no surprise to me, I knew Baltimore could win, I just would never have imagined they could win a shootout... in Denver.

So close but yet so far. Let's try again, for Sunday:

I. AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 6:30 PM ET, CBS
These two are somewhat strangers to each other, and this week will mark only the third time the two have met in the postseason since 1996, always at New England. The Ravens handed the Patriots a last-seconds loss back in September in Baltimore, but only once before has Baltimore ever beaten New England, and that was in the 2009 playoffs at Gillette Stadium.

New England plays well at home, but Baltimore fields the type of team to handle both the cold and the crowds in frigid Foxboro. On offense the Ravens should be able to move the ball on New England as least as much as Houston did last weekend, and Baltimore's defense is back in the Big Play department but still giving up a lot of points.

I have two forces pulling on me in my attempt to forecast this game. History is on the side of New England, as is the home field advantage and Bill Belichick. I'd take Brady over Flacco at QB, Rice over Ridley at RB but just barely, call the WRs even, and normally give a big TE nod to the Pats, but that gap, with the news that Gronkowski will be out the rest of the season, closes a bit when it's just Hernandez against Pitta and Dickson. I expect to see more Woodhead than Vereen in this one, and maybe a 12 catch day for Welker running right at Ray Lewis' spot. But I also have that "looks like one for Ray Lewis" feel about it all now, and that complicates matters considerably. It is arguable that no team currently in the playoffs has the entire combination of offense, defense, and special teams necessary on paper to win it all EXCEPT the Ravens. They have the most experience together as a total team, as I think the Patriots' defense is work in progress with almost rotating doors at big positions, and that the 49ers are still adjusting to their new toy on offense. The Falcons defense, to me, while it has demonstrated talent at times (as I mentioned last week, you see what happened when John Abraham had to leave the last game) hasn't yet shown championship caliber cohesion. I would not want them defending my end zone with an opponent needing a quick six.

What to do? Predicted score: RAVENS 34 Patriots 31. And while everyone's going to be talking Ray Lewis, and perhaps rightfully so, I'm only gonna say one thing in support of my prediction: Ed Reed.

II. NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 3:00 PM ET, FOX
Another good game, this one for all the marbles in the NFC. The biggest question here is which Colin Kaepernick will we see? The one from last weekend, when he looked like the second coming of Red Grange, or the one of several weeks ago, when he displayed all the passing accuracy of a drunken Alex Smith? As I said last week in the keys to a 49ers win, Colin had to use his legs, and boy did he, he got more than the first downs I forecasted. And what about the resurgence of Michael Crabtree. Has he finally figured it out? I also said last week that if the Falcons could beat Seattle they would get close to making me a believer, and they have accomplished that. But not with any kind of flair. They won the game, but have erased few doubts about their ability to win The Big One. Perhaps it is best for them this way, maybe the teams playing against Atlanta feel no need to "rise up" against them, which would be a big mistake right now. Atlanta can win it all easily, but can they avoid the mental, coaching, penalty, defensive, and game plan mistakes that almost cost them their game last week?

If you will recall, Seattle flambayed the 49ers in San Francisco's final regular season road game. Yes Seattle's D shut down the 49ers offense, but Kaepernick wasn't all that impressive when he had to put the ball in the air, and like Matt Ryan last week, was seriously outplayed by Russell Wilson in that one. But then again, this is an Atlanta team that got pretty beaten by the Bucs, at home, not a few weeks ago.

When it comes down to it, I don't think either of these teams will be able to beat the winner of the AFC title game, but stranger things have happened. In this one, I don't think Kaepernick can do it alone, but Frank Gore will test again that Falcons defense that did a number on Lynch last week. QBs EVEN for this one, WR edge to Falcons, RB edge to Niners, TE edge to Falcons, defense edge to Niners, homefield to Falcons, kicker to Falcons....wow, looks like (Predicted Score...) ATLANTA 24 San Francisco 20.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Seattle At Atlanta

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: SEATTLE AT ATLANTA

I. Seattle: If you were to pick a hot team right now, heading into the divisional round of playoff games, that team would be Seattle.  Every season it is not usually the best team all season that wins the Super Bowl but the team that is the playing best at this time of year. Not predicted to do a whole lot before the season began, these Seahawks have surprised everyone and gone so far as to have already won a playoff game. Much of this turnaround has to do with perhaps the most unexpected surprise of the 2012 draft Russell Wilson, and a defense packed with studs in the secondary. As of right now it seems only inexperience can stop this team, that and a shown difficulty playing on the road.

QB: I have been high on Russell Wilson since watching him play his first exhibition game. Not blessed with the strongest arm or extraordinary stature to see over the line, Wilson gets by on guts, guile, quick feet and mind, and a strong desire to succeed. He is a born leader on the field and the game has not proven too fast for him as it has some more famous past rookie QBs. He has shown again the mistakes too many in NFL personnel departments make when evaluating players, that main mistake being relying too much on measurables and stature. This kid can play, and arguably has turned a mediocre team into a very good one. I am rooting for this cat for many reasons, he has a long bright future in the NFL. His being named the starting QB from jump street will go down as one of Pete Carroll's best moves as a coach, and he's made a few of them during his tenure in Seattle. He is a player's coach who knows talent when he sees it, and in Wilson he has found a gem for now and the future. Wilson provides more than enough at the position for the Seahawks to win at Atlanta this week. Expecting even more improvement next season, for fantasy purposes I have him ranked at QB #7 for 2013.

RB: Beast Mode a.k.a. Marshawn Lynch had an even better year than was expected of him, mostly due to his keeping his injuries, especially his chronic back problems, under control this season. He is a nasty running back, running hard and strong and hardly ever going down on the first hit or by arm tackles. Now that his off-field problems are behind him, apparently, his durability is the only issue which remains and which keeps him from being mentioned as one of the top backs in the league. But right now he is that, he provides a horse the Seahawks can ride this Sunday and on into the future. Backup Robert Turbin has also impressed in relief of Lynch this season, and has a future in the league. Fantasy-wise for 2013, because of his heavy workload I have Lynch ranked as my #2 RB for 2013, behind only Adrian Peterson and, yes, ahead of Arian Foster just barely. Barring injury I don't see this changing much during the offseason, but just in case I have also ranked Turbin, whose fringe value right now could elevate to a big payoff should anything happen to Lynch.

WR: Considering his WR talent what Wilson has done is even more impressive. It's not that Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin are bad receivers. In fact I think all three of them are underrated by pro scouts and in fantasy circles. It's just that all of them are fairly similar types, limited route-runners that cannot really stretch the field. While Seattle has used Tate and Rice in this role with limited success, they really don't have that big top-end burner, for example their opponent this week, Atlanta has two of them. In a way this plays to the strengths of Wilson, and perhaps the long bombs were missing rather because of  fears about Wilson's arm strength that this crew's ability to get open deep. Rice is a fluid runner with average hands who just gets dinged up too much, this history of bumps and bruises sidelining him has gone on since he Vikings days. When on and healthy he is a very good, if not quite top-tier receiver. He's not much of a blocker and will often give away decoy routes too early. Golden Tate has had his best season to date and has shown a knack for making big catches and difficult catches and probably - despite some conspicuous drops - has the best ball-concentration and hands of the three. He is also probably the quickest in space, and probably, in my opinion, should be playing the slot. Doug Baldwin, a decent receiver in his own right, had a rough year due to injuries and not being all that involved in the game plans. He probably should be moved outside. Bottom line is that there are several possibilities for Wilson on every pass play, none of them the focus enough for them to be keyed on by opponents. So while they aren't on par with the duo they'll face in Atlanta, at least not yet, they will present enough of a mystery to keep Atlanta's defense guessing on passing downs on Sunday. For fantasy football in 2013, I have Rice ranked the highest right now at WR #30, with Golden Tate at #46. I expect some movement during the offseason with these guys, probably both, should they retain their starting roles, will go up in value by kickoff 2013.

TE: This "you'll never know who he'll throw the ball to" mystery progresses on through the tight ends. Zach Miller has come on late and provides perhaps the primary TE target for Wilson, but it just might be Anthony McCoy who makes an unexpected grab. In fact the whole key to Seattle's passing game is the uncertainty about the targets. This could be due to Wilson's ability to go through his mental progressions, that is his mental quickness ability to find the open man and make the decision to let the ball go, or due to a good game plan that spreads the ball around. My guess is it's mostly Wilson with a little bit of gameplan, but then again teams don't usually give rookies many "just hit the open man" options, usually they call the play and have the QB throw to the spot or particular man. Regardless, this unit won't win the game for Seattle on Sunday, but it does provide a very real threat that can easily go under the radar. Especially if Wilson has to run and starts to improvise, both Miller and McCoy could prove to be valuable targets. For fantasy in 2013 this is a situation to monitor, because if one emerges and becomes involved in the offense, that one will have some value for fantasy football draft purposes. I have Miller only ranked at TE #29 right now, that will likely go up during the offseason, but if not, you are looking at value picks here.

Defense/Special Teams: Seattle's defense is now known as one of the best in the league right now and deservedly so. The numbers don't tell the whole story as this unit is blessed with a defensive backfield half of which most teams would pay through the nose for. These dudes are big, fast, hit hard, have attitudes, and haven't even been full strength most of the year. Pete Carroll can also pick DBs. Sherman, Chancellor, Browner, Earl Thomas - they carry this squad, as what's in front of them, with perhaps the exception of Red Bryant and maybe Bobby Wagner, are middling prospects adequate and nothing more. They are backed up by a brick wall, and that makes the linebackers and DL play even better. This week my guess is you will see just how good this defensive backfield of Seattle is: they will be tested, and come out with a passing grade. For fantasy purposes in 2013, they will be the third or fourth squad off the board, rightfully so.

K: Stephen Hauschka was the team's kicker most of the year and did a fine job, he is out for this week and so the the Seahawks have hired on Ryan Longwell for the playoff run. Longwell can still kick the ball, this offense does need a reliable kicker so this is a situation to watch on Sunday, one that could actually be a difference maker. Assuming Hauschka returns to his 2012 form, he should be taken highly in fantasy 2013 drafts.

II. Atlanta: The Rodney Dangerfields of this playoffs, if not the entire season, the Falcons' great regular season success has not translated into much respect in the minds of football commentators or oddsmakers, the latter calling them one of the longshots to win the Super Bowl. I've never been a big fan of Atlanta either, and I also don't quite believe they are as good as their record, but they have me right there on the edge of believerdom. They have what appears to be an accurate passer, a dynamic and perhaps the best pair of wideouts in the league, a thunder-and-lightning running game, and a slightly better than average defense. Their defensive line is very good when healthy but the rest of the defense is adequate at best. It seems that for all their improvement in the offensive side of the ball, the defensive side hasn't gained much. Anyway, to make me a believer they need to win this game on Sunday against the Seahawks. They do that and they just might be for real.

QB: Matt Ryan has it all as far as tools go. He is big, strong, stays healthy, smart, makes good reads, knows the offense, and wants to win. How badly can make all the difference. In many ways for me Ryan is like Matt Schaub in Houston, just going in the opposite direction. Ryan has the same type of questions surrounding him although he, like Schaub, apparently has all the necessary tools. Ryan's limitations, or apparent limitations, are also similar to Schaub's: you don't want to have to rely on his arm to get in the end zone with time running out (though he does seem to be improving in this area); he is basically immobile; and he can be rattled with even the slightest bit of pressure. Neither of them has yet to win "the Big Ones." But as long as Ryan continues to improve - and as long as he has those two big guns on his hips - he is a dangerous man, dangerous on Sunday and dangerous for fantasy purposes in 2013, where I have him ranked higher than ever right now at QB #8.

RB: Most people will talk about how Michael Turner's days are numbered, but his complement Jacquizz Rodgers is as likely to lose yardage as gain it and the rest of the depth behind him is a non-issue. Turner, if not as effective as he once was, still can move the chains, punch it in at the goal line, and keep you honest in the middle. He needs to get heated up, and it is no coincidence that as his carries have declined so has his performance. Turner is the Falcons' best option and will continue to be until this team brings in another bigtime RB. He might have some success on Sunday but don't bet on it as I don't think the mindset of this coaching staff has the patience to go without playing with their big toys. For fantasy purposes in 2013 you can take a chance on Rodgers if you want, myself I'd sooner grab Turner at a bargain price, around RB #20 range.

WR: Here are the big dogs and the primary reason these Falcons had the best record in the NFL in 2012. It is nearly impossible to single-cover either Roddy White or Julio Jones and teams' struggles in trying to do so has allowed Atlanta to have opportunities open up elsewhere, whether for running plays or Tony G. over the middle. They are big weapons these two, White with the better hands and quicks but Jones with the big-league upfield speed and body control. They will challenge and be challenged by the Seattle secondary often this weekend and the battle should be a joy to watch. Both should be taken very highly in 2013 fantasy drafts, I have Jones at WR #8 and White at WR #15, all in all, and again going against the grain, I'd sooner wait and nab White a bit later.

TE: While the Atlanta WRs will be busy battling that formidable Seattle secondary, I expect Tony Gonzalez to become a focal point in this game early and often. Of all the players on the Falcons he is the most responsible for this team's success, and I mean that sincerely. He plays each PLAY, not game, as if it is his last, and he is just as content out there blocking as receiving, where he still draws double coverage as a matter of routine. His hands have natural stickum on them, and he times his jumps to perfection. He is a prototype TE, always has been, and a sure first-ballot Hall Of Famer. He will need to come up huge this weekend for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks, and if he plays in 2013 he will be a top-3 TE in nearly all fantasy drafts.

Defense/Special Teams: The weakness for these Falcons is its defense and minor losses can hurt it considerably. If a questionable John Abraham is limited or does not play on Sunday, for example, this unit could be in more trouble than should reslt from a defense's loss of one starter. Teams have shown this season that you can move the ball on these Falcons, especially when they are starter down, and this might in fact be one reason why Atlanta is not garnering the respect it seems to deserve, that depth issue. Seattle doesn't have a potent offense but they do have an unpredictable and efficient one, and so Atlanta's D will need one of its best games of the year to make it to the NFL's Championship round. For fantasy football in 2013 this unit only has value because of Atlanta's offensive efficiency and nobody should reach to take them, if take them at all.

K: Matt Bryant has been one of the best kickers in the league the past couple of years, but looks like he's on a rapid decline. Battling injuries and missing kicks he would ordinarily make, it is all I can do to call his tryst against Ryan Longwell this week a push. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards until the preseason is about over.

PREDICTED SCORE: Homefield edge to Falcons, QBs even, RB edge to Seattle, defense edge to Seattle, TE edge to Falcons, WR edge to Falcons. looks like Falcons, but I say never mind that SEATTLE 31 Atlanta 30, in a barnburner. Expect some big INTs for Seattle secondary, and some characteristic Falcons coaching staff mistakes, to ice the unexpected win. Seattle loses in all the stats categories, but wins the game. You might be looking at a destiny forged - by the goddess Nike? - for these 2012 Seattle Seahawks.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Green Bay At San Francisco

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE: GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO

I. Green Bay: I think the big question about this Packers team is how good is it compared to the past couple of years. While the defense played better last week, and better at home overall, I think this unit has slipped a bit and is pretty ripe for the taking on the road. The good news for the defense is that their opponent this week, the 49ers, are in sort of a transition on offense, and so are not large point producers. The Packers offense can score with anyone and on anyone, I do have some questions about the center of that offensive line, but it still keeps Rodgers relatively clean, and in fact sometimes gives him all day to to throw the ball. Much of the reason for that is the plethora of wide receiving threats that have to be accounted for, reducing blitzes and the possibility of bringing extra men after Rodgers.

QB: Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, his stats and winning percentage are undeniable. He is not afraid to wing it and can handle a two-minute drill as well as anyone. He shows good pocket presence, a strong desire to win, and possesses extreme confidence on the field. He has free reign to audible, and passes near the goal line. He stays healthy and has many receiving options to work with, and is always for fantasy purposes the first or second QB taken, and that should remain the same in 2013. As for this season, he started off slowly, has had to live life without Greg Jennings all regular season, and Jordy Nelson for significant portions of it, but still he has managed to steer this team into the playoffs, and keep himself at the top of the statistical categories. Despite all that, I think his numbers are a bit inflated because of those short goal line TDs and Packers' penchant for the pass, especially in the red zone. In saying he can score on anyone, this week he'll have one of his more difficult tests of that theory.

RB: Well what can you say about DuJuan Harris, Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and John Kuhn, other than that if you get to start an entire NFL team's backfield in your fantasy league they're not bad? It appears right now that the team is going to ride Harris, my guess is he'll start this weekend, and possibly in 2013. Grant is purely a stop-gap measure, although don't be surprised if Green is traded or released this offseason, especially if Green Bay goes for a RB via the draft or trade this spring. Kuhn is the designated short-yardage guy and fan favorite, to me he's a luxury to have around for the Packers, a token to use here and there, for show even. The running game on paper looks like a liability going into the Bay, perhaps the Packers might do well to surprise everyone and run it up the guts - or try to - against the Niners on Saturday, because my guess here is the 49ers are preparing for a Rodgers bombardment. Actually, so am I. Fantasy-wise, only Harris appears to be draftable in 2013 right now, but this is certainly a situation to monitor in the coming months, as whoever does emerge as the primary ball carrier will have decent value.

WR: It doesn't get much better at wideout than what the Packers have in stock right now. In fact, one could say there's a little too much seasoning in this receiving pot and that there is too much pressure on Rodgers and the coordinators to keep everyone involved. Jordy Nelson is back I hear, but this season he has tailed off from a remarkable 2011. Injuries and his running mate James Jones have been responsible, speaking of who, is really the main target in crucial situations now, a spot once held by a healthy Nelson. The emergence of Randall Cobb as more than just a kick returner has demanded he see the field often, perhaps more than he has so far. Greg Jennings is back and ready to go, that is, probably go elsewhere in 2013. Regardless, the Pack have the horses to move this wagon for sure, and an accurate gunslinger to fire the ball to them. Even old Donald Driver might get in some playoff catches. They are a load for any team and will be for even that stingy San Francisco defense this weekend. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I have Cobb and Nelson ranked #17 and #18, Jennings at #25 anticipating a new team, and James Jones currently unranked, until I see where he ends up.

TE: I don't know that Jermichael Finley helps so much as just adds another possibility for defenses to have to account for. He is just as liable to drop an easy catch as catch a difficult one, but he's conspicuous and almost always draws people in his direction. He has talent, one wonders how much the nagging injuries he's tried to play through has hindered his overall progress at his position. Tom Crabtree is an average talent who just might be earning more time if Finley doesn't get near his ceiling soon, or perhaps look for the Packers to tend to this position in the draft. My guess is they give Finley another year or two. He could sneak one in this week could Finley, especially if San Fran goes with a lot of blitzing to try and get to Rodgers. Down and out, 52-flat, 10 yards. For fantasy purposes in 2013, I see him as a #20ish TE as of right now.

Defense/Special Teams: In actuality a win against a one-dimensional Vikings offense at home shouldn't qualify your "defense being back" but this is precisely the talk in punditville across the land. Don't you believe it one second. The defense that cometh with the Iceman is a middling unit even when healthy, and especially on the road. They are vulnerable deep and against the run, and my bet is that is what the 49ers try to do. Still, because of their great offense this unit is almost always fresh and still does carry a penchant for the big play. Same with their return unit as long as Cobb is bringing them back. Fantasy-wise they will most certainly be drafted too early, by someone.

Kicker: The team has done the admirable thing and stayed with Mason "Bing" Crosby, but what they are calling a "slump" I'm calling "he'll be gone in 2013." It is entirely possibly that Crosby's woes hurt this team in its playoff run, not a good thing at a time when all points are to be cherished. Don't pencil him in anywhere on your 2013 draft boards yet.

II. San Francisco: For all their recent struggles on both sides of the ball, this team is still loaded with talent, especially with a defense that can still pack a wallop. If anyone is capable of stifling Green Bay it's still these 49ers, at least in the NFC. They will have their work cut out for them this weekend. Overall I see this team as average on offense, all things considered. Maybe it is true that in the long run the team is better off with Colin Kaepernick at QB, myself I am not sure the Colin-itis will last as long as some believe. If the Niners are to win on Saturday, they are going to have to do it with big plays on defense.

QB: Kaepernick has some talent but also some obvious weak points. He's not a needle-threader, his passes almost always reach the receiver in the wrong spot, and despite 2 years of learning he still has trouble reading coverages. His ball security is not all that great. But the kid is big and strong and can move, you can tell he loves to play, and his arm is plenty strong enough. On this day coming, though. I don't think Michael Crabtree will be left free to roam, and he better be looking elsewhere, that or be prepared to keep a few drives alive with his legs. I am not sure about his long-term potential. My best guess is he stays on and starts next season for the 49ers too. Accounting for some improvement and the nature of his offense, I have him at QB #17 right now for 2013.

RB: Everybody knows about Frank Gore, and he is another player who annually has his retirement papers written for him by the media-drones, but who nevertheless comes back and plays at a high level. He will see plenty of totes this weekend, you can bet the house, and I expect a combination of Gore and LaMichael James for flavor as the Niners try and eat up clock time in this one. Gore is explosive, can hit you inside or outside, and doesn't drop many passes. James hasn't shown me much yet. There is enough here, though, to have some success running the ball on the Packers. For 2013 fantasy I have Gore ranked #18, I expect that number to rise as he cements another starting season.

WR: Michael Crabtree has elevated his game recently, whether because of chemistry building with Kaepernick or because he finally put his head on straight. Beset with problems and injuries since his highly-acclaimed drafting two years ago, he does have the physical talent, when 100% healthy, to be an AJ Green type of player. His problems rather are all mental, he is a way too cocky for what he has accomplished at the pro level, and needs someone to step up next to him. On that note, Randy Moss is being sent as a decoy most plays, but when he's not he's been open, just has had hardly any balls come in his direction. Still, he may do something of a surprise Saturday, but not he, nor anyone else on the current 49ers roster, is that 2nd WR answer. Weakness here almost necessitates a ground game for San Francisco in this divisional round of the NFL playoffs. For fantasy purposes next year, I still can't see Crabtree higher than WR #40, but this number will likely change as the 2013 season approaches.

TE: What has happened to Vernon Davis? Yes he was Alex Smith's favorite safety valve, but still there were many plays designed for him in the past. Lately it has been the slightly quicker, better-handed Delanie Walker making the plays from the line. I look for Walker to get a score in this one, it's too bad the team hasn't figured out a way to get both these guys in at the same time. This can reinforce the opinion that Harbaugh does his best as a coaching motivator, and that his innovations on offense leave a lot to be desired. For 2013 fantasy, I'd probably take a shot at Davis at around TE #12 or so, but it is just as likely Walker passes him up by kickoff 2013. Keep a watch there.

Defense/Special Teams: As I've already mentioned, if the 49ers expect to win they are going to have to do it on Saturday with defense. Their biggest task to date this season is on the horizon, and I think they will step up and make this more difficult for the Packers than most expect. They will be a top drafted unit in 2013 fantasy leagues.

K: David Akers is in a slump and may have hit that proverbial brick wall. Going from being one of the best, most accurate kickers in the NFL, to a shaky proposition almost along the lines of Mason Crosby, can only be attributed to recent injuries and all that mileage. I say he goes good a couple times in this one, but I am sure the team will bring in some competition for him in 2013.

PREDICTED SCORE: I'd like to see the Packers lose, I don't know why but I would, I just am not sure that this present 49ers defense can stop Rodgers for four quarters. I think it will be another very good and close game. QB edge to Packers, RB edge to Niners; WR edge to Packers, TE edge to Niners; Defense edge to Niners, kicking edge to Niners. In an upset, SAN FRANCISCO 30, GREEN BAY 24.

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round, Houston At New England

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO: HOUSTON AT NEW ENGLAND

I. Houston: It's funny that a team that was doing so well has suddenly become a big longshot to even make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The Texans defense is its strongpoint this season, and despite some late-season struggles they still bring some heavy equipment to the field, the primary one being Mr. JJ Watt. It is a luxury for a defense to have guys (or more specifically, A guy) on the D-Line that require a blocking crew of at least two men every play. That Watt also moves around all over the place makes him like a blitzing linebacker in the frame of a defensive end. He is also relentless, and I personally am of the opinion this Texans (or "Texas" as some commentators like Al Michaels call them) team would be no better than 8-8 without him; Watt gets plenty of attention, and when opposing teams have been controlling him they have had some success moving the ball. All in all, this is probably the 4th best defense in this divisional round and no better, and that will make it difficult for them to stop the playoff-seasoned Patriots. On offense, Houston doesn't really scare anyone, and sometimes one has to wonder about the play-calling going on there. It seems as if the team is either in a) Arian Foster mode, or b) Andre Johnson mode, never a nice mix bouncing between their two offensive stars. Think how many times Johnson has had big days when the team bailed on the run, or how many times Johnson was forgotten when Foster was getting major touches. I think the defense is good enough to slow down New England, and I know these Texans can score on New England, if they call the right plays. If they fall behind early big and abandon the run game, I really do think they will have a better chance, by beating that Patriots secondary with Johnson.

QB: Well, I've never been a big Matt Schaub fan, and when you ask me why I find it difficult to explain. I mean you have to give him his due: since he has been a starter (HOU 2007), he is one of the most consistent QBs year to year in the NFL; he's thrown for over 4,000 yards 3 of the last 5 years, and more than 20 TDs 3 of the last 4 years, and the numbers would be better over the last 6 years if not for his missing time in 2011, 2007, and 2008. He is the profile of efficiency. I guess what it is, for me, is that Schaub doesn't seem to have that "just give me the ball and let me win it" attitude. I think as a leader he is too team-oriented almost to a fault. Sometimes you have to lead be example, this is desire as much as playing hard on the field. In short I think the knock on Schaub is he is efficient because he doesn't take enough chances, for fear probably of letting down his team if he fails. I am not saying this is true, I am saying this is what it appears. He seems personable and a nice guy and all, but can you see him saying in the huddle "come on guys, suck it up we need this one"? How about audibling at the line like the Mannings, or even Andrew Luck? He doesn't seem clutch, and is not a guy I want when I need a score with 2 minutes on the clock. But he provides enough efficiency to beat the Patriots secondary on Sunday. Fantasy football-wise, he is a middling prospect, someone always under consideration by those who wait to draft a QB.

RB: Arian Foster is well known in NFL and fantasy football circles alike as one of the best RBs in the league. I agree with that assessment, but much of that is because of the really thin line of superstar runners in the game today. Nevertheless, Foster run smoothly, almost effortlessly, and his true comparison is Eric Dickerson, as Foster runs upright at times, and sometimes even with those Dickerson-like long, high strides; he doesn't so much "hit" a hole as "step through" that hole. One school of thought would say Houston should come out on Sunday and run Foster until New England stops him. Then again, it is this history on offense of one dimension-or the other, rather than a mix of both, that's caused them a lot of grief and, I think, ballgames.
Fantasy-wise, Foster will be a top 5 RB again. Backup Ben Tate is a good RB, seems to have dropped off a bit this season, but holds fantasy value as long as he is getting 2nd team reps.

WR: Every year there is some talk of Andre Johnson's demise, but, not unlike Anquin Boldin in Baltimore, Johnson always manages to produce, and big, when the team utilizes him in the game plan. What I mean to say is the only thing that keeps some players from being the best is the "spread the ball around" mentality big in the NFL these days. If you spread the ball around to people less effective than the one you should be getting the ball to, is it really an advantage to your team? I understand the variety necessary to keep coverages loose, but you have to be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. In a sense every man in the NFL is a playmaker, or he wouldn't be there. But coaches know who should be buttering their bread, I think sometimes they try to be too fancy. Anyway, next year in fantasy football Johnson will be a top 5 wide receiver again, it would help him stay there if the team drafted a steady compliment to him. Devier Posey, LeStar Jean, these are guys who do what Johnson does, and not nearly as well. Kevin Walter is what they need more of, or at least, somebody who can do the type of things he is good at, like picking up 4 yards when you need it and moving the chains. For this game I am sure Johnson will be double covered in every passing situation, let's see if the Texans realize this and go to him on running downs. Fantasy-wise for 2013, no Houston receiver other than Johnson is draftable unless a clear-cut #2 emerges in the offseason. If you are gonna place a bet, put it on a draft pick (would be 3rd in 3 years for them) or Posey, who has some flash.

TE: Here is where I think the Texans have their best chance of outwitting the Patriots Sunday. If they can use Daniels and Casey at the same time they can loosen up coverage on the outside for the wideouts and disguise some run plays that much better. They would also have 2 very capable pass-catchers on the field for Schaub to use as outlets when the crowd gets loud in Foxboro. I know we live in an age when everything is specialized and there is a personnel package also in football for every situation. One would think you'd have better success at fooling your opponent if you rarely tip your hand and run the same players and formations all the time, but again, what do I know? Fantasy-wise, for 2013, Daniels will be a middle-of-the-road prospect if he's healthy and can hold off whichever rookie they bring in, I have him now as TE #17.

Defense/Special Teams: As stated, Houston's defense is over-rated as a whole at this point in the season. As goes Watt goes the defense. The special teams is nothing special and will not be a difference maker on Sunday. With some offseason help this team will cement its top 10 status in fantasy drafts in 2013.

Kicker: Shayne Graham is a top-tier kicker and has been playing like a fantasy superstar the last few weeks, not coincidentally because of the Texans' recent failings in the red zone. Still, I wonder if he can kick one to win it with 2 seconds left in a frigid Foxboro. There's no such track record. For fantasy in 2013, you could do much worse at kicker.

II. New England: The Patriots sit yet again as the favorites to win another Super Bowl and, after a week of rest, are coming to play at home to a sold-out crowd. Their defense has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy players in 2012, but is really a mediocre unit when it comes preventing yardage and scores. They have their moments, surely enough to at least slow the opposition down enough so Brady can outscore them. They have also come up big when needed several times this season. The offense needs no mention and consistently puts up points on just about everyone. Don't expect that to change on Sunday.

QB: Why some people don't like Tom Brady (I've even heard "I hate Brady" more than I care to remember) I really can't say, except the obvious: people are jealous of his money, his success, his gorgeous famous wife, and all that, but maybe it's just because he whips these folks' favorite teams all the time. He is a winner, a clutch player, a fiery competitor who hates losing, a leader by example, and a guy you want on your team when you need some fast points. He does have a tendency to seek the man rather than the open route, something all the greats do, and like every QB except perhaps a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, can get rattled in the pocket and be forced into mistakes, but these are all nitpicking when it comes to Brady. He prepares like the best and executes with the best, and to top it off he is a proven multiple Super Bowl winner and sure-fire Hall Of Famer. Fantasy-wise in 2013, he won't be available after QB3 and if he is, sell the farm to get him, as he shows no sign of slowing down.

RB: Stevan Ridley, in my opinion, can be even better than his breakout 2012 shows. Constantly losing carries to Woodhead and others for the sake of Belichick's successful insistence on imbalance probably cost him a couple hundred yards and about 6 TDs. He is not unlike the BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Patriots lost to the Bengals and fills the role well, even if he hasn't proven to be quite as good at the goal line yet. Shane Vereen will also get a carry here and there, but Danny Woodhead is the perennial wildcard that has earned these Patriots a lot of needed first downs, and who has provided many a spark to his team. They have enough to win a ground game, but I am not sure they will have success going that route this week against Houston. Fantasy-wise, Ridley is currently my RB #13, and Woodhead makes an appearance on my 2013 list late, too.

WR: Considering how good this team is and how many points they drop on people you would think this group to be world-beaters, but really they are not. Wes Welker is solid, though not what he once was as far as quicks go, and Brandon Lloyd is a seasoned veteran also who has golden hands, but who disappointed for most of the season before finally coming on strong as of late. I suggest the reason for their comparative small numbers is attributable to the great tight ends on the roster which we shall discuss in a moment. These guys are capable plenty and the Texans better not sleep on them, but they aren't the main threat. For fantasy football in 2013 so far I have Welker ranked perhaps "low" at 15, as I anticipate even further decline, and Lloyd at WR #31.

TE: Here is where the Patriots still kill people. Everyone knows Brady will be looking for Rob Gronkowski around the end zone, and about 20 yards down the seam, they double cover the Gronk, and still it's 6 points on the board. There are just so many weapons here it is difficult to shut the whole team down. You as a defense almost certainly have to rely on 1-on-1 matchup successes or you are doomed, or better rely on luck and a lot of turnovers. To top it off there is Gronk's partner in crime Aaron Hernandez, who when not battling one injury or another is a top 3 or 4 TE prospect himself. Next season in fantasy Gronkowski will likely be drafted again in rounds 1-3, and if he lasts to round 3 he better be yours. Hernandez won't last much longer than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 TDs from the tight end position on Sunday.

Defense/Special Teams: The best you can say is that this defensive unit could be great on Sunday against the Texans. If they are Championship caliber they are barely so, but they should have a strong game on Sunday. They are just not dominant often enough, leaving the offense to have to score a lot of points too often. Their special teams are better than average even if they rarely return kicks for TDs.

Kicker: Gostkowski can hit from 50 in Foxboro and that's good enough. He'll again be a top kicker chosen in fantasy drafts in 2013.

PREDICTED SCORE: I think Houston will come out determined and get some early stops against the Patriots, but they won't be able to keep it up long enough. Expect the Patriots firepower to eventually expose this Houston defense. QB edge to Pats, RB edge to Texans, WRs even, home field to Patriots, defense to Texans, kickers even, big TE edge to Pats. PATRIOTS 38 Texans 23.