Before every Super Bowl we are asked the question whether the teams playing the games are the ones which "should" be there. For the next week and a half you're going to hear lots of times about teams "getting hot at the right time" and "catching breaks" or being "the healthiest they've been all season." What holds more true still is that football is a game of inches, that is the smallest accounted-for distance on a 100 yard football field. Between getting first downs and not, or getting in the end zone or not, or as we have seen many times this season, making the field goal or not (aka Mason "Bing" Crosby, or David "Ding" Akers") is a matter of inches, sometimes even an inch or less. A missed third-and-1, even by one inch, doesn't look like it can make much difference, but in the end it is the accumulation of these misses that cost a team the game. This is why what seems like parity is really a result of the changing nature of the game. Who will win any game now is only determined maybe 50% by the actual performances of the players on the field. The rest results from coaching decisions, personnel packages, lineup configurations, game plans, and other things players do not control. The game is even time-controlled by more than the clock, as time outs are adjusted in length, and official time outs called, to account for broadcasting requirements.
What can a fantasy football player glean from all this? Well, keep in mind that, probably for the worse but for better or worse, we are in the Age Of Specialization. Whereas in the past players put it all out on the field every play, some starters not even getting warmed up until the 2nd quarter and playing until they were too gassed to play any more, at which point the backups came in, today things are very different. Rotation of players to keep them "fresh" is becoming as commonplace as formations which change nearly every play, perhaps - as I have said before - giving more away about the play they plan to run instead of disguising it. The rotation of players can have the same effect. I can tell you this, nether I nor anyone I know who has played the game, one of these men having played on the pro level and several into college, would ever want to come out of a football game. Adrenaline doesn't come on and off like that, you can't get "into" the game like that. But it is a future we must anticipate, as sure to become more commonplace as the twelve men that now do the job of one head coach. We must change our strategy to reflect this state of affairs.
How will I personally do it? Well, until it becomes an every down thing for every skill position player, a fantasy player's first priority would seem to be finding out which of these NFL players are going to be on the field the most. Sure, "playing time" has always been a factor when drafting fantasy teams, and a big one at that. But from team to team now, during the transition to full-blown timeshares at every ball-carrying spot except QB, there will be dramatic differences in how teams will use their personnel. For every Calvin Johnson taking 90% of the snaps there will be several Josh Gordons seeing 50% of them. Determining who will be Calvins and who Joshes will be the fantasy player's top priority.
On the other hand, GIVEN that most NFL players utilized by fantasy gamers will be part-timers anyway, one cannot neglect the need to identify the most skilled players, that is, those who will make for the most difference when they are on the field. Discerning between, say, Donnie Avery and TY Hilton for 2013, may require one forget at this point the "playing time" effect and instead go for the "big play" possibility.
All in all, the luck factor becomes more and more real as fantasy rolls on. Given all the variables, soon it will become in fantasy as office pools have become, something anyone can play, using defaults or computer settings and/or recommendations, and still stand a chance to win. Sure, us students of the game might have a little advantage, but just reflect on your own past season's successes and failures, and look at the rosters of your teams. My guess is that, more often than not, it was NOT your best rosters that won you your championships, and that some of your best-drafted teams won diddly.
So maybe it's not all that bad. Considering the number of teams I've played, and the number of Championships I've brought home, maybe I'd be the kind to benefit from a little more emphasis on luck...and maybe you would be too.
THE SUPER BOWL
All this to give you my prediction for the Super Bowl. I said last week that whoever won the NFC Championship game would have a hard time beating the winner of the AFC game, and I am going to stay with that prediction. Baltimore will win for Ray Lewis, and though I am not a big fan of his character, and I have a lot of questions about how genuine some of the things he says and does are, he is a natural born motivator and he knows how to play the game of football. The 49ers came up big last week with their backs to the wall, but they didn't impress me much. The man here, though, is still Frank Gore, who commands a LOT of defensive attention when he is on the field, and he still plays like a kid. Where all the talk is about "win one for Frank" I have no idea, but I would not be surprised if San Francisco lost this game and Gore still got the MVP, crazy as that sounds. If Baltimore's defense forgets about Frank Gore in their scurry to prepare for Kaepernick, that would be a big mistake. Regardless, I say BALTIMORE 31 San Francisco 28.
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