AFC South
Houston Texans: A strong team got even stronger through a pretty good draft. As a team, though, you have to question what it will take to make the next step, a leap forward many have predicted the last three years. They need to go from contender to Super Bowl. This draft was so good you could make the argument that they now have all the pieces and this is the year. Doubts still linger, though. Can Matt Schaub win the big ones, under pressure? Is the back end of that defense shored up enough to prevent late comebacks by Texan opponents? Can they find somebody to take at least some pressure off of Andre Johnson?
DeAndre Hopkins, the team's first pick, has the attitude and second gear (both during a play and through a game) to be a difference maker, and is a perfect downfield threat as Andre Johnson now becomes more of a possession receiver, albeit a dandy one. With Owen Daniels in the middle this offense is now locked and loaded. Can Schaub deliver the football, and is Kubiak aggressive enough to speed up the tempo? DJ Swearinger, I swear (as does he), will be an impact player at the NFL level. Both these first picks reflect aggressive attitudes, which is exactly what this team needs, more JJ Wattishness. But again, will the head coach unleash the fury that this team could be? This may be his last chance so he should come out swinging. Third selection Brennan Williams will help the OL. Sam Montogomery was a steal at pick #95, if he can stay focused that Texans DL could be monstrously disruptive. Trevardo Williams ensures depth on the edge. I liked this draft except for the Round 6 picks, as I believe there was better value to be had from a talent perspective, which is what you're looking for in late round fliers. Grade: A-
Fantasy Implications: Hopkins should win the Houston #2 WR job. Historically, that status has not been a very lucrative fantasy goldmine, however, it is arguable that the Texans have never had anyone of the caliber of The Cannibal at WR #2. This, coupled with the attention still given Johnson, makes Hopkins someone very draftable, but proceed with caution. Remember he still has to beat out last year's draftees. In the best case scenario for Hopkins, he becomes the next Andre Johnson.
Indianapolis Colts: Coming into this draft, up-and-coming Colts had a few problem spots to address, especially on the interior of the offensive line. They also needed an upgrade over departed Dwight Freeney, to put some more pressure on the passer and help out in run situations. The secondary is also a work in progress. It should be noted that the Colts had been active in free agency in the months prior to the draft, signing journeymen center Samson Satele, guard Donald Thomas, and tackle Gosder Cherilus, among others, to try and fortify that line for Andrew Luck. On defense, the offseason brought Aubrayo Franklin, Vontae Davis, and LaRon Landry. To say that the Colts defense will have a different look in 2013 is an understatement. All of these defenders, and probably all the linemen too, will start for the team. In a way, the Colts used free agency as a draft, especially considering the players they picked up.
As for the draft itself, they got a raw but possible difference maker at DE by picking Bjorn Woerner. Scouts were all over the place on this kid, but he is relatively new to the game, yet is aware of many of its nuances. It also helps that he has played with some of the best players in the country, and against some of the best in all the land. He will start right away, soon getting more playing time than Ricky Jean-Francois, and definitely part of any rotation. They simply need him to play, don't be surprised if they move him, or someone else around, to keep him on the field all three downs. Hugh Thornton plays with heart and motor but was a bit of a reach with the team's 3rd Round pick. Khaled Holmes, selected in Round 4, is a much better pick, but both these linemen are versatile and should settle in somewhere in short order. Montori Hughes was an excellent value pick in Round 5. Yes, the team went directly for needs, ignoring more talented players at other spots, and apparently confident that Davis and Landry have fixed the leaky secondary. But they were solid picks in any case, showing an attempt to fortify the toughest spots to fill. If you don't value DBs very highly....Grade: B-
Fantasy Implications: Andrew Luck's value goes up. He was awful good last year. Considering he had no time to throw the ball on too many occasions, usually due to unacceptable pressure directly up the middle (the hole still left behind by Jeff Saturday), if these draft picks, and free agents, can help seal those seams just a second longer, Luck becomes one of the top five fantasy QBs in 2013, regardless of how many games the Colts win or lose, bet on it. Other than that, Kerwynn Williams has some talent, but he is raw and still learning the position, it will take a lot for him to unseat Donald Brown as Vick Ballard's backup. Williams might make Delone Carter and Deji Karim expendable, though.
Tennessee Titans: Another team with many positions of need is the Tennessee Titans. It is true, as many have already said, that problems up front on the line, lack of pressure on the QB, bad tackling, the lack of leadership on both sides of the ball, and many similar problems exist on this team, and it will indeed take more than this draft to deal with all of them and make the Titans a contender. Yet, I like the fact that this team is taking its lumps while building from the inside-out, that is, by trying to strengthen the trenches first. In fact this is the Titans' really main deficiency. Their offense is decent even with Locker or Fitzpatrick behind center, and their skill position players are pretty darned good. The defense needs a linebacker or two and some DB help, but all in all it caused quite a few turnovers last year, and had its moments.
The Tennessee draft, with the exception of the choice of WR Justin Hunter in Round 2, tried to directly address the team's starting lineup needs. Hunter was a luxury pick, perhaps Kenny Britt insurance. I like the potential, but not with other more pressing needs. Chance Warmack will start in short time and try and help give Fitzpatrick more than 2.4 seconds to throw. He was a solid pick at #10, slightly higher than he should have been selected, but the Titans needed him, and Munchak, perhaps justifiably, will always defer to linemen in a push. Bidi Wreh-Wilson will get playing time also, there is no telling yet how much. He, too, was selected slightly higher that he should have been, again because of need, but also because of the run on DBs. Their second Round 3 pick, and their picks in Rounds 4 and 5, are where the Titans flexed their draft acumen. Zaviar Gooden will make a veteran expendable at LB, as will Brian Schwenke on the OL. Lavar Edwards, a DE/LB tweener, is a poor man's Dion Jordan, a steal in the 5th Round, and a starter by season's end. Grade: B, would be a solid A had they grabbed a pass rusher instead of Hunter.
Fantasy Implications: Hunter, who will be at least a WR #3 on this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will be new-look in more ways than one in 2013. One thing is for certain. The draft has come and gone and still the starting QB job will come down Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, as the Jags didn't even point in the general direction of a signal caller. Interesting facts about Blaine Gabbert have recently come to light, such as which mostly say that his sub-par play so far has been more due to the inefficiency of his offensive line than his accuracy and decision-making. But time to throw is not all about the line. Little sidesteps and movements while in the pocket, which actually open up the pocket and give the blockers time, were absent from Gabbert's game. When he got thrown off his reads, his movements and decisions were routinely the wrong ones. His peripheral vision is Kevin Kolb-like, and very minimal. He locks in on his intended receivers, leading not only to incompletions and interceptions, but also to clues picked up on by all the defenders. This, in turn, makes it difficult to sustain a block. All this to say the Jags will struggle again under Gabbert, and I am not even sure his teammates are on board. I fully expect to see Henne play before the halfway point of the season, for the simple reason that he has better pocket presence and awareness.
So, the big story being the Jaguars NOT choosing a QB, what did they do with their eight picks? Luke Joeckel is a good pick no matter what, they almost had to take him. John Cyprien could turn out to be the top DB in this entire draft class, unheralded a bit being from a smaller school, but a machine in the defensive backfield and a playmaker as well, He might need a bit of help with learning coverage schemes, but he has the heart and the tools to pay big dividends for the Jaguars quickly. Dwayne Gratz will also contribute immediately, will struggle a bit, but will play anyway. Ace Sanders will probably play special teams or return kicks, but the WR chosen one pick later, Denard Robinson, could be opposite Cecil Shorts sooner than later, and was probably a better selection. Obviously Jacksonville didn't need two WRs, but rightfully they snagged an available Robinson. I like Josh Evans, too, and consider him a steal in Round 6. Grade: A, and probably wise to wait until 2014 to bring in a rookie QB.
Fantasy Implications: Sanders and Robinson could be factors, especially Robinson. He has Percy Harvin-like versatility. Considering Justin Blackmon's problems, Massaquoi's ineffectiveness, and Shipley's slowing down and aging, by necessity alone either one or the other could contribute quickly. Just remember who is throwing the ball. The fortunes of the Jaguars WRs will rise as soon as Henne gets the starting job.
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